State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Harris 32% Trump 60% Trump +28 Apr 21
Alaska Harris 43% Trump 52% Trump +9 Sep 28
Arizona Harris 47% Trump 49% Trump +2 Oct 10
Arkansas Harris 40% Trump 55% Trump +15 Sep 06
California Harris 57% Trump 35% Harris +22 Sep 30
Colorado Harris 53% Trump 42% Harris +11 Sep 18
Connecticut Harris 53% Trump 37% Harris +16 Sep 18
D.C. Harris 93% Trump 6% Harris +87 Jan 01
Delaware Harris 56% Trump 36% Harris +20 Sep 19
Florida Harris 44% Trump 52% Trump +8 Oct 07
Georgia Harris 49% Trump 48% Harris +1 Oct 08
Hawaii Harris 55% Trump 33% Harris +22 Apr 21
Idaho Harris 30% Trump 62% Trump +32 Apr 21
Illinois Harris 58% Trump 42% Harris +16 Aug 29
Indiana Harris 40% Trump 57% Trump +17 Sep 13
Iowa Harris 43% Trump 47% Trump +4 Sep 11
Kansas Harris 44% Trump 49% Trump +5 Apr 21
Kentucky Harris 35% Trump 60% Trump +25 Apr 21
Louisiana Harris 33% Trump 48% Trump +15 Apr 26
Maine Harris 50% Trump 41% Harris +9 Sep 15
Maryland Harris 60% Trump 33% Harris +27 Sep 28
Massachusetts Harris 61% Trump 32% Harris +29 Oct 05
Michigan Harris 49% Trump 48% Harris +1 Oct 08
Minnesota Harris 49% Trump 43% Harris +6 Sep 18
Mississippi Harris 42% Trump 51% Trump +9 Apr 21
Missouri Harris 43% Trump 53% Trump +10 Sep 13
Montana Harris 40% Trump 57% Trump +17 Oct 08
Nebraska Harris 40% Trump 56% Trump +16 Sep 22
Nevada Harris 46% Trump 49% Trump +3 Oct 08
New Hampshire Harris 51% Trump 44% Harris +7 Oct 02
New Jersey Harris 51% Trump 42% Harris +9 Apr 21
New Mexico Harris 50% Trump 41% Harris +9 Sep 18
New York Harris 54% Trump 40% Harris +14 Sep 25
North Carolina Harris 48% Trump 49% Trump +1 Oct 08
North Dakota Harris 37% Trump 55% Trump +18 Apr 21
Ohio Harris 46% Trump 52% Trump +6 Oct 07
Oklahoma Harris 40% Trump 56% Trump +16 Aug 30
Oregon Harris 51% Trump 39% Harris +12 Apr 21
Pennsylvania Harris 49% Trump 48% Harris +1 Oct 10
Rhode Island Harris 54% Trump 39% Harris +15 Sep 19
South Carolina Harris 42% Trump 52% Trump +10 Sep 29
South Dakota Harris 31% Trump 50% Trump +19 May 13
Tennessee Harris 37% Trump 63% Trump +26 Aug 29
Texas Harris 45% Trump 51% Trump +6 Oct 07
Utah Harris 28% Trump 60% Trump +32 Aug 09
Vermont Harris 70% Trump 29% Harris +41 Aug 19
Virginia Harris 52% Trump 41% Harris +11 Oct 04
Washington Harris 53% Trump 32% Harris +21 Sep 06
West Virginia Harris 34% Trump 61% Trump +27 Aug 27
Wisconsin Harris 49% Trump 49% Tied Oct 08
Wyoming Harris 26% Trump 67% Trump +41 Apr 21