Apr. 14 absentee ballot for overseas voters

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

 
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News: Updated Apr. 14


Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
McCain beats both ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%
 
In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better.
Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly
But white centers are statistical ties.

Democratic primaries Republican primaries Obama vs. McCain Clinton vs. McCain


News from the Votemaster

The candidates are skirmishing about whether the people in rural Pennsylvania are depressed about having their jobs shipped overseas. Maybe they could stop bickering long enough to suggest what they would do about the problem? Is it too much to expect that during a campaign the candidates would talk about their approaches to dealing with the nation's problems? You might expect that either one could score points by saying: "If I am elected, this is what I am going to do to help you..." But instead it looks like Lee Atwater is alive and well in Pennsylvania. In the absence of any polls today or any actual political news on the presidential front, let's go back to the discussion of the Senate started last week.

On April 9 we listed how liberal interest groups rated all the senators. Today we have ratings from the conservative interest groups. What is most striking is how polarized the Senate has become. With one exception, Ben Nelson (D-NE), even the least conservative Republican is more conservative than the most conservative Democrat. It was not like this at all in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. It is not so much that the Democrats have become more liberal as that the Republican party has been completely purged of the likes of Dwight Eisenhower, Nelson Rockefeller, Jacob Javits, and many other moderate Republicans. While Democrats have rid themselves of people like Sen. James Eastland (D-MS) and Sen. John Stennis (D-MS), there are still plenty of conservative Democrats around and not so many liberal firebrands like Barbara Boxer (D-CA). This incredible polarization is why the Senate has basically ceased to function. It used to be that most senators worked across the aisle. Now if a senator has lunch with a senator from the other party he or she can count on this as forming the basis for an attack ad come reelection time.

Also of note is that Barack Obama, with a conservative rating of 11% and Hillary Clinton, at 9%, hardly differ at all, and neither is anywhere near being the most liberal or most conservative Democrat. Interestingly enough, John McCain, at 73%, comes off as more moderate when rated by the conservative groups than when rated by the liberal groups. One might have thought that since the liberal groups clearly dislike McCain's voting record, the conservative groups would embrace it, but that is not the case. The difference could lie in precisely which votes each group counted.

The much-maligned Joe Lieberman (I-CT), whom progressives think of as a crypto-Republican, is slightly less conservative than their hero, Russ Feingold (D-WI).

Consider this: Of the 49 Republican senators, the one in the middle of the list, Richard Shelby (R-AL), has a conservative rating of 83%. The middle Democrat (counting Lieberman and Bernie Sanders as Democrats) is Ron Wyden (D-OR) at 10%. That's a 73% gap between the median Republican and the median Democrat. Is it any wonder than the Senate can't get anything done any more? The problem isn't that the senators can't agree on abortion and gay marriage. Nobody expects them to. The real problem is that this incessant ideological warfare on a few hot-button issues has kept the Senate from doing business on many other issues where left to their own devices, the senators could probably find common ground. After all, if John McCain (73% conservative rating) and Teddy Kennedy (7% conservative rating) could sit down together and write an immigration bill, a lot is possible.

Additional ratings from other interest groups can be found at www.vote-smart.org.

The eight groups used in this study are:

ACU - American Conservative Union
ATR - Americans for Tax Reform
CWA - Concern Women for America
Club4 - Club for Growth
Eagle - Eagle Forum
FRC - Family Research Council
RTL - Right to Life
TVC - Traditional Values Coalition

The data is available for download in .csv format so you can slice and dice the data as you wish. The ratings are for 2007 where available, otherwise for 2006. Actually, only the Eagle Forum had 2007 data, so all the others are 2006. For Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), some of his votes were made as a House member before he was appointed to the Senate.

The ratings by the liberal groups are here .

Senator State ACU ATR CWA Club4 Eagle FRC RTL TVC Mean
Jim DeMint (R) South Carolina 100% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 97%
John Ensign (R) Nevada 100% N/A 100% 93% 100% 100% 100% 80% 96%
Tom Coburn (R) Oklahoma 100% 85% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 96%
John Barrasso (R) Wyoming N/A N/A N/A 90% N/A 100% N/A N/A 95%
Saxby Chambliss (R) Georgia 96% 90% 100% 93% 100% 100% 100% 80% 95%
Jim Bunning (R) Kentucky 96% 90% 100% 87% 100% 100% 100% 80% 94%
James Inhofe (R) Oklahoma 100% 90% 100% 80% 100% 100% 100% 80% 94%
Jon Kyl (R) Arizona 92% 95% 100% 93% 89% 100% 100% 80% 94%
Johnny Isakson (R) Georgia 96% 90% 100% 79% 100% 100% 100% 80% 93%
John Sununu (R) New Hampshire 88% 95% 100% 80% 78% 100% 100% 100% 93%
David Vitter (R) Louisiana 92% 95% 100% 73% 100% 100% 100% 80% 93%
John Thune (R) South Dakota 100% 85% 100% 73% 100% 100% 100% 80% 92%
Jeff Sessions (R) Alabama 92% N/A 100% 73% 100% 100% 100% 80% 92%
John Cornyn (R) Texas 96% 90% 100% 80% 89% 100% 100% 80% 92%
Michael Enzi (R) Wyoming 96% 90% 100% 69% 100% 100% 100% 80% 92%
Charles Grassley (R) Iowa 88% 80% 100% 73% 100% 100% 100% 80% 90%
Mike Crapo (R) Idaho 88% 85% 100% 67% 100% 100% 100% 80% 90%
Wayne Allard (R) Colorado 88% 95% 100% 67% 89% 100% 100% 80% 90%
Elizabeth Dole (R) North Carolina 96% 80% 100% 62% 100% 100% 100% 80% 90%
Pat Roberts (R) Kansas 84% 90% 100% 40% 100% 100% 100% 80% 87%
Lindsey Graham (R) South Carolina 83% 95% 100% 92% 44% 100% 100% 80% 87%
Richard Burr (R) North Carolina 92% 90% 100% 100% 89% 85% 75% 60% 86%
Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky 84% 95% 100% 53% 78% 100% 100% 80% 86%
Sam Brownback (R) Kansas 87% 90% 100% 80% 56% 85% 100% 80% 85%
Richard Shelby (R) Alabama 74% 80% 100% 40% 89% 100% 100% 80% 83%
Roger Wicker (R) Mississippi 88% 86% 100% 2% 100% 100% 100% 85% 83%
Mel Martinez (R) Florida 84% 95% 100% 60% 38% 100% 100% 80% 82%
Kit Bond (R) Missouri 80% 90% 100% 13% 89% 100% 100% 80% 82%
Larry Craig (R) Idaho 88% 95% 100% 50% 67% 71% 100% 80% 81%
Chuck Hagel (R) Nebraska 75% N/A 100% 50% 44% 100% 100% 100% 81%
Bob Corker (R) Tennessee N/A N/A N/A 60% N/A 100% N/A N/A 80%
Kay Hutchison (R) Texas 84% 90% 100% 53% 78% 85% 75% 60% 78%
Orrin Hatch (R) Utah 84% N/A 100% 47% 89% 85% 75% 60% 77%
Pete Domenici (R) New Mexico 75% 90% 100% 15% 56% 100% 100% 80% 77%
Norm Coleman (R) Minnesota 68% 75% 100% 33% 56% 85% 100% 80% 75%
Ben Nelson (D) Nebraska 64% 95% 89% 7% 100% 85% 75% 80% 74%
Judd Gregg (R) New Hampshire 72% 95% 100% 47% 50% 71% 75% 80% 74%
Lamar Alexander (R) Tennessee 72% 90% 100% 33% 67% 85% 75% 60% 73%
John McCain (R) Arizona 65% 80% 100% 100% 38% 42% 75% 80% 73%
Robert Bennett (R) Utah 72% 90% 100% 40% 56% 85% 75% 60% 72%
Richard Lugar (R) Indiana 64% 75% 100% 67% 33% 71% 75% 60% 68%
Thad Cochran (R) Mississippi 67% 80% 100% 13% 63% 85% 75% 60% 68%
Gordon Smith (R) Oregon 72% 90% 100% 47% 56% 57% 50% 60% 67%
George Voinovich (R) Ohio 56% 50% 89% 29% 33% 85% 100% 60% 63%
Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska 71% 95% 100% 20% 44% 57% 50% 60% 62%
Ted Stevens (R) Alaska 64% 95% 100% 13% 33% 57% 50% 60% 59%
John Warner (R) Virginia 64% 80% 100% 15% 44% 57% 50% 60% 59%
Susan Collins (R) Maine 48% 60% 78% 27% 44% 28% 0% 60% 43%
Arlen Specter (R) Pennsylvania 43% 70% 88% 13% 25% 28% 0% 60% 41%
Olympia Snowe (R) Maine 36% 50% 78% 27% 33% 28% 0% 60% 39%
Mary Landrieu (D) Louisiana 24% 30% 67% 13% 22% 42% 50% 40% 36%
Robert Byrd (D) West Virginia 21% 10% 56% 7% 67% 14% 50% 40% 33%
Mark Pryor (D) Arkansas 20% 25% 56% 7% 33% 14% 50% 40% 31%
Kent Conrad (D) North Dakota 33% 15% 33% 7% 44% 42% 25% 40% 30%
Bill Nelson (D) Florida 40% 35% 33% 7% 44% 0% 25% 40% 28%
Bob Casey (D) Pennsylvania N/A N/A N/A 7% N/A 42% N/A N/A 25%
Tim Johnson (D) South Dakota 12% 10% 25% 0% 22% 14% 50% 60% 24%
Tom Carper (D) Delaware 20% 15% 33% 14% 33% 0% 25% 20% 20%
Claire McCaskill (D) Missouri N/A N/A N/A 40% N/A 0% N/A N/A 20%
Ken Salazar (D) Colorado 17% 10% 44% 7% 13% 14% 25% 20% 19%
Evan Bayh (D) Indiana 16% 15% 11% 36% 11% 14% 25% 20% 19%
Byron Dorgan (D) North Dakota 12% 5% 0% 7% 44% 28% 25% 20% 18%
Harry Reid (D) Nevada 12% 10% 11% 7% 11% 0% 50% 40% 18%
Max Baucus (D) Montana 8% 25% 11% 7% 22% 14% 0% 40% 16%
Russ Feingold (D) Wisconsin 8% 15% 0% 80% 0% 0% 0% 20% 15%
Blanche Lincoln (D) Arkansas 8% 20% 0% 14% 22% 14% 0% 40% 15%
Herbert Kohl (D) Wisconsin 16% 15% 14% 7% 11% 0% 25% 20% 14%
Joseph Lieberman (I) Connecticut 17% 15% 33% 7% 0% 14% 0% 20% 13%
Daniel Inouye (D) Hawaii 8% 5% 33% 7% 0% 0% 25% 20% 12%
Barack Obama (D) Illinois 8% 15% 11% 33% 0% 0% 0% 20% 11%
Ben Cardin (D) Maryland 8% 14% 29% 7% 14% 0% 0% 14% 11%
Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio 25% 18% 31% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
Debbie Stabenow (D) Michigan 16% 5% 0% 7% 33% 0% 0% 20% 10%
John Kerry (D) Massachusetts 12% 15% 0% 7% 11% 14% 0% 20% 10%
Ron Wyden (D) Oregon 8% 10% 11% 7% 22% 0% 0% 20% 10%
Dianne Feinstein (D) California 0% 10% 11% 7% 11% 14% 0% 20% 9%
Jeff Bingaman (D) New Mexico 8% 10% 22% 13% 0% 0% 0% 20% 9%
Hillary Clinton (D) New York 8% 10% 11% 11% 11% 0% 0% 20% 9%
Tom Harkin (D) Iowa 8% 5% 11% 13% 11% 0% 0% 20% 9%
Charles Schumer (D) New York 4% 5% 11% 7% 11% 0% 0% 25% 8%
Joseph Biden (D) Delaware 4% 10% 0% 17% 11% 0% 0% 20% 8%
Patrick Leahy (D) Vermont 0% 10% 11% 7% 11% 0% 0% 20% 7%
Bernard Sanders (I) Vermont 8% 14% 15% 7% 0% 0% 0% 14% 7%
Daniel Akaka (D) Hawaii 0% 5% 11% 7% 0% 14% 0% 20% 7%
Barbara Mikulski (D) Maryland 0% 5% 11% 7% 11% 0% 0% 20% 7%
Maria Cantwell (D) Washington 12% 15% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 20% 7%
Edward Kennedy (D) Massachusetts 0% 5% 0% 9% 0% 14% 0% 25% 7%
Jon Tester (D) Montana N/A N/A N/A 13% N/A 0% N/A N/A 7%
Jim Webb (D) Virginia N/A N/A N/A 13% N/A 0% N/A N/A 7%
Barbara Boxer (D) California 8% 5% 0% 7% 11% 0% 0% 20% 6%
Carl Levin (D) Michigan 8% 5% 0% 7% 11% 0% 0% 20% 6%
Dick Durbin (D) Illinois 4% 5% 11% 7% 0% 0% 0% 20% 6%
Patty Murray (D) Washington 4% 15% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 20% 6%
John Rockefeller (D) West Virginia 10% 5% 11% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
Frank Lautenberg (D) New Jersey 0% 5% N/A 7% 0% 0% 0% 20% 5%
Bob Menendez (D) New Jersey 4% 5% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 20% 5%
Jack Reed (D) Rhode Island 4% 5% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 20% 5%
Amy Klobuchar (D) Minnesota N/A N/A N/A 7% N/A 0% N/A N/A 4%
Sheldon Whitehouse Rhode Island N/A N/A N/A 7% N/A 0% N/A N/A 4%
Christopher Dodd (D) Connecticut 8% 5% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1503 1639 +136   1334   278  
NY Times 1475 1632 +157 12 1162 142 232 5
AP 1503 1639 +136 18 1334 257 278 14
CNN 1488 1631 +143 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1488 1631 +143 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1495 1633 +138 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1511 1646 +135 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.



-- The Votemaster
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