Dem
47
GOP
53
It has been about 6 weeks since Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) said that he was going to quit to pursue some vague opportunity apparently related to Guyana, and that he was just waiting until the BBB became law.
Well, the BBB is now law, and so Green has made good on his threat/promise, and has quit the House. Once Green's formal letter of resignation reaches Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN), Lee will set the dates for the primary and the general. The Governor's office has tentatively announced October 7 as the date for the former, and December 2 as the date for the latter, but it's not official until a writ of election is filed.
The now-vacant (or soon-to-be-vacant) district, TN-07, is R+10. The Daily Kos, which looks at everything through blue-colored glasses, argues that if the Republican candidate underperforms Donald Trump as much as Republican candidates did in the two special elections in Florida, the Democrats could pick off the seat. We don't love that use (abuse?) of numbers, but we will say that special elections are always wonky, and Donald Trump has gotten pretty unpopular (see above). Our baseline for "How big an upset is really possible in these circumstances?" is Conor Lamb's win in PA-18 in March 2018, when anti-Trump sentiments allowed him to eke out a very narrow win (49.9% to 49.5%) over a weak opponent, in a district that was then... R+11.
In other words, an R+10 district is a pretty steep hill for a Democrat to climb, but it's not impossible. Thus far, six Republicans, including state Reps. Jody Barrett and Lee Reeves, former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services Matt Van Epps and Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, have jumped in, with more to follow. On the Democratic side, there are already three state Reps.—Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie and Bo Mitchell—who are in.
This race could provide the Democrats with a very interesting opportunity to test out their 2026 messaging, particularly as regards Jeffrey Epstein and also the BBB. For the record, 110,000 people in Tennessee are expected to lose their insurance; that works out to about 12,000 people per district. Of course, most of them won't actually lose their insurance until sometime after the special election; the outcome may turn on how effectively the Democratic nominee is able to convince voters of the looming issue.
Meanwhile, when the House returns on September 2, and begins to wrestle with the budget and with a potential "release the files" resolution, Mike Johnson will be working with a 219-212 majority, assuming no other members depart between now and then. That means he can afford up to 3 defections on votes. Or, to be more precise, he can afford Thomas Massie and two other defections. (Z)