Obama 332
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Romney 206
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Senate
Dem 55
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GOP 45
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  • Strongly Dem (191)
  • Likely Dem (72)
  • Barely Dem (69)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (15)
  • Likely GOP (16)
  • Strongly GOP (175)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: (None)
Dem pickups:  
GOP pickups:  

News from the Votemaster

Scott Brown Makes Freudian Slip

Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown has filed to run for the Senate seat currently occupied by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). Only on the form, he was supposed to say which party's nomination he wants and he left that field blank. The Federal Election Commission sent him a polite letter gently inquiring which party he belongs to. He is going to have to admit it is the Republican Party, even though, by and large, New Hampshire is a blue state and Shaheen is quite popular.

It is not unprecedented for a person to serve as senator from more than one state. James Shields certainly holds the record though. He first represented Illinois in the Senate, even though he had not been a citizen for the nine years prior to his election. After losing reelection, he moved to Minnesota and was one of the state's first senators. Later he moved to Missouri and won election to the Senate there. None of this is going to help Brown though. He is going to be labeled a carpetbagger from today until the election and it will probably be enough to defeat him since residents of New Hampshire definitely have a clear identity of themselves and do not think of New Hampshire as North Massachusetts. At least three polls taken this year give Shaheen a double-digit lead over Brown.

But before Brown even gets to face Shaheen, he first has to win a very contested Republican primary where he will face former senator Bob Smith and tea party favorite Karen Testerman. He is certainly better known in the state than either of them, but they are going to be throwing bombs at him for 5 months, since the New Hampshire primary is Sept. 9. He is capable of raising lots of money, but he will have to spend much of it during the primary season in the expensive Boston media market. All in all, it should be exciting and fun to watch, but Shaheen is the clear favorite at this point.

Republican Poll Shows Landrieu Ahead in Louisiana

Normally, partisan polls should be taken with a bucket of salt and polls this early aren't always worth much in many cases, but a new Magellan Strategies poll is perhaps noteworthy. It shows Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) ahead of Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) 39% to 26%. What is special about this poll is that Magellan Strategies is a Republican shop, and partisan pollsters never release polls that make the other side look better than the really are. So it can be presumed that Landrieu is leading Cassidy by at least 13%, maybe more.

Louisiana has a jungle primary, with all candidates listed on the same ballot. If no candidate gets 50%, the top two candidates face each other in a runoff a few weeks later. Most likely they will be Landrieu and Cassidy, so a lot depends on how the voters who supported the minor candidates in the primary vote in the runoff. Sometimes these are protest votes and when push comes to shove, they will go with a known quantity. This is not to say that Landrieu is home free. By no means, but media reports that she is a dead woman walking are overblown. It will be a hotly contested race, but it is far from clear who will win in the end.

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---The Votemaster
Mar11 Version 1.0 of the 2016 Republican Presidential Primaries
Mar11 Tier 1 Candidates
Mar11 Tier 2 Candidates
Mar11 Tier 3 Candidates
Mar11 Hotly Contested Special Election in Florida Today to Fill GOP House Seat
Mar05 Cornyn Renominated in Texas
Mar03 Ohio Eliminates Early Voting on Sundays
Mar03 Travis Childers to Run for the Senate in Mississippi
Feb26 Primary Season Begins Next Week
Feb08 Lt. Gov. John Walsh Appointed to Replace Baucus in the Senate
Feb03 Christie and 2016
Feb03 Update on the Key 2014 Senate Races
Dec19 Obama Names Max Baucus as Ambassador to China
Dec19 Democrats Sweep Virginia Statewide Offices
Nov23 The Senate Did Not Really Abolish the Filibuster
Nov06 Virginia is for Democrats
Nov06 Christie Wins Big in New Jersey
Nov06 The Establishment Strikes Back
Nov06 De Blasio Crushes Lhota in New York City
Nov06 Many Referendums on the Ballot
Nov05 All Eyes on Virginia and New Jersey
Nov05 Business Fights Back: Key Republican Primary to Be Held in Alabama Today
Nov05 Liberals Poised for Big Wins in New York City
Nov05 Key Ballot Measures Will Also Get Attention
Nov05 Bass Will Not Challenge Shaheen in New Hampshire
Oct17 Cory Booker Elected Senator from New Jersey
Oct17 Government Crisis Postponed for 3 Months
Oct01 The Blame Game Begins
Oct01 Primaries May Hurt Republicans' Senate Hopes
Sep19 Natalie Tennant To Run for Senate in West Virginia
Aug20 Ted Cruz Releases His Birth Certificate
Aug20 Lamar Alexander May Get Primary Challenger
Aug14 Booker on Track to Become Senator from New Jersey
Aug07 Kentucky and National Politics Get Intertwined
Jul23 Michelle Nunn Pre-Announces Senate Candidacy
Jul23 Liz Cheney to Challenge Sen. Enzi in Wyoming
Jul14 Schweitzer Won't Run for Baucus' Senate Seat
Jul14 Prospective Senate Candidate Sarah Palin Has Never Talked to State Republican Chairman
Jun26 Markey Holds Massachusetts Senate Seat for the Democrats
Jun26 Supreme Court Guts the Voting Right Act
Jun26 Is Ted Cruz Eligible to Be President?
Jun19 McConnell Threatens to Go Nuclear All the Time If He Becomes Majority Leader
Jun04 Lautenberg Dies, Christie on the Spot
Jun04 Rep. Carolyn McCarthy Has Lung Cancer
Jun04 Lautenberg Dies, Christie on the Spot
Jun02 Hagan Gets First Serious Republican Challenger
May19 Virginia Republicans Nominate Ken Cuccinelli for Governor
May19 Karen Handel Joins the Fray in Georgia
May04 Republicans Can't Find Senate Candidate in Iowa
Apr24 Sen. Baucus to Retire