State-by-State Margins Oct. 31


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 18%
Massachusetts 14%
Vermont 13%
Rhode Island 13%
Illinois 12%
Maryland 11%
Maine 11%
Connecticut 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Wisconsin 8%
New Jersey 8%
Delaware 7%
California 7%
Washington 6%
Oregon 6%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Pennsylvania 3%
Minnesota 3%
Florida 2%
New Mexico 1%
Michigan 1%
Iowa 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming 36%
Oklahoma 33%
Nebraska 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Louisiana 26%
Kansas 23%
Texas 22%
South Dakota 22%
Montana 21%
North Dakota 20%
Indiana 19%
South Carolina 18%
Alabama 18%
Kentucky 17%
Tennessee 12%
Georgia 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
North Carolina 9%
Mississippi 9%
West Virginia 8%
Arkansas 8%
Ohio 5%
Missouri 5%
Colorado 5%
Arizona 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 4%
Hawaii 1%
States that are exactly tied: Nevada New Hampshire
Back to the main page Previous report

If you like this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.