Feb. 05 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Electoral vote here
Senate score will go here
House score will go here

REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Democratic primaries and caucuses

 
Senate map with polls
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report
News: Updated Feb. 05


  Primaries/caucuses
Early states Already completed
February 5 February 5
Feb Rest of Feb.
March March
April April
May May
June June
 
RSS


News from the Votemaster

If you have been here before, you might have noticed the new map with bright pretty colors. If you have a feeling it may be up there for the next few months, you're probably right. Barring very unforeseen developments, the Democratic race will go on well beyond today and if Mitt Romney can pull off an upset in California, it might go on for the Republicans, too. The rules are a bit complicated since in some states it is winner-take-all statewide, in others it is winner-take-all per congressional district, and in still others it is strictly proportional to the vote. In most cases, the PLEOs, superdelegates, unpledged delegates, etc. are allocated by yet other rules.

We have polls galore today. All the major polling firms are working overtime to crank out the data. Actually, Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are probably not working overtime--they are completely automated; computers make the calls and prerecorded messages from professional radio announcers are played. ("Press 1 for Clinton, press 2 for Obama".) Few, if any, human beings are in the loop, yet both firms have good track records. For more on polling technology, click on the FAQs link above. Below are the latest polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Alabama SurveyUSA Feb. 3 47% 49% 37% 19% 35% 6%
California SurveyUSA Feb. 3 53% 41% 39% 36% 9% 7%
California SurveyUSA Feb. 4 52% 42% 39% 38% 11% 5%
California Zogby Feb. 3 40% 46% 32% 40% 12% 5%
California Zogby Feb. 4 36% 49% 33% 40% 12% 3%
Connecticut SurveyUSA Feb. 3 46% 48% 52% 30% 7% 6%
Georgia Zogby Feb. 3 31% 48%        
Georgia Zogby Feb. 4 29% 49%        
Illinois SurveyUSA Feb. 3 30% 66% 46% 25% 17% 8%
Massachusetts Suffolk U. Feb. 3 44% 46% 37% 50% 4% 3%
Massachusetts SurveyUSA Feb. 3 56% 39% 37% 58% 3% 1%
Missouri SurveyUSA Feb. 3 54% 43% 33% 28% 31% 6%
Missouri Zogby Feb. 3 47% 42% 35% 24% 27% 5%
Missouri Zogby Feb. 4 42% 45% 34% 25% 27% 4%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 3 48% 43% 52% 30% 9%  
New Jersey SurveyUSA Feb. 3 52% 41% 54% 25% 7% 6%
New Jersey Zogby Feb. 3 43% 43% 52% 26% 7% 4%
New Jersey Zogby Feb. 4 46% 41% 53% 24% 5% 4%
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 3 53% 39% 54% 22% 9%  
New York SurveyUSA Feb. 3 56% 38% 56% 23% 8% 4%
New York Zogby Feb. 3 53% 19% 8% 5%
New York Zogby Feb. 4 56% 20% 7% 2%
Oklahoma SurveyUSA Feb. 3 54% 27% 37% 23% 32% 3%
Texas IVR Jan. 31 48% 38% 29% 30% 20% 8%
Washington SurveyUSA Feb. 3 40% 53% 40% 26% 17% 9%

There have been so many polls this past week it is hard to know what to do with them. Below is a straightforward analysis: just take the most recent poll and all other polls taken within a week of it and average them all equally. The partisan pollsters like Strategic Vision (R) and Lake Research (D) have been ignored as they are in the business of getting candidates elected, not sampling the public's mood. Here are the averages. The "Tot. delegates" column includes the PLEOs, superdelegates, unpledged delegates, etc. See the Jan. 31 posting for the breakdown. More analysis below the tables.

Democrats

State Tot. delegates Clinton Obama Date Pollster
Alabama 60 44 44 Feb 03 Four polls
Alaska 18 ? ?   None
Arizona 67 44 40 Feb 01 Mason+Rasmu
California 441 44 42 Feb 04 Ten polls
Colorado 71 32 34 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 60 46 44 Feb 03 Surve+ARG-1+Surve
Delaware 23 44 42 Feb 01 ARG
Democrats Abroad 11 ? ?   None
Georgia 103 34 50 Feb 04 Seven polls
Idaho 23 ? ?   None in 2008
Kansas 23 ? ?   None in 2008
Illinois 185 30 58 Feb 03 Four polls
Massachusetts 121 50 39 Feb 03 Four polls
Minnesota 88 40 33 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 88 46 43 Feb 04 Eight polls
New Jersey 127 48 40 Feb 04 Nine polls
New Mexico 23 ? ?   None in 2008
New York 281 54 37 Feb 03 Five polls
North Dakota 21 ? ?   None
Oklahoma 47 48 22 Feb 03 Surve+Soone
Tennessee 85 50 32 Feb 02 Four polls
Utah 29 29 53 Feb 01 Dan Jones


Republicans

State Tot. delegates McCain Romney Date Pollster
Alabama 48 37 18 Feb 03 Five polls
Alaska 29 ? ?   None
Arizona 53 43 34 Jan 31 Rasmussen
Arkansas 34 ? ?   None in 2008
California 173 36 35 Feb 04 Ten polls
Colorado 46 24 43 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 30 49 29 Feb 03 Surve+ARG-1+Surve
Delaware 18 41 35 Feb 01 ARG
Georgia 72 32 30 Feb 02 Four polls
Illinois 70 43 26 Feb 03 Four polls
Massachusetts 43 33 55 Feb 03 Four polls
Minnesota 41 41 17 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 58 34 26 Feb 04 Eight polls
Montana 25 ? ?   None in 2008
New Jersey 52 51 26 Feb 04 Nine polls
New York 101 54 23 Feb 04 Eight polls
North Dakota 26 ? ?   None
Oklahoma 41 39 20 Feb 03 Surve+Soone
Republicans Abroad 0 - -   (Not part of party)
Tennessee 55 30 22 Feb 02 Four polls
Utah 36 4 84 Feb 01 Dan Jones
West Virginia 29 ? ?   None in 2008

So, what's going on? Obama is definitely surging everywhere, but whether this will be enough to overcome Clinton's lead remains to be seen. Romney is also moving up in California, but it might be too little too late. Here are some things to watch for. First, California is the big enchilada. The GOP primary is winner-take-all per congressional district. A big win here and someone is on the road to the nomination. The Democratic primary is proportional by congressional district. It is likely that the number of delegates won by Clinton and Obama will be close, but the psychological factor of "winning California" is huge.

Missouri is another state to watch. It is a genuine bellwether, picking the winner in nearly every presidential election since WWII. Also important is the turnout there. If one party has a massive turnout and the other does not, that says something about what might happen in November. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) has been campaigning her heart out for Obama this week, which may help him with women there.

Watch the South. Voters go to the polls in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas today. How do Obama and Clinton play there? Obama will probably get most of the black vote in those states. The South is also of critical important to the Republicans--it is their base. Watch McCain's percentage there. If he can barely muster 35% in the South, that doesn't bode well for November if he is the nominee. Many southern conservatives may stay home on election day. Actually, McCain has achieved a lifetime rating of 82% from the American Conservative Union (vs. an 8% rating for Obama and a 9% rating for Clinton). But some people accept nothing less than perfection.

Something you can't watch, but is still important, are the PLEOs, superdelegates, unpledged delegates, and the like. For the Democrats, these make up 20% of the delegates. For the Republicans, somewhat less. These are party activists and elected politicians, who tend to have a keen sense of which way the wind is blowing. If you are a congressman and you back the wrong elephant, you may come to regret it. Elephants never forget. Donkeys aren't much worse, though.

Watch the Spin Dept.: Tomorrow everybody is going to claim they won. Depends on the meaning of "win." You could define it as (1) the most votes nationwide, (2) the most delegates, (3) the most states, (4) the most electoral votes, or maybe something else. Huckabee will claim victory on the basis of most votes per dollar spent campaigning. Ron Paul will claim victory on the basis of most money raised in Dec. Everybody will think of something. In some cases, the declaration of victory may occur in the same speech announcing that the candidate is dropping out, although probably no one will drop out. It might make sense for Huckabee to drop out since it will be clear tomorrow that he has no chance of winning, but he is doing McCain a huge favor by staying in and splitting the conservative vote, probably allowing McCain to get the nomination with only 40% of the vote. McCain may remember this favor when it comes time to pick a Veep. Huckabee, who is currently unemployed, would appreciate a job, especially one that pays $208,100, is indoor work, and requires no heavy lifting.

Finally, Cook/RT Strategies just released some head-to-head polls for the general election. Here they are.

Democrat Pct Republican Pct
Clinton 41 McCain 45
Obama 45 McCain 43
Clinton 48 Romney 42
Obama 50 Romney 41

If McCain is the GOP nominee, he beats Clinton but loses narrowly to Obama. If Romney is the GOP nominee, it will be a rout. But November is a LOOOONG ways away. A lot can change.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:

Delegates

Clinton 232 Obama 158     Needed: 2025
McCain 97 Romney 92 Huckabee 29 Paul 6 Needed: 1191


-- The Votemaster
Google
WWW www.electoral-vote.com