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News: Updated May 01

McCain McCain won
Romney Romney won
Romney Huckabee won
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News from the Votemaster

Five years ago today, May 1, 2003, President Bush stood on the deck of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln under a banner that read "Mission Accomplish" to announce that major combat operations have ended. That may be so, but minor ones are still going on five years later and they are likely to have a major impact on the election. A recent Gallup poll shows that a record 63% of Americans now think it was a mistake sending troops to Iraq. Right now all the news is about Rev. Jeremiah Wright but by October that will be old news and Iraq will still be an issue. John McCain's oft-repeated comment that it is OK with him if American troops are in Iraq for 100 years is not going to help him no matter how often he points out that American troops have been in Germany and Japan for 60 years. To McCain's credit, when he says this, he always adds "provided there are no American casualties," but many people may not believe we will soon achieve a situation in Iraq with no Americans being killed or injured. Talking Points Memo has put together a video montage showing McCain addressing this question over and over, not always consistently.

Here is a graph of the price of contracts for the Democratic nomination on the Iowa Election Markets. On March 3, 2007, about 14 months ago, a Clinton contract to win $100 cost $44 and an Obama contract cost $37. Now they cost $21 and $74, respectively. Clearly most bettors think Obama will get the nomination. The graph also shows Edwards and ROF (Rest Of Field).

IEM May01

Want to know what the candidates will look like in four years if they win and have the most stressful job in the world? Photoshop experts at PopPhoto give you a sneak preview.

Want to vote on who should be McCain's Veep? Go to CQ Politics VP madness site and choose from 32 potential candidates.

One new primary poll today and it shows the North Carolina primary to be a statistical tie, with Clinton perhaps a hair ahead. If this is true, this is good news for Clinton since a win in North Carolina will really make the superdelegates sit up and take notice. But other polls have shown Obama way ahead in the Tar Heel state.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
North Carolina Insider Advantage Apr. 29 44% 42%

Two new general election polls. McCain will win Arizona (surprise) and any Democrat will win New Jersey (more surprise).

State Clinton McCain Start End Pollster
Arizona 37 53 Apr 24 Apr 27 Arizona State U.
New Jersey 52 38 Apr 24 Apr 28 Monmouth U.
State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Arizona 38 47 Apr 24 Apr 27 Arizona State U.
New Jersey 56 32 Apr 24 Apr 28 Monmouth U.

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Half a dozen supers announced yesterday, splitting roughly 50-50. Basically, this helps Obama since if all the remaining delegates split 50-50, his current lead in delegates remains intact and there are fewer supers left to help Clinton catch up.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC
Washington Post 1593 1724 +131
NY Times 1582 1725 +143
AP 1598 1731 +133
CNN 1593 1730 +137
ABC 1592 1733 +141
CBS 1592 1729 +137
MSNBC 1600 1734 +132

Needed to win: 2025

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster