The Todd Blanche Saga Isn't Over Yet

Acting AG Todd Blanche, who very much wants to drop the "Acting" from his title, got two pieces of good news yesterday. The first is that the Senate Judiciary Committee will vote this morning to advance his nomination to the whole Senate. The second is that Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) officially confirmed they are now "yea" votes. Taken together, these developments mean that Blanche is positioned for final approval within the next week. The earliest the vote can take place is Saturday, but a vote on Monday is more likely, for obvious reasons.

That said, reporters have been counting noses, and it turns out Blanche isn't quite home free yet. There are at least five Republican senators who have not committed to voting for Blanche. They are:

• Bill Cassidy (LA)
• Susan Collins (ME)
• John Curtis (UT)
• Lisa Murkowski (AK)
• Rand Paul (KY)

Since Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is not voting right now, a "nay" from any three of these five people would torpedo the approval. Also, don't sleep on the possibility of a surprise "nay" from someone who is not on this list.

What might be giving these senators pause? Only they know for sure, but there are two obvious possibilities that suggest themselves. The first is that nobody really believes the Trump slush fund/IRS amnesty is really dead. The documents that Blanche posted to eX-Twitter on Sunday night have, according to legal experts, more holes than a wheel of Swiss cheese. To take one obvious problem, a settlement cannot be vacated unless all parties to the settlement sign off on that. This did not happen here.

The other problem, which comes somewhat out of left field, is that there is concern among evangelicals that Blanche is not sufficiently committed to keeping abortion as illegal as is possible, in as many places as is possible. It was reported yesterday that the would-be AG has been working the phones with evangelical leaders to assure them that he really, really opposes reproductive choice. If there is an out-of-nowhere "nay" on Blanche's confirmation, it will likely be a deep-red-state senator voting "nay" for this reason.

Despite all this, we still think Blanche is on the glide path to confirmation. The five senators listed above are not saying "yes," it is true, but they are not saying "no," either. And Thune knows a thing or two about whipping votes. It remains our guess that Cassidy and Curtis will fall in line, Paul will cross the aisle, and the two women will split their votes. And of the two women, our guess is that Murkowski will be the yea, so as to give Collins the ability to cast a "principled" nay vote (or a vote of "present").

It also remains the case that even if and when Blanche gets the job, he may live to regret it. The much-more-unfettered Donald Trump of Trump v2.0 demands that his AG and his Department of Justice do his bidding, at all times. The problem is that there's a pesky little thing called the Judicial Branch, where the great majority of the judges are not Trump lackeys. It's easy for Robert Kennedy Jr. at HHS or Doug Burgum at Interior to offer up whatever blather the President demands. But the AG and his underlings have to actually put together credible court filings, and get them past a grand jury, and then a judge, and then a petit jury (or then a judge again). That is where the rubber meets the road.

At this very moment, Blanche is getting an object lesson in how things work, courtesy of a colleague whose office is just down the street from his, namely U.S. Attorney for Washington D.C. Jeanine Pirro. She was more than willing to adopt the Trump party line on the Lincoln Reflecting Pool, and to claim that the damage done was the work of vandals. Consequently, she secured, and got, five indictments of alleged vandals.

The problem here is that the evidence supports the conclusion that this was an incompetent (no-bid) contractor who had no experience with this kind of job, and no business doing this kind of job. That contractor got an "assist" from Trump himself, who ordered that "The Beast" and other vehicles be driven onto the new surface, while it was still curing, for an inspection.

As we noted yesterday, Pirro could not make Trump's version of events stand up in court, because judges are sticklers for, you know, evidence. Those squares. So, Pirro had to dismiss the case against former Olympian David Hearn on Friday of last week, and the cases against three other defendants were dismissed yesterday. The DOJ was also forced to admit to the truth of why the Reflecting Pool turned disastrous.

The DOJ's version of events—aka the correct version—makes Trump look like a liar, and makes his administration look incompetent. He doesn't much care about the former, but he is enraged by the latter. So, the President is sticking with his fantasy version of what went wrong, and is hinting that Pirro may be sacked in short order.

So, Todd Blanche, even if and when you win the current battle, that is just the beginning. You'll want to make sure to lay in a large supply of antacid, and to avoid signing a lease for longer than a year. In fact, you might want to check and see if your landlord is open to one of those 6-month student leases. (Z)

The GOP Has Its Own Platner-Type Problems

We had an item yesterday about Rep. Max Miller (R-OH), who is the target of some very serious allegations of abuse from his ex-wife (Emily Moreno) and his ex-girlfriend (Stephanie Grisham).

Miller's position has gone from bad to worse in the 24 hours since we wrote that. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), father to Emily, was the first to break ranks and to call for Miller to end his political career. Yesterday, a bunch of other senators, including Roger Marshall (KS) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV), said they'd like to see Miller go. Around the same time, Grisham filed for a new restraining order against Miller, which serves to remind everyone there's a pattern of behavior here. Also around the same time, Jim Renacci, who used to represent Miller's district before mounting a failed campaign for the Senate, helpfully announced that he's available to take Miller's spot on the ballot should Miller drop his reelection bid. And, in the cruelest blow of all (from Miller's vantage point), he got a phone call from Donald Trump hinting that it's over, and that maybe the Representative should drop out and resign from Congress.

We have no idea what will happen here. Miller has thus far dug his heels in, and has spent much time on eX-Twitter insisting that it's all lies. He also does not seem the type to fall on his sword for the good of the party. On the other hand, if Trump is serious, that's not easy for a MAGA Republican like Miller to ignore. Also, while Miller is the only person who can end his reelection bid, his colleagues in the House could expel him from his seat right now if he refuses to expel himself. They could also expel him again next January if he stays in the race and wins.

And, as chance would have it, Miller is not the only member of the House Republican Conference who is problematic in this general way. Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) was creepy with his young, female staffers. He gave them personalized handguns, read them steamy poems, sent suggestive text messages, and maneuvered to spend time alone with many of them. He is not accused of any physical contact, or even with propositioning anyone, but the behavior was bad enough, and pervasive enough, that the House Ethics Committee voted yesterday to recommend censure for Edwards. The whole House will put it to a vote later this week.

Many Republicans in Congress would be very happy if both of these Representatives moved on to greener pastures. The GOP really wants to wield Platner as a cudgel, in hopes of holding on to as many women voters as is possible. That becomes considerably more difficult when the Democrats have rid themselves of their (allegedly) abusive candidate, while the Republicans have two (allegedly) abusive candidates who are not only running for reelection, but are also currently serving in Congress.

Another problem is that the GOP is trying desperately to hold on to as many seats as is possible, in hopes of maybe holding on to their majority. As chance would have it, both Miller and Edwards represent R+5 districts. Combine their dirty laundry with a potential blue wave, and the red team could see two really-should-be-safe seats slip away. (Z)

The Maine Senate Race Is Taking Shape...

As long as we are on the subject of Graham Platner, and the Senate race he was compelled to abandon, the two major-party candidates in Maine appear to be settling on their strategies for the roughly 100-day sprint that has been set up by the oysterman's decline and fall.

Starting with the incumbent, Susan Collins and her people think that Democratic nominee Troy Jackson offers a veritable smorgasbord of possibilities. They plan to attack him as a flip-flopper and a "career politician" who loses a lot of elections. He's also a socialist, a person with anger problems and an illegitimate nominee (like Kamala Harris). Also—and here is an example of Republicans trying to be "down with the kiddies," but not really getting it—they plan to hammer on Jackson's lack of "rizz."

We are sure that GOP operatives have done plenty of focus grouping, but we're rather unimpressed by much of this list. It is, for example, somewhat difficult to be both a "career politician" and someone who loses a lot of elections. It is also rather rich for five-term senator Collins, or any of her surrogates, to speak disdainfully about career politicians. We also doubt the efficacy of the "illegitimate nominee" bit, since it's not Jackson's fault that Platner dropped out, and since there was a process (as opposed to a coronation, as was basically the case with Harris). More broadly, however, we wonder if the Collins campaign is about to fall victim to the error of the Clinton 2016 campaign, and to spend too much time harping on the weaknesses of the opposition, in an unfocused way. If the best a five-term senator can do is to make her campaign about how bad the other nominee sucks, then at least pick one or two things and stay laser-focused on those.

And speaking of laser-focus, that brings us to the strategy of Troy Jackson's campaign. He plans to hammer on two main themes: (1) "Collins is a phony who lied about serving only two terms, and who claims to be 'concerned' when she really isn't, whereas I am genuine" and (2) "Collins is an establishment politician who forgot she works for the people, whereas I am a populist who cares about the little guy." This strikes us as a more effective battle plan than the one Team Collins is working on.

If you would like to see a sample of the Jackson Plan is in action, the campaign just released its first ad:

Did you realize that Jackson used to be a logger, and that he comes from a family of loggers? Hard to believe that hasn't come up before.

Over the weekend, incidentally, a couple of skeletons—though that may be too strong a word—emerged from Jackson's closet. First, a conservative publication in Maine alleged that Lana Pelletier, his longtime partner, and the mother of his two children, is his second cousin. It is not entirely clear that this is true, or that Jackson and Pelletier knew, even if it is true. Beyond that, however, it's neither illegal nor taboo to have a romantic relationship with a second cousin.

The other skeleton is even less skeleton-y. CNN has been digging through social media for dirt, as they did with Platner, and they came up with this: More than a decade ago, Jackson created a burner social media account, under the screen name "Canadians for LePage," that he (Jackson) used to troll then-governor Paul LePage (R). Will this be a bug for potential Jackson voters, or will it be more of a feature? In any event, if this, the second-cousin thing and the water-bottle incident are the dirtiest dirt that has emerged, it suggests that Jackson is probably pretty squeaky clean.

There still hasn't been much polling of the race. The only survey so far is the University of New Hampshire poll, which had Jackson at 49% and Collins at 46%. That's within the margin of error of course, but Democrats have to be thrilled with that as a starting point. It's certainly an affirmation that dumping Platner was not instantly fatal. We presume there will be more polling in the next few weeks, though it's true there aren't that many pollsters that specialize in Maine. What's the deal, Quinnipiac? Hamden, CT, is only 150 miles or so from Maine. (Z)

...And So Is the Special Primary in South Carolina

The 100 or so days that Mainers have to decide on their next senator is positively luxuriant as compared to the roughly 28 days that South Carolinians have to pick a replacement for Lindsey Graham (and, by extension, their next senator). Yesterday, the five viable candidates met in the first of two debates, both of them scheduled for this week (inasmuch as the first round of voting is next Tuesday).

If any reader wants to watch the debate, here it is:

There were two things about it that were predictable. The first is that everyone on stage, except for Darline Graham, attacked Graham for her lack of experience. The second is that everyone on stage said that they had consulted with the mirror, mirror on the wall and had confirmed that they, are, in fact the Trumpiest one of all.

There was also one thing about the debate that was not predictable. Several of the candidates, including Graham, said they want to get rid of the Senate filibuster. In a world where Senate candidates from both parties are calling for an end to the practice, and where the old guard is retiring (Mitch McConnell) or dead (Lindsey Graham), change is coming, and probably sooner rather than later. The only real question is which party moves first.

The problem, for all of the candidates not named Darline Graham, is that if the key question is "Who is Trumpiest?", well, Graham has the President's endorsement and the other four people on stage do not. And Trump's influence is now showing up in polls. There were three new polls released over the weekend, and one of them had Graham leading her closest opponent by 14 points (30% to 16% for Rep. Russell Fry), while another had her leading by 10 (27% for Graham to 17% each for Fry and Rep. Ralph Norman). The third had Norman up 3 on Graham (22% to 19%).

The upshot is that this is going to go to a runoff, and Graham is almost certainly going to be one of the two candidates who survives to the final round. At that point, we have to assume that "she's Trump's candidate" will be enough to carry the day in a state Trump won by 18, 12 and 14 points in his three elections. What we don't know is what kind of a senator Graham will be. Will she be Graham-the-hawk or Graham-the-sycophant? (Z)

Political Bytes, National Edition: The Red Menace

We haven't had one of these for something like 3 weeks. We simply have to catch up.

Who's the Communist?, Part I: The Trump administration has made it a policy to acquire equity stakes in many different corporations. After all, Trump was elected to be CEO of USA, Inc. Late last week, just in time for the slow part of the news cycle, the Department of Commerce announced that it was taking stakes in seven more companies, all of them in the business of manufacturing semiconductors.

Our Take: Government ownership of the means of production (at least, until the government is abolished) is the core tenet of The Communist Manifesto. Despite what Republican candidates would have you believe this campaign season (and every campaign season since about 1948), the most Marxist politicians in the country are not found in the Democratic Party.

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Who's the Communist?, Part II: Meanwhile, alleged communist Zohran Mamdani (D-New York City) is getting rave reviews for cutting red tape and making it easier to do business in the Big Apple.

Our Take: So, Republicans are trying to take over the means of production and Democrats are cutting regulations and promoting capitalism. Also, up is down, black is white, cats and dogs have become best friends and the clocks are striking thirteen.

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Running Scared, Part I: In the race for Texas' U.S. Senate seat, Democrat James Talarico has agreed to participate in three debates, while Republican Ken Paxton has refused to even commit to one.

Our Take: It's no secret that Talarico is an excellent public speaker and Paxton is a terrible one. Plus, it's not easy to figure out a debate schedule when you have to work around the trips you're taking to London with your mistress.

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Running Scared, Part II: Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), running for his state's U.S. Senate seat, has a black sheep in the family. Well, more like a white sheep. Actually, more like a white supremacist sheep. It's his son-in-law, who has promoted both white supremacist and antisemitic content online. Collins doesn't particularly want to alienate racist voters, but he also doesn't want to hug his son-in-law close, so he's refusing to answer questions about the situation.

Our Take: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) has raised $98 million so far, Collins has raised less than $8 million. Polls have Ossoff with an average of 50% support, Collins with 42.5%. Hard to imagine why.

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Don Trump: Capital One shut down accounts owned by Donald Trump, his sons, and his businesses. The Trumps claimed it was for political reasons (which, it should be noted, is a legal basis for refusing to do business with someone). In court yesterday, attorneys for the bank explained that the accounts were actually closed because there were too many red flags for money laundering.

Our Take: Is anyone surprised? What are the odds that, one day, we learn that the Trumps' main source of income from, say, 1995-2015, wasn't licensing the family name, it was money laundering? 20%? 30%? 50%?

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No Arc Support: The National Park Service, which is apparently one of the few portions of the federal bureaucracy that has not been compromised, just released a list of 40 sites in Washington that will be negatively impacted, in one way or another, by the Arc de Trump.

Our Take: Trump does not care one bit about any of this, and if he can get the Arc built, he will get it built. However, it does make it much easier for the next Democratic administration to tear the thing down.

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Speaking of Monuments: John F. Kennedy actually earned his monument, namely the Kennedy Center. Trump tried to horn in on JFK's territory, which is certainly more efficient than building your own monument. The problem is that neither the Kennedy family nor the courts were impressed. Trump's name did come down, but the tarps hiding the restored facade are still up, well over a month later. A judge has demanded answers as to why the tarps are still there.

Our Take: Because Trump has a paper-thin ego, Judge. Any other questions?

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Speaking of Johns: Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA) got some ugly polling news this week. According to PennLive/Bravo Group, when Pennsylvania voters are given the choice between Fetterman and "someone else," the Senator lost to "someone else" by 18 points, 58% to 40%.

Our Take: That's not quite as bad as it seems, as a lot of that 58% is people who never voted for Fetterman in the first place. Still, he's a very unpopular fellow. He hasn't said much about running for reelection, but if that's his plan, he might want to think again. It is virtually certain he will face a primary, probably by former Rep. Conor Lamb and others.

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Bad Analogies: A couple of weeks ago, we wrote that USA Today columnist Nancy Armour had locked up the "Worst Analogy of the Year" award with her comparison of Caitlin Clark to the people who killed Emmett Till. Numerous readers wrote in and said that Armour probably does deserve that award, but that when they first read the header, they thought we were referring to this story, about how Republicans are pushing for Voter ID laws by noting that if you have an all-you-can-eat pasta pass at Olive Garden, you have to show ID to get your food. If you have to show ID for pasta, GOP politicians are observing, you should have to show ID to vote.

Our Take: That is also a very poor analogy. First of all, voting is a constitutional right, all-you-can-eat pasta is not. Second, there is no evidence of widespread voting fraud, while Olive Garden implemented the ID policy after many people were caught sharing their all-you-can-eat pasta cards with their friends.

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Old Man Shakes Fist at Cloud: Former senator Joe Manchin, who is 78, has launched something called the Independent Leadership Council to support independent candidates for political office.

Our Take: Manchin has a very particular idea, formed over 60 years ago, of how politics should be, and he keeps trying to force the system to bend to his vision. Independents rarely win elections and, when they do, they're just "independents" who are either Democrats in all but name (see Sanders, Bernie) or, more rarely, Republicans in all but name. Manchin has been around long enough to know this, so either he's in denial, or he's just hungry for attention now that he's not a U.S. Senator anymore.

Phew. We cleared at least some of the backlog. (Z & A)

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