Aug.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

L'Etat C'est Trump: Maybe Antifa Was on to Something

Just in case throwing a giant wrench into the economy wasn't enough, Donald Trump has spent much time this week, particularly in the latter part of the week, channeling his inner fascist. Here is a rundown of the biggest stories on this front:

1. The Census: The 1A headlines yesterday were primarily devoted to Trump's announcement that he is ordering a new census, and one that does not include undocumented immigrants. Here is the actual message he sent out:

   I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024. People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

   Because of the manner in which Trump made the announcement, there is much that is not clear. To start, is he trying to conduct a new census, on a quicker timeline than would normally be the case? Or is he merely trying to change the rules for the next regular census?
   
   Whatever the case may be, there are all kinds of potential problems here. If he's trying to squeeze in a new census, Congress would have to fund that (which, to be honest, they probably would bend over and agree to). However, even with the funding, the logistics of conducting a census on anything other than the normal cycle would be daunting. Planning for the regular census is already well underway, which pretty much tells you that the planning takes 5-6 years. So, trying to conduct a new census by, say, 2028 would be nearly impossible.
   
   And whether Trump's plan is to order a brand-new census, or just to change the rules for the next regularly scheduled census, he's going to run into some serious legal headwinds. First, his right to make such decisions would be challenged from many different quarters. More importantly, trying to exclude non-citizens from the count (or from apportionment) would be illegal (and is something he lost on, in court, the LAST time he tried to muck around with the census).
   
   There is only one thing that is crystal clear: If Trump and the Republicans were to successfully exclude undocumented immigrants, from either being counted or just from being represented, that would hurt several blue states, most notably California. (It would also hurt some red states, like Texas, but it would hurt more blue states). It is very improbable that California (or New York, or Illinois, or Washington, or Oregon, or New Jersey) would take that lying down. You could well end up in a situation where red states elect a House delegation whose size is dictated by the "Trump census" and where blue states elect a House delegation whose size is dictated by the "non-Trump census." When those delegations showed up in Washington, with multiple people elected for some of the same seats, then there would be a bona fide constitutional crisis.
   
   
2. Law Enforcement, Part I: This week, someone in D.C. beat up Edward Coristine, the 19-year-old computer programmer and former DOGEy known as "Big Balls." It's not clear that the attackers, who were attempting a carjacking, had any knowledge of Coristine's connection to the administration. He was with his "significant other" at the time of the attack; it's not known if the incident caused her to deflate. In any case, two 15-year-olds have already been arrested and charged.
   
   In response to this news, Trump freaked out, and went on several rants about how crime in Washington, DC, is out of control. That is TrumpSpeak for "D.C. sure does have a lot of Black people." In truth, crime in the District is at a 30-year low (or, at least, it was 3 weeks before Joe Biden left office). Anyhow, Trump is using the attack on "Big Balls" as an excuse to order federal law enforcement to begin patrolling D.C. He is also thinking about deploying the National Guard, a force he has clearly begun to think of as his own, personal brownshirts security apparatus.
   
   
3. Law Enforcement, Part II: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is about to be primaried by the plenty-fascist Texas AG Ken Paxton. So, the Senator has some motivation to burnish his own fascist credentials. And yesterday, he announced that the White House had agreed to send FBI agents to arrest the Texas lawmakers who are currently doing some quorum busting.
   
   It is, of course, perfectly legal to skip work in this country, and even to leave your home state while doing so. Consequently, it's hard to imagine what cause of action the FBI would have for arresting any of these folks. And do recall that an officer or agent can be held personally liable for an illegal arrest, under some circumstances. So, they might not be too eager to be a part of this plan. Meanwhile, Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) has already made clear that Illinois State Troopers have jurisdiction, and have the right to protect anyone within the borders of Illinois from any sort of external force.
   
   
4. Numerology: In the single most foreseeable development of the week, Trump has found a propagandist to announce the "real" numbers on job creation. It's Stephen Moore, who has a BA and an MA in economics, and has spent his entire career as a TV commentator and think tanker. He is best known as the chief economist for the Heritage Foundation.
   
   During a press conference held in the Oval Office, Moore declared that job creation is actually going great, and that any downturns are because the Biden-controlled BLS overcounted the number of jobs created during that administration by 1.5 million. Moore and Trump then had a spirited discussion about whether that was the result of incompetence or malfeasance. Moore also said that Trump's policies have already put almost $7,000 into the pockets of the average American family.
   
   The problem with fantasy numbers is... well, reality. We suspect that most families are going to notice that they are not, in fact, $7,000 richer (and that's before any impact of the trade war; see above). Meanwhile, it's pretty hard to monkey around with the numbers for unemployment claims, because actual money has to go out. And unemployment claims just hit their highest level since the height of the pandemic (specifically, November 2021), which is what you would expect if the population was growing, but not many new jobs were being created.
   
   
5. Seeds of Disunion: Let us keep in mind that when he ran for president each time, Donald Trump presented himself as the champion of blue-collar workers. And many blue-collar workers, particularly those who are white and male, supported him with their votes. One recalls, in particular, that nitwit Sean M. O'Brien, president of the Teamsters, who got up on stage and talked about what a friend to unions Trump is.
   
   In a shocking turn of events, the billionaire real estate developer, one famous for stiffing his workers, is not, in fact, a friend of unions. Yesterday, for example, the VA announced that, from this moment forward, it would no longer honor the contracts negotiated through collective bargaining. The reasons were: (1) talking to union leadership wastes valuable time, and (2) union representatives are occupying office space that can be better used for other purposes. Approximately 80% of VA employees lost their union-negotiated employment rights as a result of this announcement.
   
   The federal government, of course, can do a lot of things that private businesses cannot do—like unilaterally cancel an agreed-upon labor contract. What the government cannot do is stop affected employees from decamping for jobs in the private sector. On the whole, government jobs, including VA jobs, offer less in salary, but make up for that with greater job security and better benefits. If the latter stuff—the stuff that is worked out by the union negotiators—is gone, or is at risk of being gone, then they might as well head to the private sector, and the higher salary. Needless to say, if the VA has to get by with fewer and/or lower-quality staff, then the healthcare of veterans will suffer. As a reminder, Trump also presented himself as a champion of the military when he ran for president.
   
   We got an e-mail, very late in the evening, from reader J.A. in Manchester, NH, that conveys a sense of the anger this news has generated. We thought we would share it (and note, we are making the editorial decision to leave it uncensored):

   As many are now aware, the VA has unilaterally ended collective bargaining with most of its employees. The exceptions to this were police and firefighters. The e-mail from the Secretary had language in it stating they were no longer following the statute that compelled collective bargaining between the VA and its employees.
   
   While this in and of itself is bad enough, if the XO compelling this is allowed to stand, then make no mistake: the Administration will likely start dismantling the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 (actually, spoiler alert, they're already doing it).
   
   I'm really wondering why the fuck I ever wore a uniform for this country.
   
   And it's not like the "Attorney General" (who apparently slept through ethics class) is going to advise anyone different.
   
   Is there anyone left out there who doesn't see that this fucking guy is running the authoritarian/fascist program, line by line?

   In short—and note that we began writing this item well before that e-mail arrived—we're not the only ones who noticed that Trump has really been leaning into his fascist tendencies this week.
   
   
6. Intel Dump: We don't know if there is any way to prove this, but we suspect that Trump's relationship with much of Wall Street is shaped by the fact that while he always thought of himself as a very successful businessman, he was never treated as a member of "the club." In terms of New York, he was seen as a Queens guy, and the "cool kids" in NYC real estate are the Manhattan guys. More broadly, he was seen as someone who was crass, and shifty, and who benefited not from his amazing business skills, but from exploiting the silver spoon that was in his mouth when he was born.
   
   In any case, unlike most presidents (with Theodore Roosevelt and the other trustbusters being the main exception), Trump often takes potshots against successful businesses and their leaders. Earlier this week, Trump went after JPMorgan and Bank of America, and declared them to be meanies because they refused to accept more than $1 billion of his deposits. The banks aren't saying if that is true, nor explaining the basis for any decisions they have made. But, let's be honest: Would you even accept a $100 deposit from Trump? That's a check that has "bounce" written all over it. And $1 billion is rather more than $100.
   
   Yesterday, Trump's target was Intel Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan:

   The CEO of INTEL is highly CONFLICTED and must resign, immediately. There is no other solution to this problem. Thank you for your attention to this problem!

   Tan was born in Malaysia, immigrated to the United States, and is a U.S. citizen. However, he is ethnically Chinese, has a Chinese name, and has invested in some Chinese companies. That is enough, it would appear, to confirm that he is "CONFLICTED" and is probably a communist. Pretty odd for a commie to pursue a career as CEO of a major multinational corporation, but there it is. CEOs of the world, unite! Trump's attack on Intel, inasmuch as it could presage some sort of punitive action(s) against the company, was followed by a drop in stock value of about 3.1%. If Trump had increased the value, it would be called a "Trump Bump," so we guess this should be known as a "Trump Dump."
   
   We will note, by the way, that when TR attacked the actual J.P. Morgan, as opposed to the bank that now bears his name, it was not personal, and the Rough Rider's remarks were aimed squarely at business practices, and not at the business itself, or its founder. Unlike some native New Yorkers who became president, Roosevelt was very cognizant of the line between "class" and "crass."
   
   
7. Most Favored Nations: Not all businesses are in Trump's doghouse, though. Extremity Care LLC sells "bandages" made from discarded placentas and other substances. These bandages are marketed as "skin substitutes," and sell for $10,000 per square inch. They have become a hot item in the past couple of years, such that Medicare paid out over $10 billion for the product in 2024.
   
   There is one small problem, however: There is no scientific evidence that the "bandages" work any better than standard treatments. And so, in its waning days, the Biden Administration announced a rule that Medicare would no longer cover the treatment. Trump blasted the decision on Truth Social, and as soon as he took office, despite having pledged to "root out fraud and waste" in the Medicare system, he paused the rule from taking effect. The administration just extended the pause, to at least January 1 of next year.
   
   So, what could be driving Trump's decision-making here? Maybe it's his deep and abiding commitment to choice in medical treatments, even those treatments that are "alternative" or unproven. Or maybe he hates to see discarded placentas go to waste. Or, just maybe, it has something to do with the $5 million that Extremity Care LLC donated to Trump's super PAC, MAGA, Inc. Could be any of these things; they're all equally likely, right?

And now, let us review. There is a poster, first commissioned by the National Holocaust Museum, entitled "Early Warning Signs Of Fascism." That poster was based on an essay by author Laurence W. Britt, entitled "Fascism Anyone?" Both works list 14 indications of a fascist-inclined government. Just for funsies, let's see how many of the 14 items on the list are arguably checked just by the news listed above, all of which comes from just this week:

• Powerful and Continuing Nationalism: Yes; #1, #6
• Disdain for Human Rights: Yes; #1
• Identification of Enemies as a Unifying Cause: Yes; #1, #2, #3, #5, #6
• Supremacy of the Military: No
• Rampant Sexism: No
• Controlled Mass Media: No
• Obsession With National Security: Yes; #6
• Religion and Government Intertwined: No
• Corporate Power Protected: Yes; #7
• Labor Power Suppressed: Yes; #4, #5
• Disdain for Intellectuals & The Arts: Yes; #4
• Obsession With Crime & Punishment: Yes; #2
• Rampant Cronyism & Corruption: Yes; #3, #7
• Fraudulent Elections: Yes; #1, #2

We think you can make a pretty strong case that Trump checked off 10 of the 14 items on the list, or 71.4%, and that is just in one week. It's also not too difficult to come up with things he has done that check the other four boxes; they just didn't happen to take place this week. This exercise also suggests that Trump's very favorite play from the fascist playbook is "Identification of Enemies as a Unifying Cause." That certainly tracks.

We really, really, really don't like deploying extremely loaded terms like "fascist," especially when those terms tend to be used casually (and dubiously) for political and emotional effect. But sometimes, well, if the jackboot fits... (Z)