The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the three independents as Democrats):

13 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2026 and 34 seats are not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats are up for (re)election in 2026 and 31 seats are not up, for a total of 53 seats

For the time being, we are assuming all incumbents will run for reelection unless they specifically state that they won't. The totals above include the special elections for the rest of the term for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) ending Jan. 3, 2029 and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), also ending on Jan. 3, 2029.

The map slightly favors the Republicans. because if no seats flip, the Republicans will hold their majority. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is clearly endangered. The only Republican potentially endangered is Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

The Democrats have a decent chance to beat Collins and former governor Roy Cooper has a good chance to win the open seat in North Carolina. That gets them to 51 seats. Former senator Sherrod Brown is running against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH). As a three-time winner, in a blue wave, Brown could his old job back. That gets the Democrats to 50 seats. The next one will be tough. Candidate states are Iowa (open seat), Florida (appointed senator), and Texas—if the Republicans nominate toxic candidate Ken Paxton. The others look very tough.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republicans following.

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Democratic-held seats

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Hickenlooper (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Colorado has ceased to be a swing state, so the two-term governor will soon become a two-term senator. There are plenty of Republicans in libertarian Colorado, but none with a track record of winning three statewide elections.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chris Coons (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Chris Coons had the pleasure of running against Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell in a 2010 special election to fill the Senate seat that was vacated by Joe Biden when he became Vice President. He has been around ever since and will continue to be until he decides to retire.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jon Ossoff (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	This will be the one of the most watched races in 2026. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) dodged a bullet here when Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) said he will not challenge Ossoff, presumably so he can concentrate on running for president in 2028. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) would be an, er, interesting candidate, but she opted not to run. Insurance Commissioner John King jumped in and then jumped out. Two Georgia representatives, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter are already in. Finally, Kemp's choice, Derek Dooley got in. Dooley was born and raised in Georgia, but went to the University of Virginia and then the University of Georgia Law School, where he got his J.D. But he found the law boring became a football coach in Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Texas again, and New York for years. That doesn't exactly make him a carpetbagger, but having spent most of his adult life coaching various football teams out of state doesn't exactly make him the right guy to represent Georgia either. But southerners love their football players/coaches a whole lot. Kelly Loeffler and Brad Raffensperger might yet jump in, but so far, no sign of interest.

Illinois

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Dick Durbin is minority whip, the second most powerful position in the Senate Democratic caucus. He is also 80 years old and has decided that five terms in the Senate is enough. This will start a feeding frenzy among Illinois Democrats. It doesn't matter which one wins the primary. Whoever it is will win the general election easily. The first one in was Lt. Gov. (D-IL) Julianna Stratton (D-IL). She has the full (financial) backing of billionaire Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL). The combination of her having already won statewide office and Pritzker's money will make her the favorite. Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL) is also in. Democratic Reps. Raja Krishamoorthi is expected to jump in as well. Krishnamoorthi has $19 million in his warchest, but Pritzker could triple or quadruple that with ease if needed to help Stratton. The filing deadline is in December, so there is plenty of time for new entrants. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is said to be mulling the race. He would certainly shake things up. There is an early primary (March 2026), so getting started fast is essential. No doubt some Republicans will file to run, but it is pointless.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ed Markey (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Masachusetts is a very blue state and Markey is a generic Democrat. He should be in like Flynn. However, he first have to win the Democratic primary now that Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) is challenging him. Moulton a 46-year-old veteran is challenging the 79 year-old Markey on the grounds that Markey is too old. Whoever wins the primary is almost certain of winning the general election.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Gary Peters won his first Senate term in 2014 when long-time senator Carl Levin retired. Peters is retiring and will not run for reelection in 2026. This means there will be an open seat election. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan but at the same time Elissa Slotkin was elected to the Senate. Starting in Jan. 2027, she will become the senior senator. That was fast. Gov Gretchen Whitmer has ruled out a run, no doubt because she is planning to run for president or vice president in 2028. Pete Buttigieg also ruled out a run, undoubtedly because he is also going to run for president or vice president in 2028. One person who not only has not ruled out the race but has ruled it in is state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. The rising Democratic star jumped in on April 2. People like to enter races at the start of the quarter so their first quarterly fundraising report has a full three months in it. Rep. Haley Stevens is also in. Michigan AG Dana Nessel is also a potential candidate. If Nessel jumps in, we may be treated to a race between a young, strongly pro-choice Catholic who went to Notre Dame vs. an older Jewish lesbian in a state dominated by working-class white men, and a nondenominational Christian (Stevens) who got married at 38 and divorced at 39. Something for everyone. One Republican who is in is Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Slotkin in 2024 Another potential Republican is Rep. John James (R-MI), who finally won an election after multiple tries. But he may not be eager to give up a House seat he had to fight hard for to run against an incumbent. Failed gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon might also give it a try.

Minnesota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Tina Smith was orginally appointed to the Senate. She never really wanted the job and has decided that she doesn't want to run for relection in 2026. This surprised everyone, so it will take time for the field to form. Nevertheless, it took less than an hour for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN) to jump in. Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) is not and will run for a third term as governor. Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN) is also in and there could be more. Flanagan is part Native American which will get the lefties excited, but Craig is gay, so that kind of cancels out Flanagan's automatic advantage with progressives. Former basketball player Royce White (R) is in, although he ran in 2024 and was trounced by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN). Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze (R) is also in, too. Expect more.

New Hampshire

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	New Hampshire is one of the four states with two female senators. The others are Minnesota, Nevada, and Washington. That may not be true for long since Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is retiring. The Democrats don't have an obvious widely known candidate. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is known in half the state, so he is probably the best candidate, and is indeed running. Former governor Chris Sununu would be a formiddable candidate, but he has said he is not running, possibly to prepare for a 2028 presidential race in the event the country has had enough of Trump and Trumpism by then. Absent Sununu, former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown has jumped in. Brown ran for the Senate in New Hampshire in 2014 and lost to Shaheen. However, Chris Sununu's brother, former senator John Sununu, is also in. The Sununus are well known and liked in New Hampshire. It is a toss up.

New Jersey

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Cory Booker (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	The Republicans have trouble finding decent candidates, so Cory Booker is probably safe. Self-funding millionaires sometime can win in swing states, but New Jersey isn't a swing state.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ben Ray Lujan (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	The Republicans ran a weatherman last time. We didn't know they had weatherpersons in New Mexico. We thought it was nearly always sunny and dry. Maybe they will find someone better this time. It won't matter in blue New Mexico.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeff Merkley (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Last time, the Republicans couldn't find a serious candidate to run against the popular Merkley. They probably won't again this time. Former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) was a possibility until she accepted the job of secretary of labor. Merkley is safe.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jack Reed (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Jack Reed is a low-profile guy who avoids the media and concentrates on service to his constituents. They apparently like that, since they elect him over and over. Expect more of the same. Maybe pigs will fly in Rhode Island. The latter is definitely a better bet.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Warner (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Multimillionaire Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia can stay in the Senate as long as he wants to. he shows no signs of getting bored with the job. If Glenn Youngkin were to run, Warner might have to sweat it, but Youngkin has his sights on the White House. After Abigail Spanberger won the governorship by 15 points, Virginia Republicans are despondent. Maybe some state senator who is bored will try, but Warner is safe. Virginia will be locked in as a blue state for years.

Republican-held seats

Alabama

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Alabamians sure love their football coaches. Sen. Tommy Tuberville could have stayed in the Senate until he died, but he is running for governor. This will begin a feeding frenzy on the Republican side. Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) is running as the "Trump conservative." AG Steve Marshall (R) is in, too. Some Democrat will win the primary but it is a pointless project for him or her.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Dan Sullivan (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Alaska politics are a bit strange but Dan Sullivan is probably safe. Maybe former Rep. Mary Peltola will run. After all, she has already won statewide. However she might decide to run for the open governor's seat instead. She is the only Democrat in Alaska who might be able to beat Sullivan. It's up to her now.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tom Cotton (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Democrats didn't even bother to put up a candidate last time against Cotton. That's how bad it is. Cotton will win with or without an opponent.

Florida

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ashley Moody (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	There will be a special election in Florida in Nov. 2026 to fill the seat of Marco Rubio from Jan. 3, 2027 until Jan. 3, 2029 DeSantis picked AG Ashley Moody, so she will run as an incumbent. So far, no challengers have emerged. On the Democratic side, Jennifer Jenkins, who has opposed the right-wing group Moms for Liberty, is in. So is attorney Joey Atkins and philanthropist Hector Mujica. If this is the best the Democrats can do, it is game over.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jim Risch (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Jim Risch has had an interesting history, running for lieutenant governor at a time when he was actually governor (as a result of a gubernatorial vacancy when then-governor Dirk Kempthorne resigned the governorship to become George W. Bush's secretary of the interior). In 2008, he ran for the Senate and won. In 2014 he ran again, and won in another landslide. Ditto 2020. Risch will be 83 in 2026 and might decide enough is enough, in which case there will be many Republicans in the primary. Maybe the Democrats can find a candidate, but it hardly matters.

Iowa

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This race will be one of the Democrats' second-tier targets. Sen. Joni Ernst's remark at a town hall: "Well, we are all going to die" remark has gotten her nicknamed "Joni Hearse," and her support for cutting Medicaid is a problem. She saw the handwriting on the wall and it said: "Joni, go back to castrating hogs on the family farm. The hogs don't care what you say." So she dropped out of the race. The very Trumpy Jim Carlin is running and the less Trumpy Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) joined soon, leading to a Paxton-Cornyn type situation a bit north of Texas. State Rep. J.D. Scholten (D), a minor league pitcher, announced a run and then dropped out. State Rep. Josh Turek (D), a paralympian who has won gold medals in basketball is in. It will be a real barnburner in a state with a lot of barns. For the Democrats, this could be a pick up opportunity.

Kansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Roger Marshall (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	In the past 100 years, Kansas has sent exactly one Democrat to the Senate. George McGill won a special election in 1930 and was reelected in 1932. That's it. Marshall is as safe as his colleagues from Idaho and Wyoming. It is possible that term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly might try, but there are many highly partisan states that will elect a governor from the "wrong" party, but rarely for the Senate.

Kentucky

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Everyone was expecting Mitch McConnell to ride off into the sunset as fast as a turtle can, and he did. It took about an hour for former Kentucky AG, Daniel Cameron (R) to jump in. Cameron is Black, but he did win statewide as AG. Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) is running too and so might state Auditor Allison Ball (R). There is also a garbage candidate in the race: Nate Morris, a multimillionaire who made his fortune in garbage. He owns a waste and recycling company and thinks his money can buy the nomination. He is super Trumpy. All of them hate McConnell and will vie to be the Trumpiest of them all. They will probably all release their best recipe for turtle soup. Many Democrats were hoping that Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) would jump in and make it a real race, but he has said he will not run. This almost certainly means he is running for president in 2028. Former CIA officer and veteran Joel Willett is running for the Democratic nomination. So is Amy McGrsth, who ran against McConnell in 2020. Kentucky House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson is also in. The primary is in May 2026.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Bill Cassidy (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Louisiana changed the election law so there are now partisan primaries instead of a jungle primary. State Treasurer John Fleming (R) will challenge Cassidy. So will half a dozen others. There aren't a lot of top Democrats left in Louisiana, Maybe Mitch Landrieu, who has served as lieutenant governor and mayor of New Orleans might run. It is hard to see any Democrat beating Cassidy though. If some exceedingly extreme Republican beats Cassidy in the primary, maybe in a gigant blue tsunami a Democrat could win, but very unlikely.

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Susan Collins (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Susan Collins belongs to a vanishing breed that once roamed New England like the buffalo in South Dakota: a somewhat moderate Northeastern Republican. She is personally popular in the state, but Democrats hate her with a white-hot passion because she talks like a moderate all the time but votes like a conservative Republican nearly always. This, along with North Carolina and Georgia, will be the most closely watched races. Democrats were hoping that Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) would jump in, even though she is 77, She has run for election eight times in Maine and won them all. Finally on Oct. 14 she threw her hat in the ring. Oysterman and veteran Graham Platner got tired of waiting for Godot and has jumped in. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has endorsed him. That gives you an idea of what Platner is like. Maine is not Vermont, but Platner could be a big hit among oystermen (and oysterwomen), lobstermen (and lobsterwomen), farmers, lumberjacks (and lumberjills) and other working-class voters. Dan Kleban, cofounder of a small craft brewery was in until Mills entered the race, then he dropped out. Jordan Wood, Katie Porter's former chief of staff is also running along with former USAID official David Costello.

Mississippi

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Mississippi has been dead for 30 years. There aren't any white Democrats in Mississippi anymore and there aren't enough Black people to beat Hyde-Smith. So she is safe.

Montana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Steve Daines (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Montana is very red in presidential elections, but was somewhat purple in state elections. But Jon Tester, an incumbent, lost his seat in 2024, so maybe no Democrat can win statewide in Montana anymore. Unlike Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tester says he doesn't want his old job back. It would a miracle for any Democrat to beat Daines.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Pete Ricketts (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	In 2024, Pete Ricketts won a special election to fill out the term of Ben Sasse. Now he is up for a full term. We can't think of any Democrat who could beat him. William Jennings Bryan might have a chance, but July 26, 2025 marked the 100th anniversary of Bryan's death. On the other hand, Ricketts, the son of a billionaire, isn't all that popular. He is polling at 38%. Dan Osborn, who ran in 2024, is running again. Without Trump on the ticket and against a weaker opponent, it could be competitive, especially if the economy is in poor shape on account of the tariffs.

North Carolina

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Michael Whatley (R)	Roy Cooper (D)	As more and more people from out of state move into the Research Triangle area, North Carolina is trending purple (Barack Obama won it in 2008) so this is going to be a competitive race. Especially so now that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has decided to retire. The primaries are next spring, but the race is already set. It is former governor Roy Cooper (D) vs. former RNC chairman Michael Whatley (R). Wiley Nickel (D), who was gerrymandered out of reelection by a midterm redistricting was running until the day after Cooper announced. Then he dropped out so Cooper probably won't have a primary to deal with. Cooper will pull in tens of millions of dollars from out of state Democrats. It is very unlikely any other Democrat will challenge that juggernaut. Since Whatley has Trump's endorsement, there probably won't be a Republican primary either. It will be Cooper vs. Whatley. The amount of money spent in the race will be hundreds of millions of dollars. It will probably be the most expensive Senate race in history.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jon Husted (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	When J.D. Vance resigned from the Senate to become vice president, that left a vacancy in the Senate. Gov. Mike DeWine appointed his lieutenant governor, Jon Husted to the Senate, even though Husted really wanted to succeed the term-limited governor in 2026. But he is a team player and took the Senate job as a consolation prize. He will have to run in a special election in 2026 and again in a regular election in 2026. The Democrats' strongest candidate is Sherrod Brown, and fortunately he jumped in. Since has already won a Senate election three times in Ohio, he will be a formiddable challenger to an appointed senator.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Markwayne Mullin (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Markwayne Mullin won a special election in 2022, In 2026, he will go for a full term. We can't imagine the Democrats, if there are any in Oklahoma, can find anyone who can stop him. Footnote: Mullin is an enrolled member of the Cherokee Nation, so Native Americans who are normally Democrats are likely to support him.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lindsey Graham (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Lindsey Graham acts like a man who is scared something bad about him is going to come out. He believes in nothing except his own survival. He acts Trumpy, but he doesn't mean it. He could be primaried and lose. However, he has $15 million in the bank, so challengers are forewarned. Nevertheless, Graham is going to be challenged from the right by Paul Dans, who thinks Graham isn't sufficiently Trumpish. Dans was one of the authors of Project 2025 and will campaign hard on it. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R-SC) jumped in and then jumped out. There really aren't any Democrats in South Carolina who could beat any Republican.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mike Rounds (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This is another hopeless state for the blue team. Former governor and current senator Rounds can stay in the Senate until the Buffaloes come home.

Tennessee

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Bill Hagerty (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This is yet another one-party state. Usually the Democrats can find someone willing to waste a year campaigning, but it is completely pointless.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Cornyn (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Texas is a state that always disappoints Democrats. They find a great candidate, he raises boatloads of money, he runs a great campaign. And then he comes up short. Over and over. If the Democrats couldn't even beat Ted Cruz, who is widely despised, they have no chance against John Cornyn, who is reasonably popular. The one possible bright light for the Democrats is a unexpected run of AG Ken Paxton against Cornyn in the Republican primary. If Paxton wins that and the Democrats can find a really good candidate (maybe), they have a small chance if 2026 is a blue wave year. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is also running and could get the votes of the Black Republicans—if there are any in Texas. For those Democrats who believe in prayer, this is a good time to pray that Paxton wins the Republican primary. For those who don't, sending a couple of dollars Paxton's way might be Plan B. Nothing like a bit of good ole' rat reproduction. Three Democrats have filed to run: Colin Allred, James Talarico, and Terry Virts. Allred ran against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2024 and lost, but he is better known than Virts and is probably the stronger candidate. Talarico is state Rep. and not widely known either.

West Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Shelley Moore-Capito (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This is a very red state and the Democrats don't have any potential candidates. You can't beat someone with no one. Shelley Moore Capito is safe unless Joe Manchin changes his mind and runs against her as an independent, but that seems unlikely.

Wyoming

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Cynthia Lummis (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Wyoming is one of the most Republican states in the country. Cynthia Lummis is definitely not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she has that little magic (R) after her name. That's all that matters.