Hot House Races in 2008

Below is a list of House races likely to be top priority in 2008. Most of them meet one of these criteria:

1. The incumbent won by 2% or less in 2006.
2. The incumbent is in the other party's territory and did not win convincingly.

The first criterion is clear but the second one needs some explanation. Political analyst Charlie Cook has invented a political index called the Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which measures how a district leans. It is computed by averaging the Democratic vote minus the Republican vote for the last two presidential elections, and then subtracting from this the national average. A rating of D+3 means that the district voted 3% more Democratic than the country as a whole and a rating of R+4 means that it voted 4% more Republican than the country as a whole. The list below includes those districts in which a Democrat occupies a seat in a district with a Republican PVI or vice versa, except that any incumbent who won by 10% or more is considered safe and is not listed. For example, Nine-term Democratic congressman Chet Edwards (President Bush's own congressman) occupies the House seat in TX-17, which has a PVI of R+18, but Edwards won in 2006 by an 18% margin, so he is considered safe. On the other hand, Democrat Harry Mitchell won by only 5% in AZ-05, which is R+4, so he is considered at risk.

As time goes on, other races will be added when local events suggest a real horse race. For example, if the FBI begins investigating a representative in a swing district, that signals trouble for the incumbent, even if the PVI favors the incumbent. Open seats are almost always competitive except in very partisan districts.

AK-AL      PVI: R+14

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Don Young (R)	Ethan Berkowitz (D)	Normally an 18-term congressman who wants to be reelected just has to show up. But Don Young is going to have to fight to keep his job because he is the subject of a federal investigation concerning bribes and failure to report gifts. His likely Democratic opponent is Ethan Berkowitz, former minority leader in the Alaska House. A recent poll puts Berkowitz ahead of Young by 7%. If Anchorage mayor Mark Begich succumbs to Rep. Chris Van Hollen's charms and decides to run for the House there will be a primary. If Begich succumbs to Sen. Chuck Schumer's charms and runs for the Senate instead, Berkowitz has a clear shot.

AZ-01      PVI: R+2

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Congressman Rick Renzi has announced that he will retire in 2009. He is under investigation for various crimes and is severely damaged goods. His retirement means there will be a battle royal in this swing district. While Arizona tends to vote Republican in Presidential elections, the Democrats picked up two House seats here in 20rielle Giffords in AZ-08 and Harry Mitchell in AZ-05. Expect primary fights in both parties.

AZ-05      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Mitchell (D)	(R)	Harry Mitchell's victory over J.D. Hayworth was an unexpected upset in a somewhat Republican district. Expect a fight in 2008.

CA-04      PVI: R+11

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Doolittle (R)	Charlie Brown (D)	In 2006, Rep. John Doolittle defeated his Democratic opponent, Col. Charlie Brown, a retired Air Force pilot, by 49% to 46%. However, the ongoing FBI investigation of both Doolittle and his wife, both of whom have ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and his landing on the list of the 20 most corrupt members of Congress compiled by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, will ensure a big battle here in 2008. In April 2007, Doolittle (under pressure from the GOP leadership) gave up his seat on the House Committee for Distributing Pork (sometimes known as the Appropriations Committee), a job most representatives would kill for. Brown has announced he will run for the seat again and is already campaigning hard. Without his ability to pass out goodies, two FBI investigations to deal with and an experienced opponent who is already campaigning full time, Doolittle has his work cut out for him.

CA-11      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jerry McNerney (D)	(R)	McNerney is a newbie to politics and won because the incumbent, Richard Pombo, was the biggest recipient in Congress of money from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The district leans Republican and the GOP will fight hard to take it back in 2008. McNerney is an engineer with a special expertise in wind energy. He has a seat on the House subcomittee for energy and environment where he will certainly try to push the nation to use more renewable energy instead of importing it from the unstable Middle East.

CT-02      PVI: D+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joe Courtney (D)	(R)	Freshman Joe Courtney won his race by only 83 votes, but as a Democrat in a district with a PVI of D+8, he's probably safe.

CT-04      PVI: D+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Shays (R)	(D)	Christopher Shays is the only Republican representative in all of New England and he hung on by the skin of his teeth in 2006. A businessman, Jim Himes, who runs a company that builds low-cost housing is likely to be his opponent. Knocking off the last New England Republican congressman is going to be a prize the Democrats will strive mightily for. In no other region of the country is either party shut out. Even in the South the Democrats maintain a presence, holding the majorities in the Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina congressional delegations (as well as the governorships in all three states).

FL-13      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Vern Buchanan (R)	Christine Jennings (D)	The winner in 2006 isn't really known yet, let alone 2008. This is Katherine Harris district, where there were 18,000 undervotes. The new Congress will probably have to figure out what to do here, but they are taking their good time about it, so de facto, Buchanan effectively won. Since Jennings is wealthy, retired, and under the impression that she actually won, she has decided to run again in 2008.

FL-16      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Mahoney (D)	(R)	FL-16 is Mark "Pedophile" Foley's district. It leans Republican but Mahoney won it because Foley's name was still on the ballot. It won't be in 2008. On the other hand, Mahoney is a conservative Christian and may be able to hold it under his own steam.

GA-08      PVI: R+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Marshall (D)	(R)	Incumbent Jim Marshall (D) won his race by less than 2% in a district with a PVI of R+8, so he will definitely be targeted in 2008.

GA-12      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Barrow (D)	(R)	Incumbent John Barrow (D) won reelection by 864 votes, so the Republicans will go after him in 2008, even though the district has a PVI of D+2.

IL-08      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Melissa Bean (D)	(R)	Melissa Bean (D) staved off a challenge and was reelected by 5%, but the district has a PVI index of R+5, so she will have a fight on her hands next time as well.

IL-10      PVI: D+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Kirk (R)	(D)	Republican Mark Kirk was reelected by 6% although the district has a PVI rating of D+4, so he always to keep an eye over his shoulder to see who's chasing him. Marketing executive Dan Seals, who ran against Kirk in 2006 and 47% of the vote has said he will run again, but first he has to beat former Clinton aide Jay Footlik in the Democratic primary.

IL-11      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	This seat opened up due to the retirement of Rep. Jerry Weller (R). The district's PVI is R+1, which ensures a huge battle here.

IN-02      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joe Donnelly (D)	(R)	Joe Donnelly defeated Chris Chocola in this somewhat (R+4) Republican district in 2006. He will have to work hard to hold it, but he has a decent chance. He has a fairly conservative voting record in Congress, which will ease his task.

IN-08      PVI: R+9

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Brad Ellsworth (D)	(R)	Brad Ellsworth is a blue-dog Democrat, probably the most conservative of the three Democratic pickups in Indiana. He has a good chance of hanging on, but the Republicans will certainly mount a serious challenge given that the district has a PVI of R+9.

IN-09      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Baron Hill (D)	(R)	Another Democratic pickup, this one in a district with a PVI of R+7. On the other hand, Hill has been elected here before, so he will be tough to unseat.

KS-02      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Nancy Boyda (D)	(R)	This upset by Democrat Nancy Boyda (D) was completely under the radar. Nobody saw it coming in this R+7 district. But the Democratic wave was just too strong for incumbent Jim Ryun. But the Republicans will surely fight hard to get it back in 2008. Former incumbent Jim Ryun has, in fact, already said he wants a rematch. However he will first have to defeat state treasurer Lynn Jenkins in what will probably be a bitter primary fight.

MI-07      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Walberg (R)	Mark Schauer (D)	Tim Walberg is a vulnerable Republican freshman who beat an unknown Democratic opponent in 2006 50% to 46% despite having outspent her 25 to 1. He is high on the list of targets prepared by DCCC chairman Chris van Hollen (D-MD), who has $30 million in the bank to spend in 2008. Walberg's likely opponent is Mark Schauer, minority leader of the Michigan state Senate. Definitely a key race to watch.

MN-01      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Walz (D)	(R)	Tim Walz (D) pulled an upset victory here by 6% in a slightly (R+1) district. Given how evenly split the district is, his incumbency may keep him in power in 2008 though.

MN-03      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Erik Paulsen (R)	Terri Bonoff (D)	This seat opened up due to the surprise retirement of Rep. Jim Ramstad. Nobody saw this coming. Ramstad was popular in his district and not embroiled in any scandals. At 61, he could have been elected another 10 times. Since the district has a PVI of R+1 and Minnesota is trending blue, the Democrats will go all out to pick up this one. The most likely contenders are state senator Terri Bonoff (D) and state representative Erik Paulsen (R), but minor contenders may challenge them in the primaries.

NV-03      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jon Porter (R)	(R)	Jon Porter (R) withstood a challenge from Tessa Hafen, winning by about 4000 votes out of 200,000 cast in this relatively evenly split Clark County district (D+1). But the Democrats are likely to go after him seriously again in 2008.

NH-01      PVI: R+0

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Carol Shea-Porter (D)	Jeb Bradley (R)	Carol Shea-Porter (D) ran as an antiwar candidate against the Democratic party's choice and won the primary. Then she surprised absolutely everyone by winning the general election. This upset (by 6%) was probably the biggest surprise of the entire election . New Hampshire swung wildly into the Democratic column, with John Lynch (D) being relected governor by the widest margin in state history, the Democrats winning both House seats and both houses of the state legislature (for the first time since 1874). The district is fairly closely split, so the power of incumbency might be enough for Shea-Porter to hang on in 2008. Her newly-elected colleague in NH-02, Paul Hodes (D), represents a district that leans Democratic, so he will have a much easier time in 2008. The former GOP occupant of this seat, Jeb Bradley, has already said he wants his job back so it will be the same two contestants in 2008 as in was in 2006, only now with Shea-Porter having the advantage of incumbency.

NJ-03      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	The unexpected retirement of Jim Saxton (R) in this slightly Democratic district (PVI of D+3) will set off a huge battle as the Democrats smell blood here. This contest will probably be the biggest single political event in the state in 2008, since the Democrats will probably win the presidential and Senate races easily.

NJ-07      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	Linda Stender (D)	The unexpected retirement of Mike Ferguson (R) in this slightly Republican district (PVI of R+1) will set off a huge battle as the Democrats will go after this seat with hammer and tongs. The only NJ race that will overshadow it is the congressional race in NJ-03.

NM-01      PVI: D+2

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	This was an extraordinarily close race in a swing state. State Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) lost by only 1000 votes to incumbent Heather Wilson. Wilson is running for the Senate, so this is an open seat will will be very competitive.

NY-19      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Hall (D)	(R)	Challenger John Hall (D) wasn't expected to win in this Hudson Valley district, but a hugely successful grass roots effort put him over the top by about 2%. The district is R+1, so as an incumbent, he has a good chance of being reelected in 2008.

NY-20      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	(R)	Kirsten Gillibrand pulled of a surprise win in this slightly Republican part of the upper Hudson Valley. Her win was partly due to her opponent, John Sweeney, beating his wife and having her call 911. She won't be able to count on such good luck next time. But next time she will be the incumbent and the power of incumbency may be enough to offset the slight partisan edge (R+3) the Republicans have. She is raising money like there is no tomorrow and already has well over $2 million cash on hand. Two Republicans, former GOP party chief Sandy Treadwell and Mayor Bloomberg's aide Richard Wager have said they will run for the GOP nomination.

NY-24      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Arcuri (D)	(R)	This was an open seat in a neutral district. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot by producing an ad accusing Mike Arcuri of calling a sex line and charging it to the taxpayers. While the charge was technically true, it was perfectly clear that he misdialed the number, hung up within 10 seconds, and dialed the number he meant to, which was off by one digit. Arcuri refuted the charge by producing the phone bill showing the two numbers called a few seconds apart. It will be difficult for the Republicans to get this one back, but they will surely try.

NY-25      PVI: D+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Walsh (R)	Dan Maffei (D)	Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) beat back a challenge from novice Dan Maffei (D) by beating him by just under 4000 votes in this slightly (D+3) Democratic district around Syracuse. Maffei has announced he is running again in 2008. Now far more experienced, Maffei has a good chance in this district that Kerry carried in 2004, albeit by a 2% margin.

NY-26      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Reynolds (R)	Jon Powers (D)	Tom Reynolds has represented a conservative district in Western New York hard by the Canadian border for four terms. In 2006 he was chairman of the NRCC and saw the Democrats take over the House. He was also involved in the Foley-page scandal, having known about Rep. Foley's overly friendly behavior towards underage pages and not done much. He is being opposed by an Iraq war veteran, Jon Powers.

NY-29      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Randy Kuhl (R)	Eric Massa (D)	This race is a rerun of the 2006 one, which Kuhl won by 6000 votes out of 206,000 votes cast. It pits sophomore congressman Randy Kuhl against 24-year Navy veteran Eric Massa. The district has a definite Republican tilt to it, but Massa's surprisingly good showing in his first run for public office, his long military service, and DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen's bulging bank account will make this district a battleground.

NC-08      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Robin Hayes (R)	(D)	Incumbent Robin Hayes won this race by 329 votes against a totally unknown high school teacher, Larry Kissell. Imagine what will happen if the Democrats run a well-known local politician next time. On the other hand, Kissell did so well without any funding last time, with some help from the DCCC, he might be able to finish the job this time.

NC-11      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Heath Shuler (D)	(R)	This district is heavily Republican (R+7), but Heath Shuler is a famous football star, which is why he won in the first place. Add to this the power of incumbency, and it will be tough to dislodge anybody his size.

OH-01      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Chabot (R)	Steve Driehaus (D)	Congressman Steve Chabot was elected to a seventh term in 2006 53% to 47% against a relatively unknown challenger. This time he is likely to face the minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus. With the DCCC flush with funds and Chabot facing an experienced politician, this race in an evenly split district will draw a lot of attention.

OH-02      PVI: R+13

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jean Schmidt (R)	Victoria Wulsin (D)	Although this is one of the most Republican districts in Ohio (R+13), freshman Jean Schmidt defeated physician Victoria Wulsin by fewer than 3000 votes out of 225,000 votes cast. Despite the Republican tilt of the district, with Schmidt doing so badly, the Democrats are likely to go after her again in 2008. In fact, Wulsin has already indicated she intends to run again. Both Schmidt and Wulsin may possibly face primaries though.

OH-15      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	This seat is held by Deborah Pryce, a 9-term congresswoman who is #4 in the House leadership. In August 2007, she announced that is returning to Ohio to spend more time with her family. In her announcement, she did not mention anything about the fact that an unknown local county commissioner, Mary Jo Kilroy came within 3500 votes of unseating her in 2006 (out of over 200,000 votes cast). Kilroy is running again, but so is fellow county commissioner Paula Brooks, so there will be Democratic primary here. Kilroy is by far the better known candidate due to her almost successful 2006 run, so if she wins the primary, she will probably become the favorite in evenly split (R+1) district unless the Republicans can come up with someone as well known.

OH-16      PVI: R+4

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	This seat is held by Ralph Regula, who is retiring. It is not clear who the candidates will be, but it is clear that this will be a battleground district.

OH-18      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Zack Space (D)	(R)	OH-18 is a decidedly (R+6) Republican district. The seat was formerly occupied by Bob Ney, who resigned in disgrace, but not before managing to get his favorite candidate to replace him. She was tainted from the start. Next time the Republicans will look for a taint-free candidate. So far, no top-notch Republican has announced interest in taking on Space.

PA-04      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jason Altmire (D)	(R)	Jason Altmire is another surprise winner, as nobody was paying much attention to this district before the election despite is relatively even balance (R+3). In 2008, everyone will be paying attention to it. The person Altmire defeated, Melissa Hart, may try for a rematch.

PA-06      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Gerlach (R)	(D)	The incumbent, Jim Gerlach, won an extremely close contest with Lois Murphy, beating her by only 3001 votes. She may well be back next time.

PA-10      PVI: R+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Carney (D)	(R)	PA-10 is the district whose congressman, Don Sherwood, had a long-running affair with a young Peruvian immigrant 35 years his junior. Then he choked her and she called 911. End of Sherwood. But given the Republican tilt of the district (R+8), the Republicans will try hard to get it back. Since the Republican nomination in this district is very valuable, there will undoubtedly be a fight for it. Dan Meuser, a wealthy local businessman who could finance his own campaign without help from the cash-strapped NRCC, is mulling a run.

TX-22      PVI: R+15

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Nick Lampson (D)	(R)	This is Tom DeLay's district. Nick Lampson won, in part, because his opponent had to run a write-in campaign as a result of a court decision that did not allow DeLay to change his residence to Virginia and get off the ballot. Next time Lampson will face a serious challenge in this heavily Republican district.

TX-23      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ciro Rodriguez (D)	(R)	In a surprise upset, Ciro Rodriguez defeated incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) in a runoff election. The district is very heavily Hispanic and unless the Republicans can find a Hispanic who dislikes Robert Frost ("Good fences make good neighbors"), Rodriguez will probably hang on.

WA-08      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Reichert (R)	Darcy Burner (D)	Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) beat back a fierce challenge from Microsoft manager Darcy Burner, ultimately winning by 7300 votes out of 250,000 cast. The district, in the eastern Seattle suburbs, leans slightly Democratic (D+2), but that wasn't quite enough to overcome the power of incumbency. Burner has announced that she is going to challenge Reichert again in 2008 but she might face a primary challenge.

WI-08      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Kagen (D)	(R)	Steve Kagen is a physician who won a surprising victory in this moderately Republican district (R+4). He'll have to fight hard to hold onto it.