Today's the Day: House Races

Today, voters in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota will head to the polls to vote in those states' primaries. Yesterday, we previewed the races for governor, U.S. Senate and Mayor of Los Angeles. Today, we'll take a look at the many House races that are of interest:

CA-03: Cook has not released PVIs for the new map adopted after California passed Proposition 50, but this seat definitely went from "leans Republican" to "safe Democratic." In the game of musical chairs that resulted, Rep. Kevin Kiley (I, formerly R) fled the district, while Rep. Ami Bera (D) relocated to it. Bera faces two serious challengers—Army veteran Chris Bennett and Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall—who are both running to the Representative's left.

CA-04: Another safe blue district; this one is a potential "throw the bums out" situation. Rep. Mike Thompson (D) is seeking a 15th term, and will face one of the most serious challengers of his career in the person of the younger, leftier and better-funded former venture capitalist Eric Jones.

CA-06: This is the district that Bera left and Kiley relocated to. Keeping in mind that California has a top-two system, the biggest question is whether the now "independent" Kiley will survive to the runoff, and will retain some hope of continuing his career. Note that he still caucuses with the Republicans, so it's not clear how many Democrats will be persuaded he's a viable option for them in this, yet another safe Democratic district.

CA-07: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) is 81, is seeking an 11th term, and is known for bringing home the pork. Mai Vang is 40, and is running to Matsui's left on a platform of "we need new ideas." They will likely both advance, but it will be interesting to see how much of the vote each candidate claims.

CA-11: This is the very blue district that Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is retiring from. The primary has become a standoff between three (or maybe four) lefty contenders, only two of whom will be left standing by this time tomorrow: state Sen. Scott Wiener (D), wealthy entrepreneur Saikat Chakrabarti (D), San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan (D) and (maybe) moderate former Republican Marie Hurabiell (D). Weiner has the best polling, Chakrabarti has the most money and Chan has Pelosi's endorsement.

We wrote a pretty detailed analysis of this race, using the insight we have, which is that we know generally how American politics works. You might want to click back and do a quick review, for comparison's sake, to this analysis, which is written from the vantage point of someone who actually knows the district. It's from reader L.O.-R. in San Francisco, CA:

As someone who used to be in the thick of San Francisco politics and still follows things pretty closely, but no longer as an insider, I wanted to add just a little bit more to your description of the CA-11 congressional race to replace Speaker Emerita Pelosi.

First, San Francisco has two "parties": the progressive Democrats and the moderate Democrats. The issues separating the two are not at all the same as those separating liberals/progressives and conservatives nationally. Everyone is pretty much in the same ideological place around civil rights, defending democracy, and immigration. Differences are around criminal justice, working with business (or not), and tax policy. The issue screwing up a nice separation between the two camps is housing policy, which is the hottest topic in town: There is no agreement among progressives or among moderates around making it easier to build housing vs. protecting current neighborhood character.

In local parlance, Scott Wiener is firmly ensconced in the moderate camp—he is not a progressive. Connie Chan is firmly progressive. Saikat Chakrabarti has positioned himself to the left of the progressives and, if he gets into the runoff (even if he doesn't win the seat), he will be positioned as the new leader of the progressives. That said, he doesn't really differ much from Chan ideologically.

Weiner won his state Senate seat by consolidating the moderate vote (at a time when progressives were in the ascendancy) and the adding some progressives, especially gay progressives (there was some identity politics at play and also a lot of excellent retail politics, which he is great at). Holding that coalition will be harder for him to accomplish in a runoff because he has led pro-housing efforts in Sacramento and many moderates will hold that against him—and the progressive base will not cross the aisle to support him. Chan, on the other hand, has signaled modest support for the anti-housing crowd (and opposed the new Sunset Dunes park in the Sunset District, which is a very hot issue for many moderates in that neighborhood) and could peel some of Wiener's base from him on that basis.

Also, identity politics has waned dramatically in San Francisco in the past couple of decades (my comments about Wiener gaining progressive gay votes notwithstanding... that was a decade ago). Wiener earned a huge lead over Chan among Chinese voters in the best poll released showing that breakdown, probably because the majority of Chinese voters are in the moderate camp and also because of his outstanding retail politics, including in the Chinese community. Chan has surely increased her share of the Chinese vote over the past several weeks, but I'd expect the two of them to split the Chinese vote in the end.

All this leads to the question of: Why did Pelosi endorse? Her endorsement is meaningful, but won't sway too many voters; San Franciscans routinely ignore popular endorsers. (I live in Supervisorial District 5 and in the last election we narrowly voted out the Chakrabarti-style progressive incumbent, who enjoyed Pelosi's surprise endorsement in favor of a moderate.) But Chakrabarti and Chan were running neck-to-neck, and tipping even a few votes to Chan would likely make the difference in the race to be #2. I fully believe Pelosi endorsed because she wanted to end any chance for Chakrabarti to move forward and become the progressive standard-bearer, due to bad blood he engendered in D.C. when he was working on the staff of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Pelosi's sending Chakrabarti a big raspberry!

In sum: Wiener will lose a portion of his moderate base over housing issues, making an almost-certain election uncertain (but still likely). Chan has to earn every Chinese vote she gets because identity politics is dissipating here and Wiener has built a strong base of support in the community. Pelosi chose to endorse to exact revenge on someone nobody in D.C. liked.

Thanks, L.O.-R.!

CA-22: This is one of the Golden State districts that will actually be competitive; gerrymandering does have its limits, after all. The incumbent is David Valadao (R), who is a moderate, and is the last House Republican still standing who voted to impeach Donald Trump. He'll likely advance to the general, where he will either face off against state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains (D), who is a moderate, or Visalia School Board member Randy Villegas (D), who is a progressive.

CA-48: This is another competitive district, one that moved from "Solid Republican" to "Leans Democratic." Rep. Darrell Issa (R) decided he didn't like his chances, and announced his retirement. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R), who had been running in CA-49, promptly jumped over to this district, and will probably advance. He will face off against San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert (D) or former Obama administration official Ammar Campa-Najjar (D), with Campa-Najjar the leftier of the two.

IA-02: And now, let us yield the microphone to reader M.D.H. in Coralville, IA:

I'm in Iowa, where the 2026 election looks far more interesting than I would have expected a year ago.

You probably know how badly farmers here are being hammered by Donald Trump's blunders. They can't find enough workers due to his immigration policies, they are losing sales to his trade war, and now they face huge price increases for fertilizer and diesel fuel due to the Iran War. Most Iowa farmers will probably still vote GOP in November IF they show up, but some might stay home.

But do you know that many Iowans are being asked not to water their lawns right now because their water utilities have limited nitrate-filtering capacity and are struggling to keep nitrates below the legal limit? And that the science shows the legal limit should be even lower because nitrates in water are likely the main reason Iowa's cancer rates exceed the U.S. national average?

I have seen almost nothing about Iowa's nitrate problem in the national media, but it could be THE big sleeper issue for 2026 here. The response of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) to calls for tougher rules about nitrate runoff from farms has basically been, "Ask the farmers nicely to clean up their act." MAGA/MAHA Moms especially are likely to feel torn between "DEMS are evil Socialists" and "protect my kids."

The nitrate issue, on top of the economic mess, might torpedo the GOP here. The Economist's model estimates Trump's net approval in Iowa is currently negative 20 points, only slightly better than their current national estimate of negative 24 points. However, their model uses standard demographic factors to generate state-level estimates from national polling, so it probably doesn't capture the Iowa Nitrate Effect.

A poll dropped last week putting farmer Zach Lahn (R) ahead of Rep. Randy Feenstra (R), who has been seen as the GOP frontrunner in the race for Governor. I'm not sure whether I believe this poll: I pay fairly close attention to Iowa politics, and had you asked me "who is Zach Lahn?" before last week, I would not have known the answer. But I think either Lahn or Feenstra would have a tough race against Rob Sand, whose anti-corruption message, combined with the national and local trends mentioned above, should be pretty powerful. Sand has been our only statewide elected Democrat for a while, and he has used his role as Auditor to call out serious corruption.

Pundits and the various betting sites still think the GOP has better-than-even odds of holding the U.S. Senate seat, despite Sen. Joni Ernst (R) having melted down; my gut feeling is either state Rep. Josh Turek (D) or state Sen. Zach Wahls (D) would have a pretty good chance against either former state Sen. Jim Carlin (R) or Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), but since Ann Selzer quit polling Iowan voters after blowing it in 2024, we mostly have relatively unknown pollsters operating here now.

Three of the four Republican House incumbents are in serious danger, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R), who represents my district and just barely won last time around.

If you want to learn more about local politics here in Iowa, see here and here.

Thanks, M.D.H.!

There is no question that, as M.D.H. points out, three of Iowa's four House districts will be in play in November: the R+4 IA-01, represented by Miller-Meeks, the R+4 IA-02, represented by Hinson, and the R+2 IA-03, represented by Rep. Zach Nunn (R). However, the IA-01 race has attracted only one serious Republican (Miller-Meeks) and one serious Democrat (former state Rep. Christina Bohannan), so we're not going to learn anything today. And the IA-03 race has only attracted one Republican of any sort (Nunn) and one Democrat of any sort (state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott), so we're not going to learn anything there today, either.

That leaves IA-02, which is open due to Hinson running for the U.S. Senate. On the Republican side, it's state Sen. Charlie McClintock against former state Rep. Joe Mitchell. Both are outspokenly MAGA, but Mitchell is the one who has Trump's endorsement, so he's the heavy favorite to advance. On the Democratic side, there are four candidates, two of them serious: state Rep. Lindsay James and nonprofit founder Clint Twedt-Ball. James is more moderate, is the establishment candidate, and is favored to advance. She also has the endorsement of Capt. Janeway from Star Trek: Voyager, which should really resolve any doubts about her candidacy. Weird though, because it's actually Capt. Kirk who is from Iowa. Janeway is a Hoosier, by virtue of having been born in Bloomington on May 20, 2336.

MT-01: We got a little help with this one from reader J.S.C. in Missoula, MT. This R+5 district is open due to the retirement of Rep. Ryan Zinke (R). The Republican side of the contest has three serious candidates, all of them Trumpy: veteran and radio host Aaron Flint, Secretary of State of Montana Christi Jacobsen and former state Sen. and perennial candidate Albert Olszewski. Flint has Trump's endorsement, and so will likely be the one who advances. Flint and Zinke engaged in a conspiracy similar to what happened in the Senate race, with Zinke dropping out and Flint filing just before the deadline, so that could be a problem in the general.

On the Democratic side, there are four contenders. Author and businessman Ryan Busse has name recognition by virtue of having run for governor in 2024, and is the establishment candidate. Smokejumper Sam Forstag is something of a Graham Platner clone, a young, blue-collar guy running as a left-wing populist. Educator Russell Cleveland is running on a platform of healthcare reform and good governance. Rancher Matt Rains is a West Point graduate and Army veteran who is running as a Blue Dog, and who says he's the only "real" Montanan in the race because his family has been in the state since the Civil War. There's been one poll of the race, and it was released at the start of April, so take it with a few grains of salt, but it says Busse will advance easily.

NJ-02: This R+5 district is going to be a top Democratic target. That said, the blue team has been trying to send Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) into retirement for several cycles now, and hasn't succeeded thus far. There are two serious candidates on the Democratic side; Mayor Zack Mullock (Cape May) is the only one with experience in elective office and is hewing toward the center; former USAID official Bayly Winder is more lefty and is running on a "Donald Trump is corrupt and I oughta know" platform.

NJ-03: At D+5, this is technically a swing district. However, in a likely blue-wave year, with incumbent Rep. Herb Conaway (D) running, and with the three not-too-serious Republicans—contractor and perennial candidate Justin Barbera, salesman and perennial candidate Jason Cullen, and former Marine Michael McGuire—it's clearly "Safe Democratic."

NJ-05: Another swing district, at D+2. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) was ready to jump ship for the governorship, but when he lost that contest, he filed for reelection. He is unchallenged, and will face corporate consultant Sean Kirrane (R), who is also unchallenged.

NJ-06: At D+5. technically swingy. However, Rep. Frank Pallone (D) will crush two unknowns today, and then will face off against civil servant Hillary Herzig (R) in November, who he will also crush.

NJ-07: This EVEN district might be the Democrats' #1 target in the whole country. That is not only because of its PVI, but because incumbent Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R) has done an even better job of vanishing into thin air than D.B. Cooper. For that matter... has anyone ever actually seen Kean and Cooper in the same room? Hmmmm... To the (likely) regret of the GOP, nobody filed to run against Kean, so they're stuck with him in the general. If he drops out, a replacement will be chosen by the state's GOP county committee leaders.

As to the Democrat who will win the right to challenge Kean, we'll let J.N. in Summit, NJ, lay it out:

Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, health care consultant, and mother of young children is the favorite, having raised the most money by a fair margin. She is leading by double digits in polls. One of the candidates, Dr. Tina Shah, an ICU doctor, has decided to torch her reputation by going all-in on misleading and false attacks on Bennett. A Republican super PAC or two have gone all-in on false attacks on Bennett as well. If the Republicans are ratfu**ing in this way then it is pretty clear they don't want to see Bennett in the general election.

There are two other candidates in the race, Michael Roth, the former interim Small Business Administration head in the Biden administration (for a short period) and CEO of a small company, and Brian Varela, a businessman. I would be surprised if Bennett loses, but in the recent NJ-11 special election primary, a negative campaign by AIPAC managed to derail Tom Malinowski, former NJ-7 congressman, who was narrowly beaten by now-Rep. Analilia Mejia. She is much less Israel-friendly than Malinowski would have been—too bad for AIPAC.

Thanks, J.N.!

NJ-09: At D+2, technically swingy, so we feel duty-bound to mention it. But Rep. Nellie Pou (R) is running for reelection, and has drawn weak competition—her opponent will be Clifton City Councilor Rosie Pino or attorney Tiffany Burress. The latter is trying to get mileage out of the fact that she's married to former New York Giant and New York Jet Plaxico Burress; a player whose main claim to fame is that he once accidentally shot himself in a nightclub.

NJ-11: This D+5 district is the one referred to by J.N.; it was left open when Gov. Mike Sherrill (D) vacated it, with Analilia Mejia winning the special election to finish off the term. Now, Mejia is running for a term in her own right, and is facing Chatham Borough councilmember Justin Strickland, engineer Joseph Lewis, and former Morristown mayor and perennial candidate Donald Cresitello. Mejia has been in office for about 6 weeks; hard to imagine that's enough time for buyer's remorse to take hold, but we suppose you never know. There's only one Republican running, Randolph Township Council member Joe Hathaway, who was already defeated by Mejia in the special election.

NJ-12: This one is D+13, and is not going to be competitive in November. However, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (R) announced her retirement, and Democrats came out of the woodwork for the chance to replace her. We're going to yield the stage one last time, to S.D. in Somerset, NJ:

I suppose you could call this Hillary vs. Bernie, Part 322, but in this case both sides are split. The district extends across four counties, and the Democratic organizations (i.e., the establishment) in each county are supporting their local "favored sons/daughters." On the progressive side, you have the Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and AOC-endorsed Adam Hamawy (the Army surgeon who saved Sen. Duckworth's life), and Sue Altman, who narrowly lost to representative-in-hiding Tom Kean Jr. in a neighboring district the last time around.

Electoral-Vote.com readers may be interested that Princeton Gerrymandering Project founder Sam Wang is also in the race, along with a handful of lesser-known candidates. According to the most recent poll (from nearly a month ago), Hamawy has the edge, although he sponsored the poll himself. We also have a shadowy PAC in the mix, which has been flooding my mailbox with anti-Altman mailers. This is a very blue district, so the winner is all-but-certain to win in November. All in all, this might be the district most in need of ranked-choice voting this cycle.

Thanks, S.D.!

New Mexico: If you squint really hard, then all three New Mexico House districts could potentially be in play—the D+7 NM-01, the EVEN NM-02, and the D+3 NM-03. However, there won't be anything of interest today, since there is exactly one contender on each side of each contest (to wit, Rep. Melanie Stansbury, D, vs. pharmacist Didi Okpareke, R, in NM-01; Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D, vs. retired policeman and perennial candidate Greg Cunningham, R, in NM-02; and Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández, D, vs. state Rep. Martin Zamora, R, in NM-03).

And, let's be honest. With three Democratic incumbents running in three non-red districts in a likely wave year, there probably won't be anything of interest in November, either.

SD-AL: And finally, bringing up the rear is South Dakota's at-large district, which is open due to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R) deciding to run for governor. It's another case of MAGA Republicans fighting tooth-and-nail for Trump's endorsement; small business owner James Bialota Jr. got it, state AG Marty Jackley did not. Jackley has a 5-to-1 cash advantage, so... that might be survivable. Whichever Republican advances will crush former USDA official Nikki Gronli (D) in the general, as the district is R+15.

And there you have it. Let the games begin! (Z)

His War Keeps Marching On...

Glory, glory, hallelujah?

As we have noted, we don't think there is generally much use in passing along news about the Iran War negotiations, since it's mostly just posturing and PR right now. That said, there were developments yesterday, developments in the wrong direction, that we think we should probably mention. We're going to keep it brief, though.

To start, there is some renewed fighting, though it's mostly in Lebanon, between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel. Negotiations may or may not be taking place; yesterday, Donald Trump said the negotiations were over, and that he did not care that was the case, and then he also said negotiations were ongoing, and were progressing at a rapid pace.

What is unquestionably true is that Iran's hand is very strong. That nation still has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, and thus over much of the world's oil economy. On top of that, news broke yesterday that the Iranians have done far more damage to U.S. military bases in the region than the White House previously admitted. Consistent with that, perhaps, the regime in Iran expended much oxygen yesterday threatening to open "new fronts" in the war.

Meanwhile, it appears to be the case that the deal hammered out by U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner is dead. There are two fundamental problems, both of them speaking to the weak position in which Trump finds himself. The first is that he is highly sensitive to signing off on any deal that is clearly worse than what the U.S. had under Barack Obama. Not only is that embarrassing to him, because Trump hates Obama, but it would also make the war hawks in the GOP furious.

So, after Witkoff and Kushner managed to secure an agreement that was only moderately worse than the one from the Obama years, Trump started trying to change the terms. He wanted a (very dubious) Iranian promise to stop enriching uranium for 5 years to be extended to 20 years. And he wanted the other nations of the Middle East to sign off on the Abraham Accords and to formally recognize Israel. Iran is not going to grant the former concession, and it hasn't got the power to grant the latter.

The second fundamental problem is that Iran wants something that Trump cannot deliver. As far as the Iranians are concerned, this is a war with two fronts, one in Iran and one in Lebanon. So, they insist that a peace agreement involve both fronts. Israel isn't particularly interested in playing ball here, especially since PM Benjamin Netanyhu knows full well that the overall peace deal, as negotiated by Witkoff and Kushner, absolutely throws his nation under the bus.

We have no idea what comes next. But we do know that these are not going to be easy problems to resolve. And we also know that every time Trump tries to renegotiate on the fly, Iran becomes less willing to trust him and his envoys, and less willing to take negotiations seriously. We wonder who gets to try next. J.D. Vance? Secretary of State Marco Rubio? Ivanka Trump? Kid Rock? Your guess is as good as ours. (Z)

Tina Peters Released from Prison

A couple of weeks ago, Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO) decided to grant clemency to former County Clerk of Mesa County, CO Tina Peters, who was given a 9-year sentence for conspiring to overturn the 2020 election results in her state. She was released yesterday; having served 4½ years (i.e., half of her original sentence).

We've gotten a bunch of questions from readers about why Polis would do such a thing. Let us start by pointing out that, unlike Donald Trump, the Governor clearly was not granting the pardon for its political benefit. There's no indication he has his eye on some other office when he's done being governor, and even if he does, his base was furious about the decision. Colorado Democrats even went so far as to formally censure Polis.

So, unless you believe that Polis was on the take—and there's been no suggestion or evidence that is the case—then he did it because he believed it was the right thing to do. This is a very reasonable conclusion for him to reach. For the court to give 9 years to a first-time, white-collar offender was definitely on the harsh side of the scale. And Peters is 70, such that another 4½ years is a rather greater price for her than for, say, someone in their 30s. Polis already has a demonstrated history of using pardons and clemency liberally, and in particular giving special consideration to senior-citizen prisoners. By all indications, what most readers of this site, and most Americans, want is for executives to keep politics out of the pardon process. That is something Trump clearly does not do, but that Polis evidently does do.

That said, the Governor may be wishing now that he had this one back, because Peters clearly learned nothing from her ordeal. Very nearly her first stop upon release yesterday was Steve Bannon's idiotic, and arguably insurrectionist, podcast. And as soon as she once again had the spotlight, Peters resumed prattling on about how Democrats always cheat in elections, and how they are definitely going to steal the 2024 midterms. As per usual, she somehow forgot to bring any evidence whatsoever in support of her claims.

Oh, well, what's done is done. We imagine that Peters will do the rounds of right-wing media, and will be quite the celebrity for some period of time. And then, she will fade into obscurity, which is a fate she richly deserves. (Z)

Political Bytes: Escape to Alcatraz

Sorry, we just didn't have time and space for this feature last week.

The Birdman of Washington: Donald Trump is still beating the drum for Alcatraz to be re-activated as a federal prison, and has requested $152 million to make that happen. It is true that its location, on an island, makes that prison somewhat difficult to escape. However, it is also true that its location, on an island, makes that prison somewhat difficult to staff and provision. Plus, the salty sea air wreaks havoc on everything, such that structures on Alcatraz require much more maintenance than would be normal. Oh, and it's also one of the most popular tourist retreats in the country.

Our Take: What are the odds that this all stems from a showing of the movie The Rock on one of the cable stations available at Mar-a-Lago? 70%? 80%? 90%?

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Bigotry, Thy Name is Nancy: Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) has introduced a bill that would amend the Constitution such that the "natural born" requirement for presidents and vice presidents would be extended to all federal officeholders, including executive branch appointees, members of Congress and judges.

Our Take: A little political theater in service of Mace's bid to be governor of South Carolina. Obviously, this has not the slightest chance of being adopted. If it did, it would not only be extreme and reprehensible xenophobia, it would also deprive the government of an enormous amount of talent.

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Bowing Out: After at least a month of insisting she was not retiring, Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL) has announced her retirement. She is 83, has not been in Washington for well over a month, and was looking at a serious primary challenge.

Our Take: Your turn, Tom Kean Jr.

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Even the Golden Knights Didn't Help: Canadians are furious about Donald Trump's tariffs, not to mention his vague threats about making Canada into the 51st state. And so, they have collectively reduced their travel to the United States. There may be no destination that's been hit harder than Las Vegas. That city is noticeably less bustling now than at any time since the pandemic faded, and the drop in international tourism is the clear culprit. For this year's midterms, the Democrats are planning to point this out to Nevada voters, early and often. There's no Senate race this year, but the governor's mansion is up, and so too are all of the state's House seats, of course. What makes Nevada somewhat unusual, on the House elections front, is that all four seats are arguably swingy (at least, in a wave election), with PVIs of D+1, D+2 (x2) and R+7.

Our Take: It would be political malpractice if the Democrats did NOT make this argument, though we imagine that most Nevadans in the tourism industry don't need much help connecting the dots. Meanwhile, leave it to those sneaky Canadians to damage the American economy by staging a reverse invasion. You gotta tip your toque to that kind of strategic vision.

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Black Belt in Brown Nosing: The New York Times staff carefully analyzed 12 hours of footage, recorded over 10 different Trump v2.0 Cabinet meetings. They found that 1 sentence in 6 uttered by the secretaries (i.e., nearly 17% of all verbiage) was meant to flatter Trump, either by praising the president, his abilities and his accomplishments, or by demeaning his enemies. The most frequent brown noser is Marco Rubio. In completely unrelated news, Rubio is clearly Trump's current preference for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

Our Take: Only 17%? That should quickly climb above 20% once J.D. Vance ups his game.

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He's Got Big, Orange Balls: We speak of New York City Zohran Mamdani, of course. Were you thinking of someone else?

Even those of us who can't afford the $5,000+ per seat tickets know that the New York Knicks are in the NBA finals for the first time in 27 years, as they attempt to win their first title in more than 50 years. And yesterday, in honor of the occasion, Mamdani signed an executive order temporarily repealing kids' bedtimes across the city, so that they can stay up and watch the Knicks play.

Our Take: Nice touch. As we have pointed out many times, the mayoralty of New York City has been a terminal position for well over a century. The last person to have the job, and then get elected to some other office, was Ardolph L. Kline, whose term as (acting) mayor ended in 1913. We think there's an excellent chance that the young and savvy Mamdani breaks that streak. Can you imagine "Madame Vice President, the Chair recognizes the senior senator from New York, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the junior senator from New York, Zohran Mamdani?"

Good afternoon, good evening and good night. (Z)

Never Forget: Helicopter Uncle

Today's post is on the long side, so we've got a reminiscence today that is on the briefer side, courtesy of R.H. in San Antonio, TX:

Mom's brother, Charles A. Hagan, grew up as the penultimate child and only boy in a family of which eight kids survived infancy.

His lottery number was such that it was certain that he would be drafted, so he "volunteered" to fly helicopters in Vietnam, where he was Aircraft Commander of the Command and Control Helicopter for the 3rd Brigade Commander before flying with the 101st Airborne.

Sometime after he returned, I asked him what he did to earn his Distinguished Flying Cross. His answer? "Something stupid." I never asked again, and I still don't know exactly which of his escapades earned the DFC, but he did land his warbird (not a medevac chopper) under fire to evacuate wounded, so perhaps that's what got the medal?

He took advantage of the GI Bill to get his college degree and then his Juris Doctorate; he married a law school classmate and they practiced in a small county near where we grew up in Coal Country.

He passed away in 2023. QEPD, Uncle Tony.

Thanks, R.H.!

If anyone wants to share their story, or that of a family member, acquaintance, etc., please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com, preferably with subject line "Never Forget." (Z)

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