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News: Updated Feb. 14

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
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News from the Votemaster

It is relatively quiet today. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are focusing on the Wisconsin primary next Tuesday and then the Ohio and Texas primaries March 4. The latter are do or die for Clinton. Her chief booster, James Carville, said that if she doesn't win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, her goose is cooked. She is ahead in the polls in all three, but none of them are recent. Ohio has many older blue collar workers with dubious economic prospects. Pennsylvania is also part of the rust belt, with many displaced blue collar workers from the formerly great steel industry. Texas has a large Latino population. No doubt polling will start in these states as soon as we pass Wisconsin.

If Obama wins two or maybe even one of the above, he will have so much momentum as to be unstoppable. But if Clinton pulls all three of them out of the fire, which at the moment seems plausible, even likely, what then? The delegate totals will be close to a tie. Suppose the PLEOs have to decide the nomination after all? How would that work? In principle each unpledged delegate is a free agent. What does an experienced politican do in a situation like this? Each one could make one of the following choices and defend it as democratic.

      - I am voting for the person who got the most votes nationally
      - I am voting for the person who got the most delegates nationally
      - I am voting for the person who won my state
      - I am voting for the person who won my congressional district

If the same person won all four of them, it will be tough for a PLEO to go the other way. But if Clinton won one or more categories and Obama won one or more categories, a vote either way could be defended. But if the final vote at the convention is 2025 to 2023, that will be very, very painful.

No new polls today.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources. They differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, some sources try to count the PLEOs (Part Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
NY Times 885 916 12 808 139 198 5
AP 1220 1275 26 843 280 242 14
CNN 1211 1253 26 827 286 217 16
ABC 1222 1273 36 819 282 240 14
CBS 1185 1251 26 812 166 199 10

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com