Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, Donald Trump did an excellent job of making himself look very, very bad.
It starts with the fact that the latest unemployment figures were released yesterday. The numbers for July were mediocre—the current estimate is that the U.S. added just 73,000 jobs, instead of the 115,000 projected last month. Meanwhile, the two previous months' figures were revised sharply downward; May went from 139,000 jobs down to 19,000; June went from 147,000 to 14,000. That's a total drop, across the three months' worth of figures, of about 88%.
So, is this really possible? Can the numbers be off by THAT much? Yes, yes they can be. First of all, the first two reports for each month, one of which is a projection, and the other of which is a tentative total, are compiled based on a version of polling. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) talks to some employers, and uses that information to make educated guesses, based on past trends. Eventually, by the time of the third and final report for any given month, considerably more hard data has come in—not only reports from employers, but also things like tax information submitted to the IRS. Almost always, the initial number is at least a bit high, and sometimes it's WAY high. The past numbers, at least back to 1979, are compiled in chart form here, and you can find many other months where there were pretty big changes between the first report, and then the second and/or third reports. Look, for example, at June 2023, March 2021 and, in particular, March 2020.
It's not too hard to figure out why March 2020, in particular, was WAY off—that's when the pandemic hit. And so, the correction there, between the initial projection and the final report, was actually a staggering 752,000 jobs. That brings us to a second reason that yesterday's unusual (but again, not unheard of) drop in the numbers is entirely plausible. Remember, the initial figures are compiled based on past data. That, obviously, is not going to work out too well if the nation is in the middle of a month, or a quarter, or a year, that is far from "the usual." There's no way the March 2020 numbers could have been on target, because there had never been a month like March 2020 before. And there's never been a quarter like Summer 2025 before.
What we mean by that is that Trump has taken a hammer to BLS' work in two ways that present curveballs for the number crunchers. First, the DOGEys cut staffing everywhere, including BLS, meaning that the Bureau is having trouble getting all the data collected and crunched, particularly in a timely manner. Second, Trump's on-again, off-again trade wars have created enormous uncertainty for business owners. There's no question those business owners have, very rapidly, become much more reticent about making long-term commitments in terms of human capital (or, in fact, in terms of any capital costs).
Add it up and the numbers, while surprising, are nonetheless entirely believable. Unfortunately for BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, Trump is persuaded that he is the victim of countless conspiracies, particularly at the hands of the past two Democratic men who were elected president, and the two Democratic women who were not. And so, he pitched a fit and fired McEntarfer and several of her staffers. Here's the first (of several) rants he posted to his non-job-creating social media platform:
I was just informed that our Country's "Jobs Numbers" are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala's chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can't be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under "TRUMP" despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting "Kamala" elected — How did that work out? Jerome "Too Late" Powell should also be put "out to pasture." Thank you for your attention to this matter!
It's very odd. Why, for example, does he put his name, and that of Kamala Harris, in quotations? Is he telling us that he's been using a pseudonym for all these years? And does he even believe his accusation? Note that "No one can be that wrong?" is not a declaratory statement, it's a question.
Readers can probably infer for themselves why this was all kinds of stupid, but let's run down the three biggest ways, just in case. First, yet again, the Streisand Effect makes an appearance. Good or bad, nobody pays all that much attention to employment figures, except the type of people who read The Wall Street Journal and watch CNBC. But now, thanks to Trump's hissy-fit, the numbers, and his response, are front-page news. And quite a few writers, and quite a few readers, are going to reach one or more of these possible conclusions: (1) Trump is an idiot who doesn't understand how the BLS works, (2) Trump's policies are doing real harm to the economy and to the jobs market, or (3) Trump really cares about hiding (2), which leads to a "the coverup is worse than the crime" story.
Second, Trump is going to do everything possible to replace McEntarfer with a pliant lackey. And even if he can't find someone like that, the replacement is certainly going to know that their job is on the line if The Donald is displeased with their conclusions. Can anyone really believe anything positive that comes out of the BLS from today through roughly January of 2029? Even if the new commissioner is extremely competent and conscientious (not likely), and even if they are trying to do their best, the politicization of the job would still introduce issues. For example, what if the statisticians have to make a legitimate judgment call between a more optimistic assumption and a more pessimistic one? All other things being equal, the pressure will be there to choose the more optimistic.
And that brings us to the problems this creates for Trump. BLS doesn't just produce the employment numbers, it is also responsible for many other key economic indicators, like the inflation numbers. If those numbers are no longer reliable, it will make businesses even more cautious, thus helping to set the stage for a recession. At the same time, he has just forfeit any meaningful opportunity to brag about job growth (or any of these other government-produced indicators). If the BLS numbers show that, say, 500,000 jobs were added in November, and Trump gets on social media to crow about it, will anyone buy it? Maybe the base, but they are already on board. And maybe not even them, since they are getting an object lesson in his being untrustworthy/part of the deep state right now, and since they don't care so much about the numbers as whether they themselves have a job.
Finally, the third way in which this is stupid. Everyone knows that Trump's current economic obsession (besides tariffs) is interest rates. He very much wants Jerome Powell and the other fed governors, to implement a rate cut. And do you know one thing that would motivate them to do so? Poor job growth. But if they can't trust the numbers coming out of the BLS then they, like the business owners, are going to be far more cautious.
In short, when we first heard the news that Trump planned to can McEntarfer, our response was: "How could he be that goddamn stupid?" And now that we've had half a day to think it over, our response is: "How could he be that goddamn stupid?"
Of course, we always try our best to ascertain if there is some method to the madness. For example, it's at least possible that this is the latest attempt at a distraction from the Epstein scandal. Even if so, however, the price just isn't worth it, especially since Epsteinpot Dome is idling in neutral right now, due to the weekend. Similarly, it's possible that Trump wants to install Peter Navarro or some other propagandist to basically just make up numbers. But that just won't work, in part because the numbers will not line up with the numbers being produced by outsiders (like, say, Moody's), and it will be obvious who is making crap up. It also won't work because while the financial pros care about numbers and reports and how much frozen concentrated orange juice is expected to cost next month, voters care about the facts on the ground. As we note above, if someone can't get a job, they are going to be unhappy about unemployment, no matter what "data" the Trump administration puts out. Similarly, if people's grocery bills seem to be going up and up and up, they don't care if the government says inflation isn't actually all that bad. Heck, they did not care when Joe Biden was in office, and it ACTUALLY wasn't all that bad (particularly under the post-pandemic circumstances).
Thus ends our attempt to make this into a considered policy decision, or a sound political maneuver, even if one we disagree with. Trump does not play 3-D chess, but even if we go with an assessment built around the notion that he might, at least, be playing checkers? It still doesn't hold up very well. So, at best, this is an unforced error.
And now, a possible alternative explanation: It's (yet another) sign that Trump is losing emotional and mental control. Look again at the message above, the one he posted to social media. (Z) has written something like this before, and now will write it again: If he got a message like that, written in that way, from his department chair, he would immediately forward it to the dean with the note: "I'm worried that something is very wrong here." The tone, the rambling, the factual claims, the strange bits like the random quotations and the "Thank you for your attention to this matter!" at the end... none of this reads as the work of a mind that is healthy and is functioning properly (even if one allows for Trump being not the most literate of people). If Trump is indeed losing his marbles, then that is a frightening prospect, indeed. (Z)