The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the three independents as Democrats):

23 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2024 and 28 seats are not up, for a total of 51 seats
11 Republican seats are up for reelection in 2024 and 38 seats are not up, for a total of 49 seats

For the time being, we are assuming all incumbents will run for reelection unless they specifically state that they won't.

The map strongly favors the Republicans. Half a dozen Democrats are potentially in danger and no Republicans are potentially in danger. Democrats have to play defense in Arizona, Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, among other places.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Independents and then Republicans following.

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Map of the 2024 Senate races. Mouse over a state for the candidates. Details of all the races are below the map.

Democratic-held seats

California

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Adam Schiff (D)	Steve Garvey (D)	Dianne Feinstein would have been 91 on Election Day, which is well past retirement age in most professions, but is middle-aged in a body where members sometimes linger past the century mark (see: Thurmond, Strom). Still, she decided to throw in the towel. This set off a feeding frenzy because open Senate seats in California are a once-in-a-generation event. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) couldn't wait and declared even before Feinstein announced her plans. A day later, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) told fellow lawmakers that she was in. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) also jumped in. Later Feinstein died, but that didn't affect the race. At first, everyone thought it would be Schiff vs. Porter in November, but Schiff played dirty. He ran ads telling the voters how Trumpy and conservative former baseball player Steve Garvey is. It worked. Republicans streamed to the polling places and Garvey came in second. Now it is Schiff vs. Garvey in November and Schiff will win in a landslide.

Connecticut

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chris Murphy (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Nothing to see here. Murphy is popular in his home state, is a leading Trump critic, and won his first Senate election by 11 points. The second time he won by 20 points. The Republicans will find some sacrificial lamb, but it won't matter who it is except to determine whether Murphy's margin is 10 points, 20 points, or 30 points.

Delaware

Challender	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lisa Rochester (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Given how many seats the Democrats need to defend in 2024, they are lucky that quite a few of them are safe. Delaware is in that category even though the retirement of Tom Carper has made it an open seat. The state's only representative, Lisa Blunt Rochester, will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee and also almost certainly the winner of the general election.

Hawaii

Incumbent	CHallenger	Notes Polls
Mazie Hirono (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Hawaii is the bluest state in the Union, and Hirono has solid approval ratings. The only thing she has to fear is a challenge from the left. That didn't materialize last time and probably won't this time. She's safe.

Maryland

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (D)	Larry Hogan (R)	Ben Cardin would be 87 at the end of a new term and saw what happened to Dianne Feinstein at the end of her life. He may not want to follow her down that road, so he will retire after this term. Maryland has boatloads of Democrats who would love his job. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) is the best known one, but he declined. There are plenty more. It will be a busy primary but not a nasty one because they all agree on overything except who should be the next senator from Maryland. The main candidates are Rep. David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks. The establishment is behind Alsobrooks. On the Republican side, former governor Larry Hogan announced a run. He has already won statewide and is much better known that either Trone or Alsobrooks. Maryland is a very blue state, but Hogan is the kind of Republican who could win (and has won) in Maryland. It is likely to be a very expensive and competitive race.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Elizabeth Warren (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Elizabeth Warren has a huge national profile and is an incumbent in a very blue state. The only Republican who could possibly cause her to sweat is former governor Charlie Baker. But he is not running, so it's all over but the shoutin'.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Elissa Slotkin (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Debbie Stabenow eked out a victory in her first Senate race, defeating incumbent Spencer Abraham (R) 49.5% to 48%. Since then, she's won by 16, 21, and 5 points, so she's clearly good at harnessing the power of incumbency. At 72, she could probably serve another two terms easily, but she decided to retire and won't run for reelection. The Democratic bench in Michigan is loaded. The governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and AG are all Democrats. So are seven members of the U.S. House and 20 members of the state Senate. So far, only one serious candidate has announced, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). Actor Hill Harper is also running, but Slotkin will dispatch him in the primary with ease. The Republicans have gotten former representative Mike Rogers to jump in. He is a Bushy Republican, not a Trumpy Republican. Former representative Peter Meijer is also Bushy, and very wealthy to boot. Wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler would like to buy the seat. Against Meijer, that would be a very expensive race. Former Detroit chief of police James Craig entered the GOP race a few months ago but then dropped out because he couldn't compete with the big guys.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Amy Klobuchar (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Amy Klobuchar is one of the most popular members of the Senate with an approval rating of 58%. She ran for president in 2020 and would probably have considered it again if Joe Biden had declined to run. Since he wants another term, she will go for another term as well and get it easily.

Montana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jon Tester (D)	Tim Sheehy (R)	Montana is a tough state to get a read on. On one hand, Donald Trump won there by 17 points in 2020. The other senator, Steve Daines, is a Republican as are the governor and both representatives. Nevertheless, Tester has been elected to the Senate three times, so he is a good fit for the state. This race will be his toughest ever, with the Republicans doing absolutely everything to unseat him. At first there was going to be a tough primary, with Rep. Matt Rosendale vs. businessman Tim Sheehy. Then Rosendale dropped out a week after jumping in. Somebody must have gotten to him. So almost certainly, Sheehy will be the Republican nominee. The state legislature tried to pass a new law to create a top-two primary, like California and Washington. The goal of this was get the Libertarian Party off the November ballot, in the hope hat libertarian voters then hold their noses and vote for the Republican. In the end it backfired and the Libertarian candidate will be on the November ballot. In a close election, 2-3% taken from the GOP could matter.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jacky Rosen (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Nevada is a bluish swing state. The voters just tossed out the Democratic governor and replaced him with a Republican. However, both senators are Democrats, three of the four House seats have Democrats sitting in them, and Democrats control both chambers of the state legislature. Rosen won her first try for the Senate in 2018 when she beat an incumbent (Dean Heller) by 5 points. She is certainly in a strong position in a presidential election year but no shoo-in, especially if former Nevada AG Adam Laxalt runs again, despite his loss in November to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). Laxalt doesn't seem to be interested in running again, and national Republicans want veteran Sam Brown to run. Several other Republicans are contemplating a run, but none are widely known.

New Jersey

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Andy Kim (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	New Jersey hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1972, so this seat is likely to remain in Democratic hands next year. However, Bob Menendez has been connected to a shady eye doctor named Dr. Salomon Melgen, who is now a convicted felon, and Menendez was indicted for taking bribes from him. The trial resulted in a hung jury and the government decided to drop the case, so Menendez got off. The Senate Ethics Committee admonished Menendez. This year he was indicted for taking bribes and being an unregistered foreign agent for Egypt. He knew he couldn't win so he decided not to run. Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) and Tammy Murphy, wife of the sitting governor, both jumped in. Then on March 24, Murphy dropped out. Kim will now get the Democratic nomination and easily be elected.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Martin Heinrich (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Martin Heinrich's net approval rating is +14 points and New Mexico is a blue state. In 2022, the Republicans ran a TV weatherman (Mark Ronchetti) against Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) and she won by 6 points. He could have run again and predicted sunny weather, but he didn't. However, the daughter of former senator Pete Domenici, Nella Domenici is running for the seat along with two unknowns. Domenici has never run for public office before and the only thing in her favor is that her father used to be a senator, albeit a senator who behaved rather poorly (he had an affair with another senator's daughter and got her pregnant).

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Some New Yorkers haven't forgotten how Gillibrand personally drove then-senator Al Franken from the Senate and haven't forgiven her for that, but New York is a blue state and she should be able to win—unless Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) challenges her in a primary. But it appears that AOC is waiting her turn, so Gillibrand is a lock for another term.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Sherrod Brown (D)	Bernie Moreno (R)	Ohio is becoming redder every year and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is going to have one tough race here. In 2022, Tim Ryan, who is a pretty good match for the state, was badly beaten by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), a wealthy author, who is a very bad match for the state. Brown is a liberal, but one with strong populist leanings. He laments trade agreements, for example. Despite Ohio's red hue, Brown has won five statewide elections (two for secretary of state and three for the U.S. Senate) and it is always hard to beat a popular incumbent. Three Republicans entered the primary: Secretary of State Frank LaRose, State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, and Bernie Moreno, a wealthy Mercedes-Benz dealer, Trump supported the very Trumpy Moreno and he won the primary. Moreno has enough to worry about being very Trumpy, which tends not to go over with independents. For proof, just ask Sen. Mehmet Oz (R-PA) or Sen. Herschel Walker (R-GA). But a week before the primary, a news item surfaced that an account was opened at Adult Friend Finder in Moreno's name looking for a man-to-man gay sex partner. No one disputes that the account existed, but Moreno claims someone else created it as a prank. Since control of the Senate could depend on this seat, the Democrats have to think carefully about how to play this right. Maybe get some outside group to run ads saying something "positive," like about how it is time for a gay senator. Would Moreno then run counterads showing him kissing the daylights out of his lovely wife? The dogs will get pain in their ears from all the whistles.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Bob Casey (D)	David McCormick (R)	Bob Casey is a moderate, which is a good match for this swing state. His net approval rating is +5, which is OK, but not great. On the other hand, he has won statewide election in Pennsylvania six times as auditor general, treasurer, and senator. Pennsylvania Republicans seem to have trouble putting up decent candidates. They have convinced wealthy businessman David McCormick, who lives in Connecticut, to run again. In 2022, he lost the primary to Mehmet Oz. McCormick could draw challengers though, but he is wealthy enough to bludgeon them with ads. In the 2022 primary against Oz, McCormick made statements saying that he opposed all abortions except to save the life of the mother. Pennsylvania voters will be treated to clips of those statements roughly every 60 seconds next fall. If 2024 is all about abortion, those clips could be fatal to McCormick.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)	Candidate Unknown (R)	Rhode Island is one of the bluest states in the country, with a grand total of zero Republicans holding office at the state and federal levels. Whitehouse won his last Senate race by 23 points. So, there's not much drama here. Whitehouse will get another term.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tim Kaine (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Tim Kaine has solid approval numbers with a net approval of +9 points. Yes, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) was elected governor in 2021, but that may be a fluke due to the Democrats running a somewhat sleazy candidate. Kaine has won statewide election in Virginia four times and unless the Republicans can pull a rabbit out of a hat and find a sterling candidate, Kaine will surely win a fifth time in 2024.

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Maria Cantwell (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Maria Cantwell is an outspoken opponent of Donald Trump, and has hewed to a Bernie Sanders-style party line, including a $15 minimum wage, aggressive protections for the environment, and healthcare for all. All of this makes her very popular in Washington, and an overwhelming favorite to be elected to a fifth term. The other Washington senator, Patty Murray (D-WA), won her 2022 contest by 18 points. Cantwell is a shoo-in for another term.

West Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (D)	Jim Justice (R)	West Virginia went for Donald Trump by a mind-boggling 40 points, which leaves Joe Manchin dead in the water, right? Probably. So he decided not to run for reelection, which means Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) will become Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV) in a bit over a year. The seat is irretrievably lost to the Democrats now. If he had run, he might have won, but it would have been a struggle against Justice, a coal billionaire and the richest man in West Virginia.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tammy Baldwin (D)	Eric Hovde (R)	Given Tammy Baldwin's middling approval rating (net +1 approval) and Wisconsin's position as the ultimate swing state, this one could be close. Baldwin is openly lesbian, but that doesn't seem to matter much to the voters. In any event, she is definitely running for a third term. Despite the state's even balance, she won her 2012 race by 5 points and her 2018 race by 10 points, so she is probably the favorite to win again. The Republicans finally have a candidate in wealthy venture capitalist Eric Hovde. There were a few other potential Republican candidates but they have now all dropped out, so Hovde will be the GOP nominee.

Independent-held seats

Arizona

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ruben Gallego (D)	Kari Lake (R)	This one is no longer complicated. Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat, frustrated Joe Biden on just about everything, then in 2022 became an independent. Nobody knows what she was up to. Democrats are pretty sure she holds regular strategy meetings with Satan, though they are not clear how much she charges the Devil for her assistance. On Jan. 23, 2023, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) announced a Senate run. He is the strong favorite to get the Democratic nomination. Kari Lake has entered the Republican primary and will almost certainly dispatch Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. On March 5, Sinema announced that she would not run for reelection setting up a race between a progressive Democrat, Gallego, and a super Trumpist, Lake. This will likely be the hottest Senate race this cycle, and not just due to the weather in Phoenix in August.

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Angus King (I)	Candidate unknown (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Angus King is very popular in Maine and, as an independent, can reasonably expect to get both Democratic and Republican votes. Of course, that means he can also reasonably expect to face both a Democratic and Republican challenger, all the way to the bitter end. The Democratic Party will probably nominate someone, because it's hard to keep some random Joe or Josephine from declaring, but not support that candidate at all. King is not as popular as that other New England independent, Bernie Sanders, but he has establishment support on both sides of the aisle, and is still a sure bet in November.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Bernie Sanders (I)	Candidate unknown (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Bernie Sanders is the single most popular senator in America, with a remarkable 63% approval rating. While Vermont's meteorolgical climate is very different from Hawaii's, its political climate is about the same. Bernie is as sure a shoo-in as they come.

Republican-held seats

Florida

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Rick Scott (R)	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)	Rick Scott was planning to run for president in 2024. He even drew up a platform. It included things like having Social Security and Medicare expire in 5 years unless Congress voted to keep them. That didn't go over real big, to put it mildly. That was the end of President Scott. Democrats will use that against him, but it probably won't be enough. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) won easily in 2022 against a strong challenger. Former representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is running for the Democratic nomination and will probably get it. She is a Latina and an immigrant from South America, not a bad demographic to be in when running for office in Florida. It would probably take a huge blue wave to unseat the Senator. That said, with Donald Trump on the GOP ticket, a blue wave is not impossible.

Indiana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) is running for governor, leaving an open seat here. The Republican primary will be a battle royale. Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), a strong Trumpist, is in and more are expected shortly. The Democrats could profit from the open seat if they can find a strong candidate. But their bench in Indiana is very thin, especially after Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg hightailed it to his husband's home state of Michigan.

Mississippi

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Roger Wicker (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	There was a time when Democrats could win elections in Mississippi, even if they nominated a yellow dog, but then the Civil Rights Movement happened. The last time the state sent a Democrat to the Senate was in 1982, when John C. Stennis was elected to the final term of a career that began in 1947. Roger Wicker is going for his fourth term in 2024. He'll get it.

Missouri

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Josh Hawley (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Josh Hawley has gone full-bore Trumper, no holds barred. Missouri used to be a swing state, but it has since become a red state. The Democrats ran a wealthy beer heiress (Trudy Busch Valentine) for the open seat in 2022 and lost badly against another Trumper, Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO). Unless the Democrats can find another, even better heiress in 2024, the same fate awaits them.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Deb Fischer (R)	Dan Osborn (I)	Fischer has moderate approval ratings (44% approval vs. 38% disapproval) and is a decent fundraiser. The Democrats' problem is that they need to find a strong opponent. There aren't a lot of them in Nebraska. Maybe what the Democrats should do is dig up William Jennings Bryan and run him. Plan B is to support the independent candidate, Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran and union leader. He is a deep underdog in such a red state.

Nebraska-special

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Pete Ricketts (R)	Preston Love (D)	Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) was appointed to the seat left behind by Ben Sasse when he left to become president of the University of Florida. Now he has to compete in a special election to hold the seat. He has already won election twice for governor, so that shouldn't be so hard. Nevertheless, somebody actually filed to run as a Democrat, Preston Love, who is Black. He is a community organizer and professor at the University of Nebraska Omaha. It is not clear why he is even bothering, though.

North Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Kevin Cramer (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	North Dakota is an extremely red state now. It used to be more prarie-populist. At recently as 2018 it had a Democratic senator, Heidi Heitkamp, but she lost her reelection bid in 2018. Unless the Democrats can somehow find another strong prarie populist, Cramer will get a second term. Maybe, while they've got their shovels out for William Jenning Bryan, they could also dig up Quentin Burdick, who won six elections as a Democrat before dying in office.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Marsha Blackburn (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Marsha Blackburn is not one of the smartest senators, but she is one of the Trumpiest. In Tennessee, that is good enough. Democrats do win occasionally in Tennessee. Phil Bredesen (D) served as governor from 2003 to 2011, but he lost to Blackburn in 2018. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Bredesen was their best hope and he wasn't good enough.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ted Cruz (R)	Colin Allred (D)	A lot of Texans don't like Ted Cruz because he thinks first of what is good for Ted Cruz and second what is good for Texas. Well, actually, what is good for Ted Cruz is probably also second and third, but what is good for Texas is a solid fourth. Or maybe fifth. Beto O'Rourke came within 2½ points of beating him in 2018, but Cruz ultimately won. Since then, Cruz probably hasn't become any more popular, in part because everyone knows he is just using the Senate as a stepping stone to run for president some day. Two Democrats, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) (who is Black), and Roland Gutierrez (who is Latino) announced their candidacies. Allred won the primary. Beating Cruz will be tougher, but in a blue wave, against an unpopular senator, he's got a small chance.

Utah

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Mitt Romney is quite popular in Utah. If he wanted another term, he could have it easily. But he doesn't want it and is not running for reelection. So Utah will have an open seat race in 2024. The race will probably be decided in the Republican primary, where Rep. John Curtis is running against Speaker of the Utah House, Brad Wilson, along with a window cleaning contractor, a supply chain manager, and a bunch of others. Apparently it is very easy to get on the ballot in Utah. In any event, either Curtis or Wilson will be the next senator from Utah, no matter who the Democrats nominate. They are likely to nominate an environmental activist,Caroline Gleich, who is running to elevate her cause, not to win.

Wyoming

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Barrasso (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	And finally, it's the biggest slam dunk of them all for the Republicans. Wyoming is ruby red, and Barasso has won his Senate elections by 55, 54, and 36 points, respectively. Barrasso could beat up a reporter the night before the election, and then get caught in bed with a live boy, a dead girl, and a goat, and he'd still win. The Democrats will have to hunt high and low to see if they can find a party member who lives in Wyoming and is willing to run. It could be tough. Is reader R.L.D. in Sundance interested?