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REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Democratic primaries and caucuses

 
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News: Updated Feb. 03


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News from the Votemaster

CNN has reported that Mitt Romney won the Maine caucuses with 52% vs. 21% for John McCain. Ron Paul came in a strong third at 19%

Barack Obama is rising, but he is racing against the clock. In the states he is campaigning in, he is gaining, but there are only two more days to campaign. Also, even if Obama pulls even with Clinton, the details of how the delegates are apportioned matter. In some states it is proportional to the vote, in others it is by congressional district, etc. It is hard to convert a certain amount of lead to a certain amount of delegates.

On the Republican side, the Mac attack goes on. It looks like John McCain will pick up the lion's share of the delegates Tuesday because conservative Republicans are split between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In many states, McCain is expected to get less than half the vote but will get all the delegates due to the Republican party's winner-take-all rules, which were designed to produce precisely this effect--an early nominee. Normally, the winner announces how tough it was and what formidable opponents he had and everyone makes nice and they all fall in line. This effect might not happen in 2008 because so many conservatives as so strongly opposed to McCain due to his principled stands on tax cuts (against), gay marriage amendment (against), illegal immigrants (allow them to become citizens), stem cell research (for), and other hot-button issues. But it is precisely these stands that make him so popular among independents and they make him far and away the strongest Republican general election candidate. It is hard to remember a year in which the core of either party was so virulently against their strongest candidate.

Here are today's polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Arizona Rasmussen Jan. 31 45% 39% 43% 34% 9% 7%
California Suffolk U. Feb. 1 39% 32% 8% 4%
California Zogby Feb. 2 41% 45% 34% 37% 12% 5%
Delaware ARG Feb. 1 44% 42% 41% 35% 7% 5%
Georgia Zogby Feb. 2 28% 48%        
Missouri ARG Feb. 1 42% 44% 29% 27% 31% 4%
Missouri Rasmussen Jan. 31 47% 38% 32% 28% 29% 5%
Missouri Zogby Feb. 2 44% 43% 36% 22% 27% 4%
New Jersey Monmouth U. Feb. 1 50% 36% 55% 23% 7% 3%
New Jersey Zogby Feb. 2 43% 42% 54% 23% 6% 4%
New York Marist Coll. Jan. 31 54% 38% 61% 24% 6% 5%
New York Rasmussen Feb. 1 52% 34% 49% 30% 8% 4%
New York Zogby Feb. 2 49% 23% 8% 6%
Tennessee Crawford Johnson Northcutt Jan. 29 36% 31% 23% 18% 24% 4%
Tennessee Rasmussen Jan. 30 49% 35% 32% 29% 23% 8%

Looking at the January and February polls, here is what the Superduper Tuesday states look like. The most recent poll is always used. If other polls were taken within a week of it, they are all averaged equally.

Democrats

State Clinton Obama Date Pollster
Alabama 43 42 Jan 31 Insid+Surve+Capit
Arizona 45 39 Jan 31 Rasmussen
California 46 38 Feb 02 Five polls
Colorado 32 34 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 44 41 Jan 31 ARG+Surve+Rasmu
Delaware 44 42 Feb 01 ARG
Georgia 32 50 Feb 02 Zogby+Insid
Illinois 32 56 Jan 31 ARG+Rasmu
Massachusetts 50 35 Jan 30 Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota 40 33 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 45 42 Feb 02 Four polls
New Jersey 48 39 Feb 02 Four polls
New York 54 35 Feb 01 Four polls
Oklahoma 44 19 Jan 27 SurveyUSA
Tennessee 48 31 Jan 30 Rasmu+Insid+Crawf


Republicans

State McCain Romney Date Pollster
Alabama 37 18 Jan 31 Four polls
Arizona 43 34 Jan 31 Rasmussen
California 35 28 Feb 02 Six polls
Colorado 24 43 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 46 27 Jan 31 ARG+Surve+Rasmu
Delaware 41 35 Feb 01 ARG
Georgia 35 34 Jan 30 Insider Advantage
Illinois 41 30 Jan 31 ARG+Rasmu
Massachusetts 29 56 Jan 30 Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota 41 17 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 33 27 Feb 02 Four polls
New Jersey 50 25 Feb 02 Four polls
New York 54 25 Feb 02 Four polls
Oklahoma 37 19 Jan 27 SurveyUSA
Tennessee 29 22 Jan 30 Rasmu+Insid+Crawf


The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:

Delegates

Clinton 232 Obama 158     Needed: 2025
McCain 97 Romney 74 Huckabee 29 Paul 6 Needed: 1191


-- The Votemaster
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