Dem
47
GOP
53
This is the item that was affected the most by the extra day. Late last night, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) posted a message to eX-Twitter in which she dropped the bombshell news that she is going to resign her seat on January 5 of next year.
The tweet contains images of a 4-page letter Greene wrote that explains her position. It is more than a bit rambling, and more than a bit unhinged, because it is Marge Greene, after all. However, the main points are as follows:
It is worth noting that Greene was hated by the left for 5 years, and never had to fear for her safety. She's been hated by MAGA for 2 weeks, and she's had to engage protection, and then end her political career. Incidentally, the comments on her post are running something like this: 33% "You can't go, because you're the bestest member of Congress ever," 33% "Good riddance!" and 33% "Ah. The Jews finally got to you, apparently?" Those who live by the antisemitic sword, die by the antisemitic sword.
Greene was always a True Believer, and she was, and is, someone driven FAR more by emotion than by intellect and reason. That's part of the reason that she and Trump got along so well for so long, because he's the same way. However, the problem for True Believers is that if they come to realize that one of their True Beliefs was false, then it throws the entire system of belief into question. It's the same reason that major churches don't like to course-correct on things like women priests or gay marriage or (in the past) evolution—if the Church was wrong about (X), what else might it have been wrong about?
In Greene's case, we can't be 100% sure what it was that wrecked her faith in MAGA, but we'd say we can be at least 90% sure: the Epstein stuff. She's railed against that, louder and longer, than anything else where she's on the opposite side of Trump. And it also features more prominently in her letter than anything else. We allow for the slight possibility that it might have been something else, like the ACA subsidies, that pushed her over the edge, but we doubt it.
What's next for Greene? She's not saying yet, of course. It seems unlikely that she would be effective as a lobbyist, given the whole "nutty as a fruitcake" thing. And we don't really see a place for her among the talking heads. All the news outlets, even the non-right-wing ones, want someone who is MAGA, not someone who once was MAGA, and who was cast out of paradise. The non-MAGA Republicans know this well, which is why someone like CNN's Scott Jennings went from lambasting Trump as an authoritarian to publishing a book last week entitled A Revolution of Common Sense: How Donald Trump Stormed Washington and Fought for Western Civilization. We have not examined the book, so we don't know if it has actual words, or just AI-generated images of Jennings, on his knees, bowing before Trump. Or maybe Jennings on his knees for other reasons.
It is at least possible that this is a chess move, and Greene is retrenching with an eye toward her future career. In 1854, there was a letter, called the Ostend Manifesto, which suggested the U.S. acquire Cuba from Spain so that Cuba could become another slave state. It caused a national scandal, and tainted every Democratic officeholder in the country. This laid the groundwork for James Buchanan, who was NOT in the country (he was serving as ambassador to the U.K.), to seize the Democratic presidential nomination and then the presidency. Similarly, part of what allowed Abraham Lincoln to claim the Republican nomination and then the presidency in 1860 was that he was not in office for the passage of the disastrous Kansas-Nebraska Act in 1854.
The point is that serious sh** went down in the 1850s, and two presidents in a row got that job because they managed to position themselves in such a way that none of the sh** ended up on them. Greene might suspect, or might know, that things are about to get ugly for Trump and/or MAGA, and she might want to avoid being a part of it, so she can waltz in later and be the right-wing populist who "picks up the pieces."
That said, there are serious objections to this thesis. Greene does not seem like a long-term thinker or, really, a strategic thinker at all. We also don't see what her constituency would be for a run for any office higher than Representative; she's a traitor to MAGA, and while Democrats are surely happy to see her act(s) of rebellion, they are certainly not going to vote for her. We think the likeliest possibility here is that Greene did what she always does, which is go with her gut, and that she will now fade away. Keep in mind some of the folks who were running the Greene shtick before Greene came along—a Sarah Palin, or a Michele Bachmann, or a Madison Cawthorn. Where are they these days?
And for the record, Greene's district—GA-14—is R+19, which means the odds of a flip are roughly equal to the odds that Trump decides his current approach to his hair is no longer working, and so shaves and goes Patrick Stewart for the rest of his days:
Yeah, not happening. Just the Dr. Evil memes alone would be enough to trigger a case of apoplexy. Anyhow, Greene will be replaced by a Republican as soon as the necessary elections can be held. However, until May or so, Mike Johnson's margin will be that much thinner.
And now we move on to the two people who were supposed to be the focus of this item, until MTG came along. Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-NY), who was the first Puerto Rican elected to Congress, and who was an outspoken member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus when some members of the Squad were still in diapers, will step down at the end of this, her 16th term.
The 72-year-old Velázquez is one of the few retiring members to take note of the grassroots' desire for a new generation of leaders, and to say openly that was the primary reason for her decision: "I love this work and I love my district, but I believe now is the right moment to step aside and allow a new generation of leaders to step forward." In an interview conducted shortly after her retirement announcement, Velázquez made particular reference to mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani of New York City, opining that the future of the Party and of the movement are in good hands.
Velázquez' district, NY-07, is D+25. Given that fact, not to mention the current political climate, it's an even longer shot to flip than Greene's is. Think the Trump bald thing PLUS the President also admits that he's been tying his tie wrong for the last 50 years, and that it's time to start tying it right, and to stop trying to hide that he's put on a few pounds over the years. Demographically, NY-07 is about 35% white and about 35% Latino, so one could imagine someone from either of those demographic groups succeeding the Representative. That said, she is likely to endorse, which will be a big advantage to that lucky person, and her endorsee is likely to be someone from the Puerto Rican community. So, if you had to bet right now, you'd have to bet that the next person to represent NY-07 in Congress will also be Puerto Rican.
There is also one other story for this item, which gets pushed even farther down the page because of MTG. There must be something in the water in FL-20. That district was represented for years by Alcee Hastings, who pursued the job because he was impeached and removed from the federal bench for taking bribes. During his time in Congress, he was the subject of several ethics investigations, most significantly the one focused on the question of why his deputy district director was drawing a larger salary than his chief of staff. That investigation ended when the House Ethics Committee decided it could not prove, beyond all doubt, that the salary discrepancy was related to the fact that Hastings was dating the deputy district director.
When Hastings died, he was replaced by Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL). And now, she's in hot water, too, having been indicted for allegedly stealing $5 million in federal disaster funds, and then using some of that money to fund her campaign for office.
The good news for the Representative is that she survived an initial attempt by her colleagues to remove her from office. Also good news for her is that the current Department of Justice, as you might have heard, has a habit of pursuing cases of dubious merit when political opponents are involved, and this COULD be another instance of that. The bad news is that Cherfilus-McCormick's colleagues are nonetheless going to mount an investigation, and may vote to remove her at a later date. Also bad news for her is that this investigation began before Trump took office, and involves both federal and state authorities.
So, if we had to guess, we would guess her goose is cooked, sooner or later. Or her turkey, if you prefer, given the nearness of the Thanksgiving holiday. When and if she does have to decamp for more iron-bar-y pastures, she'll leave behind a district that is D+22, majority-minority, and 49.1% Black. Barring new Florida maps (which is obviously a real possibility), she will thus be replaced by a Democrat, and probably a Democrat who is Black. And it will be up to that person to find some new and innovative ways to be corrupt, since their two predecessors will already have covered all the classics. Our suggestion: Crypto scam. (Z)