What a terrible weekend. Our thoughts go out to the family, friends and colleagues of the victims
of the shootings at Brown University and in Australia, and of Rob Reiner and his wife.
We had a week's worth of Hanukkah-centered games planned, but that's just not appropriate today, so we'll start them
tomorrow.
Some Republicans in Indiana tried, and failed, to draw a new House district map. Donald Trump may turn the screws on them and try to get that reversed, but for the time being, it looks like Indiana will keep the old map. Could this signal a (temporary) truce in the redistricting wars? Democrats in Illinois said that if Indiana redistricted, they would too, but now that Indiana won't maybe Illinois won't either. The state Senate presidents of Indiana and Maryland had a phone call recently and now it looks like Maryland won't redraw, either (note that doing that would have been very difficult).
Still, there could be movement in some other states. Here is the state of play right now:
We are most of the way toward turning the House into the Electoral College. Whichever party controls the state gets all the House seats. It's all or none, which is how the Electoral College works in 48 states. This was definitely not what the Founders had in mind, but who cares about what the Founders wanted when there is power to be had? (V)
Republicans sense that if nothing is done about health care and fast, premiums will spike and Democrats will wield that like a cudgel to pound Republicans with in the midterms. But the hardliners in their own party will not let them allow the ACA subsidies to be extended. The Senate failed to pass either the Democratic bill or the Republican bill last week. Now, House Republicans are trying.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and his colleagues have concocted a bill called the "Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act." That is a lie right there. The "Rainbows and Unicorns Act" would have been more accurate—or shorter, at least. One of the key features is expanding Health Savings Accounts. These allow people to save for their own health care with some tax advantages. It also allows employers to get together to buy health insurance together for their employees, giving them more clout. There is also a provision that targets pharmacy benefit managers and is aimed at lowering drug costs. The bill also helps small businesses buy health insurance for employees.
This bill probably won't pass the House, but if it does Senate Democrats will kill it. The bill also does not extend the subsidies, so people using the ACA will see their payments spike and that will be bad news for the Republicans. Saying "we tried" is not likely to placate many people. (V)
For most voters, the economy and affordability are the big issues and Donald Trump's grade on this keeps dropping. A new AP/NORC poll has Trump's approval rating on the economy at a dismal 31%, his lowest ever. Among all voters, 68% say the economy is in poor shape. Even 44% of Republicans agree with this. Half of Americans say it is harder than usual to afford holiday gifts and half are cutting back on nonessential purchases. A vast majority say groceries and electricity are getting more expensive. Even among Republicans, 40% are hunting for lower prices more than they normally would.
Interestingly enough, the poll results are very similar to an AP/NORC poll in Dec. 2022, when Joe Biden was president. The key word was "inflation" then rather than "affordability," but in both cases what people meant was they were struggling economically.
Donald Trump's response is a planned road trip in which he will barnstorm the country to tell voters that their observation that prices are up is wrong and the economy is great. Telling them to get their daughters two pencils and three dolls (instead of 37) is not likely to put many people (except Democratic strategists) at ease. Yesterday, on Face the Nation, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent responded to the polls by blaming the media for giving everyone the idea that people are having a rough time. As proof, he noted that gas prices are falling. Michael Strain, an economist at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute said that Joe Biden tried the same approach and it didn't work for him and won't work for Trump. Adding to Trump's tone-deafness is a cabinet full of billionaires and his focus on building a $300 million ballroom paid for by more billionaires at a time when regular people are suffering.
Another approach the administration is taking is blaming the economy on Biden. Bessent said: "We've got this embedded inflation from the Biden years." Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: "That Biden-economy hangover is real." But several polls have shown that the voters blame Trump's tariffs, not Biden.
Will things get better next year? People don't think so. About 40% think things will be worse, 30% expect more of the same, and only 20% think things will be better. Having people expecting the future to be no better than the present is never a good sign for an incumbent party in an election year, especially a midterm year. (V)
Back in March, Donald Trump invoked the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to hastily send 130 immigrants to a gulag in El Salvador. A lawyer for the men went to court to stop the deportations. U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, a Barack Obama appointee who was unanimously confirmed by the Senate, ruled that the men were entitled to due process to see if they had indeed committed any offenses that would subject them to deportation. Boasberg believed that the law did not grant DHS the power to arrest and deport anyone the Department wanted to without a judge ruling that the person had indeed committed some kind of crime. He also ordered that the deportations in progress be stopped and the planes turned around and return to the U.S. The DHS defied his orders and when the prisoners arrived in El Salvador, they were met by a DHS camera crew to record their arrival as a publicity stunt. Almost immediately, Boasberg started a process to find out which officials had been informed of his order and which ones defied it. All the administration did was stonewall.
Boasberg was not amused. After months of their delaying tactics, he scheduled a hearing for today to see whether any government officials knowingly and intentionally violated his order to have the planes come back and not land in El Salvador. The administration's response to the planned hearing was to ask the U.S. Court of Appeals for D.C. to block the hearing. On Friday, a divided three-judge panel paused the hearing. In favor of pausing it were Judges Neomi Rao and Justin Walker, both of whom are Trump appointees who were narrowly confirmed by the Senate along party lines. Opposing the pause was Judge Julianna Michele Childs, a Biden appointee who was confirmed 64-34.
Although the hearing will not take place today as scheduled, Boasberg will not be silenced. On Friday, he noted: "This inquiry is not some academic exercise. Approximately 137 men were spirited out of this country without a hearing and placed in a high-security prison in El Salvador, where many suffered abuse and possible torture, despite this Court's order that they should not be disembarked. The question the Court must now answer is whether this occurred via contumacious conduct by Government officials." To be continued. (V)
Short quiz: Which of these is different from the others: Pravda, Xinhua, CNN and CBS News? Sometimes oligarchs and authoritarians are aligned, but for different reasons. It's complicated. Keep reading for the answer.
David Ellison, the son of the second richest person in the world, Larry Ellison, wanted to be an actor. He failed miserably, so he formed a company called Skydance with Dad's money, and began producing (reasonably) successful movies. Earlier this year he bought Paramount and its vast film library. Owning Paramount made him a serious Hollywood movie mogul.
Separate from Ellison, In 2022, Warner Bros. bought Discovery and its other channels, using a ton of borrowed money. The merged company, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), is struggling under a debt load of $35 billion. Management decided to sell the company. Netflix agreed to buy it for $83 billion. While nobody says this out loud, it is obvious that Netflix wants to kill off the movie theater business. If the deal goes through—and this will require government approval (foreshadowing!)—then Netflix will be able to stream all of Paramount's giant film library. Furthermore, Paramount is actively producing many new films. In Netflix' vision, all of those will go directly to streaming, largely putting movie theaters out of business. Netflix wouldn't mind this at all. In fact, it rather likes the idea.
Now here is where it gets complicated. WBD also owns CNN. CNN is a microscopic speck of the company and is losing money. From a financial standpoint it is lost in the weeds. Now Ellison fils has made a hostile bid for WBD. With the financial help of Jared Kushner and a bunch of Arab sheikhs, Ellison is offering $30/share for a total of $108 billion in cash. He doesn't give a hoot about CNN, but wants all of Warner's old and new movies. This would make him King of Hollywood. In the end, the WBD stockholders will get to decide which bid to accept. It is rare for stockholders to oppose management's position, and management wants to sell the company to Netfix. It sees streaming as the future and wants to be part of it. Here is the WBD stock price since 2021:
For Ellison fils, this is just a business deal. But now, consider Donald Trump's view. He doesn't care much about the movie business and Netfix is kind of neutral to him, but he cares enormously about CNN. Ellison père is a huge Trump supporter. Trump understands that he can tell Ellison père that he supports Skydance-Paramount's purchase of WBD and would make sure it is approved quickly, provided that Ellison fils then fires all the CNN anchors Trump dislikes and replaces them with Trump-friendly ones. Ellison père has already lobbied Trump and discussed firing the CNN anchors to grease the skids for the deal. Erin Burnett and Brianna Keilar will be the first to go, followed by more later. Although Ellison père doesn't have a management role in Paramount, he owns quite a bit of its stock and he knows the CEO (Ellison fils) quite well. Then CNN would become a state-run media company, like Pravda, Xinhua, and CBS News (the latter now run by Trump-friendly Bari Weiss). So the answer to the quiz above is that at the moment, CNN is not a state-run media company, but it could soon be if Paramount buys WBD.
Netflix has no particular interest in owning CNN or any of WBDs other television stations and would probably sell them to the highest bidder.
So here we see the alignment of the oligarchs and the authoritarians. The Ellison oligarchs want Paramount for business reasons. They don't care at all about CNN. Trump wants CNN to be owned by his cronies. He doesn't care at all who owns the movies. It is a perfect fit. Vladimir Putin is probably thinking: "Trump is a better businessman than I thought. Even I couldn't have engineered a better deal."
In the PR war for the stockholders' votes, the Ellisons will say that want to keep movie theaters alive as a going business so you can go to the movies with your family and friends. They will claim (possibly correctly) that if Netflix buys WBD, movie theaters are doomed but if Paramount buys it, there will be lots of new (and old) movies at a theater near you. On the other hand, Netflix will say: "Don't you want to watch Warner Bros.' great movies from the comfort of your living room, which is much cheaper and more convenient than going to a theater full of rude, noisy, germ-ridden people?"
If Paramount wins and turns CNN into Fox Lite, many viewers will decamp for greener pastures elsewhere. Then advertisers will leave, leaving less money for reporting, which will cause more viewers to leave. The end game could be Paramount simply closing down CNN. Trump might well be happy with that outcome.
To make things more fun, Comcast is also interested in buying WBD. It owns NBC News and just got rid of MSNBC, thus starving MSNBC of NBC News' newsgathering resources. This could also be worth something to Trump, but most likely he would prefer the Ellisons. If Comcast launches a bid, it will be a longshot and do to so, it would have to outbid the Ellisons. Comcast's capitalized value is $100 billion, so it would have to bid more than the entire company is worth. Comcast's executives understand that the cable TV business is dying, so they want to get into the business of owning content.
So here are the stakes. If Netflix wins, movie theaters die but democracy lives. If Paramount wins, state-run media happens and democracy dies but movie theaters live. If you own any WBD stock, you get a say in this.
And there is even more. Ellison already owns CBS and is a likely buyer or partner in buying TikTok. Elon Musk bought eX-Twitter. The oligarchs are taking over the traditional media and are hard at work buying social media. They know that having the media fawn over the president and avoid criticizing him is the path to financial success. A free press? What a quaint idea. (V)
The first time Donald Trump ran for president, in 2016, it was basically a joke. He thought if he ran and came in, say, fourth in the Republican primaries, he could use that to try to get NBC to pay him more for his TV program The Apprentice. He was never intending to even get the nomination, let alone win the general election. But during his first term, Trump began to realize that the presidency could be monetized. Trump v2.0 is really about three things: MAWA, getting even with his "enemies," and turning the presidency into a money-making machine, and not necessarily in that order. Some musicians eventually make an album with their "Greatest Hits." Here is a list of The Donald's "Greatest Grifts."
The great thing about $TRUMP is that at $5.40, even poor Trump supporters can afford one. For the rubes wise
investors who got in early at $45, don't worry, it will come back, we're sure.
The corruption here is just staggering. The Teapot Dome scandal was over 100 years ago and every schoolchild knows about it. It was for a bribe of a mere $400,000 (equivalent to $7 million now) and President Warren Harding didn't get the money himself and may not even have been aware of what Secretary of the Interior Albert Fall was up to. If the next administration does a thorough examination of this administration's corruption and writes a report on it, schoolchildren will learn about the corruption of this administration until the sun becomes a red giant in 5 billion years and swallows the earth. (V)
By law, the Trump administration has to release all the Epstein files. Except for the ones it doesn't like, of course. However, there is a small problem. Other parties also have some relevant material—in particular, Jeffrey Epstein's estate. The estate has just released to the House Oversight Committee 95,000 photos to leer at. Epstein was apparently a big fan of the photographic arts. Democrats on the Committee are busy curating them, but have released 19 of them. The website NOTUS posted them here for your viewing pleasure. Here are three of them.
The top one above gives lie to any attempt by Trump to claim he and Epstein were just (business) friends and that he didn't know anything about the girls. The woman in the second one hasn't been identified yet but is probably not a victim or she would have been censored. The third one is interesting because in the sketch, Trump looks really grumpy. Why?
The other ones show a number of famous men who had contact with Epstein. They include Woody Allen, Steve Bannon, Richard Branson, Bill Clinton, Alan Dershowitz, Bill Gates, Larry Summers, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and others. Epstein sure had a lot of famous friends. When the photos were released, Bill Gates said he was embarrassed to be in the collection, but he once had dinner with Epstein to try to get him to donate to Gates' projects to provide health care in Africa. Gates has been in the public eye for decades and this is his first mini-scandal, so he may well having been telling the truth. About the others, we're not so sure.
If more photos showing Trump with girls emerge, it is not going to be easy to keep calling this a hoax. A new Reuters-Ipsos poll shows that 70% of respondents (including 62% of Republicans) think the government is hiding stuff from the public. Although Democrats are likely to run in 2026 on affordability, a secondary theme in some affluent districts could be: "Trump is insanely corrupt and hiding his bad behavior from the country." In the same poll, 60% thought Trump knew about Epstein's crimes and only 18% thought he didn't know. (V)
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is running for the Senate in Texas, to the dismay of many Democrats who see her as unelectable and think she is doing this as a giant ego trip. Things she has said in the past (e.g., about the police) are going to be used against the entire Democratic Party. Democratic strategist James Carville is still kicking around and sometimes still has interesting things to say: Last week he commented on Crockett, saying: "First of all, she seems like she's well-educated. Seems like she's got a lot of energy. But she, to me, she violates the first rule of politics and that is, in politics, you always make it about the voters and never about yourself. If you listen to her talk, it's a lot more about herself than it is about the voters." He also said that winning elections is about framing issues and understanding where people come from and Crockett is not good at that.
Mike Johnson kind of agreed, although from a different point of view. He said: "I'm absolutely delighted that Jasmine Crockett is running for Senate in Texas. I think it's one of the greatest things that's happened to the Republican Party in a long, long time." What he didn't say is that win or lose, she's out of the House and not his problem any more. Separately, Johnson and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said they will make her the face of the Democratic Party.
Donald Trump also piled on: "She's a low-IQ person. I can't imagine she wins. Maybe she'll get the Democratic nomination, but I think it's a gift to Republicans. I've watched her for the last two years. I can't even believe she's a politician, actually."
If she wins the Democratic primary, the blue team will write off Texas. If state Rep. James Talarico (D) wins it and Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) wins the Republican primary, the Democrats have an outside chance if there is a huge blue wave, although the Republicans will campaign against him as though he were Crockett and blame him for everything she ever said. (V)
The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued Donald Trump on Friday, claiming he unlawfully destroyed part of the White House. By law, the White House is not his personal property and any proposed changes to it have to be reviewed by the National Capital Planning Commission. He also violated the law requiring an environmental study first. The Trust is asking the court to ban any construction work until the case has been fully adjudicated. That could take years.
Carol Quillen, CEO of the Trust, said the organization doesn't object to a ballroom outright, only to Trump's bypassing the process to make sure the public has a say in it in order to protect a building that belongs to the people.
A WaPo/ABC News poll shows that 56% of Americans oppose the ballroom and 28% support it. Support is much greater among Republicans, with 62% in favor of it, while 88% of Democrats oppose it. (V)
The U.S. was declared measles-free in 2000, due to a long and intensive campaign of vaccinating children. However, Jan. 20, 2026, will mark 12 uninterrupted months of measles transmission, at which time the U.S. will lose its status as a measles-free country. While many people think measles is no worse than a cold, that is not true. Of every 1,000 people who contract measles, 200 end up in a hospital with complications like pneumonia or brain swelling and 3 die from it.
Due to the dropoff in vaccination rates precipitated by Secretary of "Health" and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr., measles has made a comeback and cases are on the upswing. There have been 47 outbreaks this year. South Carolina recently quarantined 354 people. In Texas, more than 700 cases have been confirmed. Nationally, the case count is over 1,900, and growing rapidly, and this for a disease that was declared gone in 2000. At least one child has died of measles this year. Fiona Havers, an adjunct associate professor of medicine at Emory University and expert on infectious diseases, said: "This is a very clear example of the damage that the anti-vaccine movement has done in the United States."
In South Carolina, where many children remain unvaccinated, it is beginning to feel like the pandemic is back. In Spartanburg County, for example, only 90% of the students are vaccinated, below the 95% public health officials deem the minimum to stop the spread of measles, which is highly contagious. Some children are being pulled out of school. Some adults are calling in "sick" to stay home from work to take care of them. Parents of children too young to be vaccinated or who are medically unable to be vaccinated are panicking. People are reconsidering getting together for the holidays. And all of this is unnecessary. When COVID-19 first appeared, there was no vaccine for it. In contrast, a safe, effective, and cheap measles vaccine has been available for over 60 years. If you think this is bad, just wait until polio makes a comeback. (V)