This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Harris | 32% | Trump | 60% | Trump +28 | Apr 21 |
Alaska | Harris | 43% | Trump | 52% | Trump +9 | Sep 28 |
Arizona | Harris | 47% | Trump | 49% | Trump +2 | Oct 10 |
Arkansas | Harris | 40% | Trump | 55% | Trump +15 | Sep 06 |
California | Harris | 57% | Trump | 35% | Harris +22 | Sep 30 |
Colorado | Harris | 53% | Trump | 42% | Harris +11 | Sep 18 |
Connecticut | Harris | 53% | Trump | 37% | Harris +16 | Sep 18 |
D.C. | Harris | 93% | Trump | 6% | Harris +87 | Jan 01 |
Delaware | Harris | 56% | Trump | 36% | Harris +20 | Sep 19 |
Florida | Harris | 44% | Trump | 52% | Trump +8 | Oct 07 |
Georgia | Harris | 49% | Trump | 48% | Harris +1 | Oct 08 |
Hawaii | Harris | 55% | Trump | 33% | Harris +22 | Apr 21 |
Idaho | Harris | 30% | Trump | 62% | Trump +32 | Apr 21 |
Illinois | Harris | 58% | Trump | 42% | Harris +16 | Aug 29 |
Indiana | Harris | 40% | Trump | 57% | Trump +17 | Sep 13 |
Iowa | Harris | 43% | Trump | 47% | Trump +4 | Sep 11 |
Kansas | Harris | 44% | Trump | 49% | Trump +5 | Apr 21 |
Kentucky | Harris | 35% | Trump | 60% | Trump +25 | Apr 21 |
Louisiana | Harris | 33% | Trump | 48% | Trump +15 | Apr 26 |
Maine | Harris | 50% | Trump | 41% | Harris +9 | Sep 15 |
Maryland | Harris | 60% | Trump | 33% | Harris +27 | Sep 28 |
Massachusetts | Harris | 61% | Trump | 32% | Harris +29 | Oct 05 |
Michigan | Harris | 49% | Trump | 48% | Harris +1 | Oct 08 |
Minnesota | Harris | 49% | Trump | 43% | Harris +6 | Sep 18 |
Mississippi | Harris | 42% | Trump | 51% | Trump +9 | Apr 21 |
Missouri | Harris | 43% | Trump | 53% | Trump +10 | Sep 13 |
Montana | Harris | 40% | Trump | 57% | Trump +17 | Oct 08 |
Nebraska | Harris | 40% | Trump | 56% | Trump +16 | Sep 22 |
Nevada | Harris | 46% | Trump | 49% | Trump +3 | Oct 08 |
New Hampshire | Harris | 51% | Trump | 44% | Harris +7 | Oct 02 |
New Jersey | Harris | 51% | Trump | 42% | Harris +9 | Apr 21 |
New Mexico | Harris | 50% | Trump | 41% | Harris +9 | Sep 18 |
New York | Harris | 54% | Trump | 40% | Harris +14 | Sep 25 |
North Carolina | Harris | 48% | Trump | 49% | Trump +1 | Oct 08 |
North Dakota | Harris | 37% | Trump | 55% | Trump +18 | Apr 21 |
Ohio | Harris | 46% | Trump | 52% | Trump +6 | Oct 07 |
Oklahoma | Harris | 40% | Trump | 56% | Trump +16 | Aug 30 |
Oregon | Harris | 51% | Trump | 39% | Harris +12 | Apr 21 |
Pennsylvania | Harris | 49% | Trump | 48% | Harris +1 | Oct 10 |
Rhode Island | Harris | 54% | Trump | 39% | Harris +15 | Sep 19 |
South Carolina | Harris | 42% | Trump | 52% | Trump +10 | Sep 29 |
South Dakota | Harris | 31% | Trump | 50% | Trump +19 | May 13 |
Tennessee | Harris | 37% | Trump | 63% | Trump +26 | Aug 29 |
Texas | Harris | 45% | Trump | 51% | Trump +6 | Oct 07 |
Utah | Harris | 28% | Trump | 60% | Trump +32 | Aug 09 |
Vermont | Harris | 70% | Trump | 29% | Harris +41 | Aug 19 |
Virginia | Harris | 52% | Trump | 41% | Harris +11 | Oct 04 |
Washington | Harris | 53% | Trump | 32% | Harris +21 | Sep 06 |
West Virginia | Harris | 34% | Trump | 61% | Trump +27 | Aug 27 |
Wisconsin | Harris | 49% | Trump | 49% | Tied | Oct 08 |
Wyoming | Harris | 26% | Trump | 67% | Trump +41 | Apr 21 |