While the 2014 election is almost 2 years away, one fact stands out right now: There are 21 Democratic Senate seats up for election and only 14 Republican seats. Furthermore, In a way, 2014 will be even tougher for the Democrats that 2012 was, although ultimately they picked up two seats then. Their problem is that the Republicans up for reelection are almost all from deep red states, like Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wyoming, which Democrats have almost no chance of winning. Other than Maine, a blue state with a Republican senator, Susan Collins, the only possibility of a Democrat winning a deep red state is a horrible, bloody Republican primary won by a tea party candidate who then proceeds to say something that alienates large numbers of women, as Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock did. All the Democrats can do to aid this process is spend money in the Republican primaries to try to defeat the incumbent and nominate a tea party candidate.

In contrast, the Democrats have vulnerable incumbents in a number of red states, including Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Dakota, and somewhat vulnerable candidates in other states like North Carolina, as well as an open seat in West Virginia. It is conceivable that Democrats could lose as many as six seats, and thus their control of the Senate. In addition to the many vulnerable candidates, in midterm elections, young Democrats and minorities tend not to vote, making the problem worse. Nevertheless, in politics, 2 years is forever.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones following.

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Democratic-held seats

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Begich (D)	(R)	Mark Begich, the former mayor of Anchorage, was personally recruited by then-DSCC chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), even though he had to face then-Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest sitting Republican in Senate history. Stevens was convicted of several felony violations a week before the election, but lost by only 1-point. Stevens' convictions were later thrown out by Attorney General Eric Holder, but by then it was too late. While Stevens won't try to get his old job back (he died in 2010), if Sarah Palin is the Republican nominee, she would be the favorite in this very red state. If Palin doesn't run, any other Republican will at least give Begich a tremendous fight. Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R-AK) would be a tough competitor, but the 2010 GOP Senate nominee, Joe Miller, would give Treadwell fits in the primary if he decides to run.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Pryor (D)	(R)	In 2002, Mark Pryor defeated incumbent senator Tim Hutchinson by 7 points and became so popular the Republicans didn't bother to field a candidate against him in 2008. He is unlikely to be so lucky in 2014. Former governor Mike Huckabee might go for the GOP nomination as could one of the three Republican congressmen, Rick Crawford, Timothy Griffin, or Steve Womack.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Udall (D)	(R)	Colorado is trending Democratic and the Republicans don't have an obvious candidate, so Udall is probably safe. His first cousin, Tom Udall, is the senior senator from New Mexico.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chris Coons (D)	(R)	Chris Coons had the pleasure of running against Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell in a 2010 special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Joe Biden when he became Vice President. He won't be so lucky this time, but Delaware is a very blue state and the Republicans have no bench at all there, so he can serve another five or six terms if he wants to.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Brian Schatz (D)	(R)	After the death of Sen. Daniel Inouye in Dec. 2012, Gov. Neil Abercrombie appointed Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz (D-HI) to the Senate. A special election will be held in Nov. 2014 to fill out the rest of Inouye's term. At 40, Schatz represents a new generation in Hawaii politics. Maybe former governor Linda Lingle will try again, but she ran for the Senate in 2012 and lost. If she doesn't run, the Republicans will be hard pressed to find a serious candidate.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Dick Durbin (D)	(R)	Dick Durbin is majority whip, the second most powerful position in the Senate. He is also from a very blue state, Illinois. If he wants a fourth term, it is his for the asking.

Iowa

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	Tom Harkin will be 75 years old 2 weeks after the 2014 election. He decided that he's been around long enough and will not run for reelection. Iowa is a swing state, and Harkin's departure will set off a chain reaction in both parties as they start dealing with it. Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is the likely Democratic nominee and probably the strongest one the Democrats have. The most visible Republican candidate, Rep. Steve King (R-IA), a conservative firebrand who once said: "I've never heard of a girl getting pregnant from statutory rape or incest," has said he won't run. The only plausible female candidate, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), has decided against running. So the Republicans are back to square 1.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mary Landrieu (D)	(R)	Mary Landrieu could be in for a hard time in 2014. Lousiana is a deep red state and many black Democrats left the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and never returned. Nevertheless, she managed to win in 2008 and has fought hard for the state. Working in her favor is that the Landrieu name is well known in Louisiana. Her father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor of New Orleans, a post now occupied by her brother Mitch Landrieu. Gov Bobby Jindal (R-LA) would be a formiddable opponent, but most people think he is going to run for President in 2016 rather than senator in 2014. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) might run. Despite the redness of the state, Landrieu is still a slight favorite at this point due to her long incumbency and the popularity of her father and brother.

Massachusetts

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	When President Obama nominated Sen. John Kerry to be Secretary of State, he opened the door to Republican control of the Senate in 2014. There will be a special election for Kerry's seat in 2014 and former senator Scott Brown is the most likely Republican nominee and he is unlikely to face a primary. Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) is a probably Democratic candidate, but he may face a primary.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) could have won reelection easily but he decided to retire. He would have been 80 on election day. His retirement will set off a free for all in both parties. Neither party has a front runner, although Rep. Gary Peters probably has a slight edge among Democrats. For the GOP, it may be hard to find a strong candidate, given the Democratic lean of the state.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Al Franken (D)	(R)	Al Franken beat then-senator Norm Coleman in 2008--a Democratic wave year--by just 312 votes after six months of legal wrangling following the election. As a former professional comedian, some people were worried he would spend his time in the Senate shooting off one liners at the Republicans. But he held his tongue, kept his head down, and played the role expected of a junior senator. His Senate colleague, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), just won a 34-point landslide in this blue state. While Franken is not likely to repeat that feat, unless the Republicans can pull a rabbit out of the hat, Franken is likely to win reelection. One conceivable opponent might be Rep. Michele Bachmann. If she is the GOP nominee, it will be an epic battle and Franken has at least a shot at beating Klobuchar's 34-point margin

Montana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	Max Baucus is a moderate Democrat in a state that votes for Republicans in presidential elections but has a long history of voting for Democrats at the state level. He has decided that six terms is enough and he is retiring in 2015. This is going to be a tough seat for the Democrats to hold unless popular former governor Brian Schweitzer decides to go for it. If Schweitzer declines to run, the Republicans will probably pick up the seat.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeanne Shaheen (D)	(R)	New Hampshire is about as friendly to female politicians as you can get. Both senators, both representatives and the the incoming governor are all women. Shaheen is well known in the state, having served two terms as governor before being elected to the Senate in 2008. Unless the Republicans can find an exceptionally strong candidate, she is probably safe in this quirky, but more blue than red, state.

New Jersey

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	With the retirement of Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) for the second time, New Jersey has an open Senate seat. Mayor Cory Booker of Newark (D) will certainly run for it, but he may face a primary challenge. The Republicans have no obvious candidate yet.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tom Udall (D)	(R)	Tom Udall is a mere stripling at 64. He has won two elections as New Mexico Attorney General, five as a congressman, and one as a senator. New Mexico has long since ceased to be a swing state and has become a deep blue state, so this seat is Udall's as long as he wants it. He comes from a very political family. His first cousin, Mark Udall is senator from Colorado, his uncle, Morris Udall, is a congressman from Arizona, and he is also related to Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and to former Oregon senator Gordon Smith.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Kay Hagan (D)	(R)	Kay Hagan beat then senator Elizabeth Dole in the Democratic wave year of 2008 by 8 points, but she was helped a lot by a disatrous ad run by Dole accusing Hagan of taking money from the Godless Americans PAC. The ad was so over the top, that it became a major campaign issue. She won't be so lucky this time, but of course she is now an incumbent in this swing state. North Carolina has no shortage of representatives and statewide officers who might challenge her.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeff Merkley (D)	(R)	Jeff Merkley won a very narrow victory over then-senator Gordon Smith in 2008. In his first time as a senator, he has been a high-profile progressive and one of the leaders of the fight to abolish the filibuster in Jan. 2013. Oregon is a liberal state, and a young (56), progressive, with clear left-of-center positions on many issues, shouldn't have any trouble coasting to reelection.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jack Reed (D)	(R)	Jack Reed is a low-profile guy who avoids the media and concentrates on service to his constitutents. They apparently like that since they elected him to his third term in the Senate in 2008 by a margin of 57% over his Republican challenger, the same margin he got in 2002. No matter who the Republicans nominate, he'll win by more than 50% in 2012.

South Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	Tim Johnson had prostate cancer in 2004 and a cerebral hemorrhage in 2006 while doing a live radio interview. Although he won reelection in 2008, he decided that the sympathy vote would be smaller this time and he bowed out. A possible Democratic candidate is Brendan Johnson, the senator's son, who is a U.S. attorney. For the Republicans, it is likely that former governor Mike Rounds will be the nominee. This state is one the Republicans' best pickup opportunities.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Warner (D)	(R)	Multimillionaire Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia, has announced that he intends to stay in the Senate and not enter the open race for the governor's mansion in 2013. Former governor Tim Kaine (D) just won a decisive sen,ate victory over former Republican senator George Allen who was trying for a comeback. No doubt the Republicans will find a strong candidate in this purple state, but Warner's popularity and ability to self fund the race, makes him the clear favorite.

West Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(D)	(R)	Jay Rockefeller, who will be 77 on election day 2014, decided to call it quits. His retirement will set off a chain reaction in West Virginia politics. All six statewide officers are Democrats, and any or all of them might decide to run for his seat. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, daughter of former West Virginia governor and former felon, Arch Moore, has announced that she is running for the Republican senatorial nomination. On the day she announced a bevy of conservatives immediately attacked her for being too liberal, even though she is by far the best known Republican in the state. A bloody Republican primary is almost a certainty at this point. If the winner comes out broke and the Democrats can settle on a candidate quickly, they might be able to hold the seat. Otherwise it is a likely Republican pickup.

Republican-held seats

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeff Sessions (R)	(D)	Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III is about as Southern as they come and also about as conservative as they come. He voted for everything George W. Bush put in front of the Senate except TARP and opposed everything President Obama wanted passed. He got 63% of the vote in 2008, although that was against an unknown black woman who son was currently serving time in federal prison. If the Democrats can come up with a white man with a solid track record, they might be able to keep Sessions below 60%.

Georgia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	(D)	Although Saxby Chambliss is a conservative Republican, he is at least willing to talk to the Democrats from time to time. However, that is enough of a sin to make it all but certain he would have faced a primary in 2014--and lost. Rather than go down to a tea party challenge, he has announced that he will not run for reelection. Reps Paul Broun (R-GA), Phil Gengrey (R-GA), and Jack Kingston (R-GA), quickly signed up to run in the Republican primary. Then former George Secretary of State, Karen Handel (R), also joined the fray. Handel was the executive at the Susan G. Komen Foundation who caused an uproar when she withdrew funding from Planned Parenthood because some of their clinics provide abortions, in addition to cancer screening and other services. The Republican primary will be a race to see who can run fastest to the right. If the winner is extreme enough AND the Democrats can land a suitable centrist nominee, the Democrats might have a slight chance to pick up the seat, but all the stars would have to align for that to happen.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jim Risch (R)	(D)	Jim Risch has had an interesting history, running for lieutenant governor at a time when he was actually governor (as a result of a gubernatorial vacancy when then-governor Dirk Kempthorne resigned the governorship to become George W. Bush's Secretary of the Interior). In 2008, he ran for the Senate and won. He is expected to run for reelection in 2014 and win easily.

Kansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Pat Roberts (R)	(D)	Pat Roberts has run for Congress six times: three times for the House in KS-01 and three times for the Senate. The worst he has even done is 60% of the vote, which he got in 2008, when he beat the Democratic candidate by 24%. He is running in 2014 will probably do at least as well, no matter who the Democrats choose as their sacrificial lamb. Kansas is so Republican that running for the Senate probably isn't even worth the trouble in order to get statewide exposure for a future run at some other statewide office, all six of which are currently occupied by Republicans. Nevertheless, occasionally a Democrat does get elected to statewide office in Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius (D) was elected governor in 2002 and reelected in 2006. However, Kansas has elected only three Democrats to the Senate in all of its history, most recently in FDR's landslide victory of 1932. Roberts is about as safe as a senator can be.

Kentucky

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mitch McConnell (R)	(D)	Being minority leader puts Mitch Mcconnell in a tough position. If he just digs in his heels and opposes everything President Obama proposes, it will only strengthen the popular view that Republicans are for nothing and against everything. If he tries to work out a compromise with the Democrats, he is likely to be primaried. Kentucky is a red state, but actually has a fair number of Democrats in high office, starting with Gov. Steve Beshear (D-KY), Lt. Gov. Jerry Abramson (D-KY), Attorney General Jack Conway, and Secretary of State Alison Lundergran Grimes. Hollywood actress Ashley Judd flirted with running but eventually decided not to. Much of the Democratic establishment would like to see Grimes go after McConnell. Although Grimes is only 34 and relatively inexperienced in politics, in 2010, she received 61% of the vote in the general election, a higher percentage than any other Democrat in a statewide contest.

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Susan Collins (R)	(D)	Susan Collins belongs to a vanishing breed that once roamed New England like the buffalo in South Dakota: a moderate Northeastern Republican. She is personally popular in the state, but moderates are always subject to tea party challenges, even when the tea party candidate knows that the challenge could cost the Republicans a Senate seat. But even without a primary fight, Collins is probably the Democrats' best pickup opportunity, albeit not a bright one. If Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME) decides to challenge Collins, Collins will have a serious fight on her hands. Pingree won her 2012 race by a 28% margin, but her problem will be getting enough votes in northern Maine (ME-02), where Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME) won by only 16%. Obama won both districts, by margins of 22% and 7%, respectively. The northern part of the state is more conservative than the southern part, and furthermore, Collins hails from the far north.

Mississippi

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Thad Cochran (R)	(D)	Six-term incumbent Thad Cochran will be a seven-term incumbent in Jan. 2015. The Democrats did find a challenger in 2008, Erik Fleming, but he got only 38% of the vote to Cochran's 62%. The 2014 results are likely to be similar.

Nebraska

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
(R)	(D)	Mike Johanns has served two terms as governor or Nebraska, 4 years as George W. Bush's Secretary of Agriculture, and now one term as a U.S. senator. He could easily have been reelected, but decided not to run. A scramble for candidates will now begin, but any Republican will be the heavy favorite in this very red state.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
James Inhofe (R)	(D)	James Inhofe has been active in Oklahoma politics since 1967, when he was first elected to the state House of Representatives. He is extremely conservative, even voting against a 2005 bill that prohibits the U.S. government from torturing people in its custody. He also has a 0% rating from the Human Rights Campaign. But the people of Oklahoma seem to like him: he has gotten 57% of the vote in each of his most recent three Senate elections and is likely to get about the same percentage in 2014.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tim Scott (R)	(D)	After former senator Jim DeMint's surprise resignation from the Senate to run the Heritage Foundation (and possibly prepare for a 2016 presidential run), Gov. Nikki Haley appointed Rep. Tim Scott to fill out DeMint's seat until a special election in Nov. 2014. Scott is black. If the Democrats nominate a white person, we could have the unusual situation of a black Republican against a white Democrat. This would put racist Republicans in a real pickle. Some of them might not vote or go for the white person. It could become a competitive seat if the Democrats can come up with a top-flight candidate, which won't be easy given how thin their bench is in South Carolina.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lindsey Graham (R)	(D)	Lindsey Graham is an outspoken conservative, but that may not be enough to save him from a primary against a tea party candidate. Conceivably, the former senator from South Carolina, Jim DeMint could even finance the tea party candidate, which would be quite a sight. However, even if Graham is defeated in a primary, the Democratic bench in South Carolina is so thin that any Republican who doesn't claim rape is God's will could probably win.

Tennessee

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lamar Alexander (R)	(D)	By Tennessee standards, Lamar Alexander is something of a moderate. Nevertheless, in 2008, he carried 94 of Tennessee's 95 counties, losing only in majority-black Haywood County in Western Tennessee. He racked up 67% of the vote in the process. It is hard to see the Democrats coming up with anyone who could knock him off.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Cornyn (R)	(D)	As the Latino population of Texas continues to grow rapidly, some day it may become a purple state, but that day won't be in 2014. Consequently, John Cornyn shouldn't have a lot of trouble being reelected. If San Antonio Mayor, Julian Castro, is the Democratic nominee, Cornyn will have to actually campaign hard and put some effort into his reelection campaign, but he'll probably still win.

Wyoming

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Michael Enzi (R)	(D)	Wyoming is one of the most Republican states in the country. Michael Enzi could probably be reelected even if he is caught in bed with both a live boy and a dead girl.

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