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Trump Greeted with Protests in England

King Charles III pulled out all the stops to shower Donald Trump with pageantry at Windsor Castle. His prime minister, Keir Starmer, no doubt asked the King to make Trump feel like a king-for-a-day. Lots of people on horses, lots of folks with furry hats, lots of red carpets, lots of gilded rooms, and especially lots of grandeur. Trump likes that. He might even snap a few photos of the castle's interior on his phone and then instruct the architects planning his new grand ballroom to make it look like the photos. A few times, Trump stepped out ahead of the King, which is one of those royal no-no's, but Charles was quick enough to make a gesture suggesting he wanted that, to avoid a ruckus, like the one in 2019 when Trump stepped in front of Queen Elizabeth. You can see from the photo how much Trump is enjoying his trip. He's probably thinking: "How can these guys see where they are going?"

King Charles and Donald Trump inspecting the troops

He might also have been thinking: "On the other hand, these hats make them look taller and they are probably much more comfortable than the lifts I wear in my shoes to gain an extra inch. I wonder if I could take one home as a souvenir."

It should be noted that Trump will be staying at Windsor Castle, which is not in London, but is in a smallish town of 30,000 people 25 miles west of Central London. It has no power and no real importance. It is just good for ceremonies at the castle, which is much more ornate than Buckingham Palace in London. Buckingham is actually kind of dreary inside and if Trump were brought there might feel it wasn't sufficiently royal for him. After all, the toilets are not made of gold. No one thinks the 1000-year-old Windsor Castle is dreary.

Nevertheless, while the King was doing his best to make Trump feel good, thousands of protesters in Central London were marching, some holding banners saying "No to racism, no to Trump":

Marchers in London

Some of the protesters were a little bit less friendly:

Another antiTrump protest

Tuesday evening, some people decided that the castle would make a good screen for an impromptu short video:



The local police apparently didn't like the show and arrested four people in conjunction with the images.

Nevertheless, unlike in some Western countries (see below), there is still unlimited free speech in the U.K. Yesterday evening, Channel 4 planned a 5-hour special with an unbroken catalog of hundreds of Trump's lies. The chief content officer of Channel 4, Ian Katz, said that he hoped Trump would watch some of it after the state dinner. (V)

Fed Cuts Rates

At its meeting yesterday, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 0.25%, the first cut this year. It did this in response to a weakening labor market and slower growth. The vote was unanimous except for Donald Trump's newest appointee, Stephen Miran, who voted for a 0.5% cut. Most economists were expecting this cut. However, cutting interest rates could set off another round of inflation. In August it was up to 2.9%, above the Fed's target of 2%. This cut will probably drive it above 3%. If you are a high school student, that is 50% more than the Fed wants (keep reading and this remark will become clearer later on).

In his statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the labor market is unusual now. There are fewer jobs but also fewer people looking for jobs on account of all the deportations going on. The Fed has never had to deal with this before. Nevertheless, Powell said that more cuts are likely before the end of the year. If that happens, it could stoke more inflation.

Donald Trump may be slightly mollified now and may stop trying to fire Powell, as least for the moment. On the other hand, if Powell keeps cutting rates and inflation surges, that could hurt the Republicans next year. What Trump should do—but won't do—is leave Powell alone to make the best judgment he can based strictly on economic data, not politics or Trump's wish for low interest rates because that helps his real estate businesses. (V)

Susan Monarez Speaks Truth to Power in Senate Hearing

The former CDC director, Susan Monarez lasted 2.6 Scaramuccis after being confirmed by the Senate, with every Republican voting for her. Yesterday, she gave the Senate HELP (Health, Education, Labor, Pensions) Committee an earful.

The senators wanted to know why the Secretary of HHS fired her after 29 days. She said it was because she insisted on making decisions based on science. He ordered her to rubber-stamp anything his hand-picked panel of anti-vaxx advisers recommended on vaccines. She refused and said she would go with the best science. Kennedy told her that he was speaking to Trump every day about vaccines. That was supposed to impress her. It didn't and she refused to budge. He was infuriated and fired her.

At the meeting that led to Monarez' firing, things got very heated. She testified that Kennedy was very, very upset and very animated. She said he called the CDC the most corrupt federal agency in the world and he said that it was killing children. Some senators thought the meeting was recorded and wanted to hear the recording but others said it was not recorded.

After Monarez was fired, three other top CDC officials resigned in protest. One of them, Debra Houry, also testified that she had pushed back on Kennedy about vaccines as well. She noted that children have died of measles in Texas this year and that happened on Kennedy's watch. She said that Kennedy should be fired.

The chairman of the HELP Committee is Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), a physician whose vote got Kennedy confirmed despite his own misgivings. During the hearing, he wondered aloud about whether the senators got it wrong when they confirmed Kennedy. Actually, he knows very well where the problem is. It was Cassidy's vote to confirm someone he knew perfectly well was completely incompetent. Cassidy did that to avoid having Donald Trump arrange a primary for him next year. In other words, he risked the nation's health to protect his own job. He claimed that Kennedy had given him private assurances that he would keep the CDC independent and not make it subservient to his personal views. Kennedy was straight up lying, of course, and Cassidy surely knew he was straight up lying, but used that as a fig leaf for a vote that he hoped he wouldn't have to regret so quickly.

In the end, Cassidy may go down anyway. He has already drawn several GOP primary challengers over his vote to convict Trump over the Jan. 6 riots. So he may end up getting the worst of all possible worlds: losing his job and going down in the history books as a coward who seriously damaged the nation's health.

In contrast to Cassidy, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the ranking Democrat on the committee, said that all Kennedy listens to are conspiracy theorists.

Meanwhile, out west, the four not-Alaska states bordering on the Pacific Ocean, together calling themselves the West Coast Health Alliance, came up with their own vaccine recommendations. These include every resident over 6 mos. getting the flu vaccine this fall and broad swaths of the population getting a COVID-19 shot. Also, that RSV vaccines be given to infants and seniors, among others. These recommendations follow scientific evidence, not something whispered in Robert Kennedy Jr.'s ear by some quack. Republicans generally are big fans of states' rights, but when there are dueling federal and state recommendations, it will be interesting to see them twist themselves into pretzels to be on the federal side. (V)

Charlie Kirk Had an Economic Message

Paul Krugman has taken a look at Charlie Kirk from a different angle than most: his economics. Did you expect otherwise? Krugman's Nobel Prize was in economics, not physics. Kirk's view of the ideal woman can be captured in one photo:

Woman in 1950s dress dusting a table

Gender roles have changed enormously in the past 40 years. In particular, the percentage of women who have had paid jobs in America has grown significantly since World War II, when Rosie the Riveter made her debut. That was due to necessity. But the real revolution was the kind of jobs women had. Back in the 1950s, women had "pink-collar jobs," like nurses and teachers. They didn't earn as much as men did and certainly had no power. They worked for what was called "pin money," a few luxuries for themselves. Starting around the 1980s or so, women began working in large numbers in fields that were previously almost exclusive to men, like banking, law, and politics. This was partly due to rising divorce rates. Women knew that they might someday have to earn a living on their own, so having a career and a good-paying job was important.

What Kirk was selling was the idea that this was all wrong and the past 40 years of history needed to be undone. Women should stay home, clean house (see photo above), and take care of the kids. They should NOT be bankers or lawyers or politicians. In particular, they should not be competing with men for these good jobs. Kirk never offered an actual plan for rolling back history, but many young men found it very appealing to imagine a world in which men were the unquestioned bosses and women instantly obeyed them. In this fantasy world, if a man behaved very badly in a marriage, his wife would have to suck it up and stick with him because she had no way of earning a living on her own. To some men, that sounds very inviting. Krugman believes that many young men listening to Kirk implicitly bought into his fantasy world where women were there to serve men, not compete with them economically. No wonder they worshiped him. (V)

Jimmy Kimmel "Suspended Indefinitely" for WrongThink

On Monday, late-night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel addressed the arrest of Tyler Robinson in his nightly monologue, remarking: "We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them, and doing everything they can to score political points from it." Notice that the comment is not really about Charlie Kirk at all, only about his alleged killer.

Still, MAGAworld is out for blood right now, and Kimmel is both a prominent media personality and an outspoken liberal. So, Donald Trump-appointed FCC Chair Brendan Carr did an interview with right-wing YouTuber Benny Johnson and hinted that the FCC might just have to consider suspending ABC's broadcast license. That threw the fear of God into both Disney (ABC's owner) and into many of ABC's broadcast partners. And so, in very short order yesterday, Kimmel was suspended from his eponymous show. The decision came down so fast that the monologue that would have aired last night was getting the finishing touches, and the celebrity guests were already in the studio, when Kimmel got the news.

Maybe, once the raw emotion of Kirk's death has subsided, Kimmel's suspension will be lifted. But maybe not. Stephen Colbert already lost his late-night job from some combination of "the profits aren't there anymore" and "we can't risk offending MAGAworld," and maybe the same combo will subsume Kimmel. MAGAworld has a long memory, after all, and Disney/ABC can't put the entire operation in jeopardy for the sake of one show. On top of that, Kimmel has been hinting at retirement for a few years, and may decide this is a good time to ride off into the sunset.

That said, Donald Trump & Co. might want to be careful what they wish for. Late-night ratings are down, while podcasts have never been more popular. And Kimmel and Colbert are both naturals for podcasting, perhaps even a joint podcast, one that might fill the niche about to be left vacant by Marc Maron. Such a move might give them access to a larger audience, while at the same time removing the constraints imposed by network TV. If there's going to be a Joe Rogan of the left, Kimmel and/or Colbert have as good a chance of pulling that off as anyone.

And Kimmel's (temporary?) demise was not the only example of WrongThink to end up in the Trump administration's crosshairs yesterday. In fact, the President did what he's been itching to do for years, and designated Antifa as a "MAJOR TERRORIST ORGANIZATION." We guess if you're going to be a terrorist organization anyhow, better to be a MAJOR one, rather than a minor one. After all, everyone knows girls don't date guys from minor terrorist organizations.

Note that there isn't any legal impact of being a MAJOR terrorist organization (or a minor one), and there also isn't any legal impact of being labeled a domestic terrorist organization. The law does allow for people who aid and abet FOREIGN terrorists organizations to be charged with a crime, but there's nothing about domestic terrorist organizations. In the end, this is just: (1) red meat for the base, (2) an example of Trump trying to squeeze the death of Charlie Kirk for all it's worth and (3) a reminder that the word "terrorist" is very subjective (especially with this administration), and often doesn't mean much more than "group I/we do not like." (Z)

What Is the Future of the GOP?

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future and even more especially about politics, where a week is a long time. Don't believe that? Think about how things were the day before Charlie Kirk was murdered and how it is a week later. Nevertheless, long-time pros Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen have made an attempt to predict the future of the Republican party. Here it is in brief:

Again, even though VandeHei and Allen have been insiders since forever, stuff changes and unexpected events can upset the applecart. A war, a recession, a huge 2026 upset, and other things could invalidate some or all of this in a flash. (V)

Where Are the DOGEys When You Really Need Them?

In the past 4 years, Congress has appropriated over $100 billion for weapons systems that the Pentagon did not ask for, does not need, and does not want. And no one knows why. How did this happen? No one really knows, but the most likely explanation is that fairly regularly, recalcitrant congresscritters tell the House leadership that they will not vote for some bill the leadership wants unless the bill provides for a large contract for some defense war contractor in the members' districts (or campaign donors). Then the provisions magically appeared in the middle of bills in the dark of night, possibly engineered by the MS Word fairy. If there were a textbook definition of government waste, it should be spending billions to give the Pentagon weapons it doesn't want and can't use. Odd that the DOGEys missed this $100 billion boondoggle, and yet the $5 billion for USAID stuck out like a sore thumb.

This year is no different. There are $52 billion for weapons "program increases" over the Pentagon's requests. Some of the proposed increases could be jettisoned when the sausage is actually made, because an increase that greatly benefits one House member (and marginally benefits two senators) may not make the cut. Gabe Murphy of Taxpayers for Common Sense said: "Some of these increases may be worthy investments, but without justification requirements, how are we to know? When lawmakers are allowed to anonymously direct funds to companies that contribute to their campaigns or that they hold stock in, abuse is inevitable." In reality, 75% of the 2026 proposals were not requested by the Pentagon at all. Actually, only about 3% of the increases are on the Pentagon's list of "unfunded priorities." So it seems that what members want and what the brass want are almost disjoint sets. The members want to make constituents and donors happy; the generals want weapons that work and they can use. These are different requirements.

The majority of programs that get increases are never debated in open committee hearings or on the floor. They just get inserted into tables in the appropriations bills. This is not only waste, but actually hurts readiness because once Congress decides on how much the military will get total, spending some of the money on members' pet projects means less money for whatever tanks, ships, or planes the Pentagon actually wants.

Members of both chambers even brag about the bacon they bring home, despite the Pentagon's lack of interest in it. For example, in a July press release, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) proudly announced the $283 million for Pratt & Whitney F135 jet engines made in North Berwick, ME. What she failed to note are: (1) the company contributed to her campaign and (2) the Pentagon has no need for the engines. Pratt & Whitney is not alone. Boeing will get $360 million for a dozen Apache helicopters the Army has said it doesn't want. These are anything but isolated examples. (V)

Act Blue Expands Its Mission

ActBlue started out as a clearinghouse so Democrats could donate easily to the candidates of their choice. It worked well and has been the biggest clearinghouse for Democrats for multiple decades. It works especially well for smaller campaigns that don't have the infrastructure big campaigns do.

Now ActBlue is expanding. It bought Impactive, a company that has tools for canvassing, phone banking, and other forms of voter outreach. The goal is to become one-stop-shopping for small-to-medium campaigns, like House campaigns and many state offices. This will give Democratic candidates for many lower offices tools that previously were available only to top-of-the-line campaigns.

ActBlue has become a sufficiently powerful player that Donald Trump is starting to go after it. He claims (with no evidence, as usual) that ActBlue is not doing enough to stop straw-man donations from foreign sources. Specifically, it is illegal for a foreign person, organization, or government to give money to an American citizen with the specific purpose that the American then donate the money to a political campaign, thus making it look like the donation is legal. There is no evidence that this is happening at more than a microscopic scale, if that much. It is like talking about noncitizen voting. There is almost none of it but Republicans make it sound like it is an epidemic.

Democrats are asking why Trump is not going after WinRed, the Republicans' donation clearing house. It is worth noting that ActBlue is a nonprofit and very efficient whereas WinRed is a commercial, profit-making company and more interested in its take from the donations than what the campaigns get. (V)

The First Billion-Dollar Senate Race

North Carolina loves breaking records. In 1984, it hosted the most expensive Senate race in history up to that point. Spending on the general election was $26 million (up from $2 million in 1980). That's chicken feed compared to the $124 million spent on the 2014 North Carolina Senate race. It is now estimated that the 2026 North Carolina Senate race, which will feature Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R), will cost north of $1 billion. That more than doubles the current record holder for Senate races, the 2024 Ohio Senate contest between Sherrod Brown and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH).

There will be saturation advertising on television, radio, and every possible Internet platform. One indication of the volume of money that will be floating around is that in the first 24 hours after his announcement, Cooper took in $3.4 million. A generation ago, that would have funded an entire Senate campaign from beginning to end.

Democrats know there is no path to a Senate majority without North Carolina. Republicans know this, too. North Carolina is a key swing state. It voted for Donald Trump in 2024 at the same time it was electing Democrats as governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and superintendent of public instruction. Republicans won five lower statewide offices. Democrats nationwide will be pouring money into Cooper's campaign because he is well known and popular in the state and has a real chance to win. This is not money thrown away, like trying to defeat the cowardly Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Republicans are well aware that Whatley has never run for public office before, so the need to drown the popular Cooper is essential for him. Hence the billion-dollar prediction.

Both candidates are well plugged into donor networks. Cooper was previously chairman of the Democratic Governors Association and before that the Democratic Attorneys General Association. He knows where money comes from. Whatley was chairman of the RNC and shook the money tree many times with great success. In fact, that is why the GOP establishment wanted him as the candidate: He is good at raising money. What they don't know is whether he is actually a decent candidate. In recent years, Republicans have thrown away winnable races by nominating people with a "candidate quality" problem. Very little is known about how Whatley will be received out on the trail. In contrast, Cooper has campaigned six times for statewide office and won them all. Republicans have little hope that he will blow it by saying something foolish. He is a very experienced candidate and knows his state very well. He is also very folksy and low-key and voters tend to like that. (V)

House Retirements Suggest A Democratic Win in 2026

There are many ways to try to read the tea leaves about control of the House. Broadly, the president's party usually loses House seats in the midterms, sometimes many House seats. Still, that is a very coarse measurement.

Another measurement is retirements. Members of the House are very tuned into how the wind is blowing. They all know that being in the House minority is horrible. They have no power at all. At least senators in the minority can filibuster, but House members don't even have that tool. As a consequence, when a member expects to be in the minority next time, that is often a signal to the member to get out, either by retiring from politics or running for some other office, usually the Senate or governor. So, comparing partisan retirements gives some feeling for how the members are feeling. The nice thing about retirements is that it is easy to go back and see how well this indicator has done in the past.

From our retirements page (see link to the left of the map), you can see that Senate retirements are split 5-5, but senators have long terms and can often buck a tide that House members cannot, so Senate retirements don't say much. House retirements are a better bellwether. Right now we have 16 Republicans and 12 Democrats saying they will retire. That is R-4. To get an idea of how that might play out, here is a historical scatterplot of net partisan retirements and net change in House seats going back to 1938.

Plot of retirements vs. House seats flipped

The slope of the regression line is clearly negative. The more Republicans who retire, the worse the Republicans do in the election. Of course, part of that is a self-fulfilling prophesy because the rate of incumbent reelection is over 90% and a Republican giving up a seat increases the chance that a Democrat could take it. With a net R-4 on retirements, the prediction is that the Democrats could pick up some 20 seats. Still, it is early in the season and there could yet be more retirements announced in the fall. (V)

Americans Are Stupid

Specifically, American high school kids are stupid. No. we don't mean 18-year-olds are voting against their own interests (although that comes next). We mean one-third of high school seniors are not capable of figuring out how much they save by buying an $80 shirt that is on sale with a 10% discount. Yeah, it's that bad. Fifth-grade math is not rocket science but it is a bridge too far for millions of kids.

The NAEP (National Assessment of Education Progress), the gold standard of measuring educational levels, has a new report card out for America's students and the kids get a "D." Matthew Soldner, acting commissioner for Educational Statistics said the results show a "stark decline" compared to past reports. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said the statistics confirm "a devastating trend." She also said: "It's an economic emergency that threatens our workforce and national competitiveness." Watch out for that sneaky word: "emergency." There is probably an old law stating that in an educational emergency, the president can take over all the nation's schools and rewrite the curriculum as he sees fit. The focus of the new one could be fighting woke and CRT; forget computing 10% discounts. That is not important.

The NAEP defines three achievement levels: basic, proficient, and advanced. One-third of seniors fail to make it to the basic level. This means that they can't make simple inferences after reading a piece of text. Math is especially bad, with 45% of high school seniors below basic (e.g., can't do the 10% discount calculation above). Figuring out how much gas they will need for a road trip is a no-can-do. Adjusting a recipe for four people to six people is way beyond what they can do.

In the 2025 Program for International Student Assessment tests (PISA) Singapore was on top, China was second, Japan and Taiwan were tied for third, followed by South Korea, and then Hong Kong. Canada was #8. The U.S. came in at #18, way behind all the Asian countries. How can the U.S. out-innovate other countries when American kids can't read or do simple math? How can they make intelligent political choices if they don't understand the issues?

Third grade is considered crucial by educational experts. That's when students transition from learning to read to reading to learn. Students who can't read by the end of third grade are in deep doodoo going forward. Yet in the 2024 report card, 40% of fourth graders were below basic.

This report is clearly a problem. It will be up to McMahon to do something about it, if she wants to. But her background is running World Wrestling Entertainment and she knows you don't have to be very smart to watch wrestling. This doesn't bode well for future workers.

Many colleges—even Harvard—have to spend a lot of effort on what is effectively remedial teaching because the incoming students really aren't ready for college work. But reading and math deficits also affect students aiming for vocational training. Pretty much all machines these days are full of computers and they come with thick manuals explaining how to use them and even thicker ones explaining how to repair them. How is a student who can barely read going to cope with a 500-page manual on how to repair a car? None of this bodes well for the American economy in the 21st century. (V)


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