Former Virginia governor Mark Warner (D) announced today that he will run for the
Senate seat being vacated by retiring senator John Warner (R-VA). Warner earned a
fortune estimated at $200 million as a cell phone entrepreneur and then ran for
governor and won, leaving office with an approval rating of 80%.
On the Republican side, there will be a vicious ideological primary between
the highly conservative former governor Jim Gilmore and moderate Rep. Tom Davis.
Gilmore is well known statewide, but the demographics of the state have changed
considerably since he was elected governor in 1997, mostly due to the growth of
the (liberal) northern suburbs. Davis is more in tune with modern Virginia, but
is not known well statewide. Early polling shows Warner defeating Gilmore by
more than 20% but also defeating Davis, albeit by a smaller margin. But a hugely
expensive and bloody primary is the last thing the Republicans need before
taking on a popular multimillionaire former governor, but that is what is going
to happen. At this point, the odds heavily favor a Democratic pickup of this
open seat.
If Warner wins, once solidly Republican Virginia will have a Democratic governor
and two Democratic senators.
Democrats also have excellent chances to pick up the open Senate seat in
Colorado being vacated by retiring senator Wayne Allard (R-CO). If former
senator Bob Kerry (D) decides to run for the open seat being vacated by
Chuck Hagel (R-NE), there is a good chance that Democrats will pick up three
open seats.
Also in play are the following Senate seats:
Alaska where Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) is under criminal investigation
Maine where Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) will face Rep. Tom Allen and have to defend an unpopular war
Minnesota where Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) will face the winner of the Democratic primary
New Hampshire where Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) is running 20-30% behind former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the polls
New Mexico where Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) is deeply involved in the U.S. attorneys scandal
Oregon where Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) will face off with popular state house speaker Jeff Merkley (D)
and maybe a few other states.
Democrats face serious challenges in only
two states: Louisiana (where Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) may face state treasurer John
Kennedy who recently switched to the GOP) and South Dakota (where Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is
recovering from a stroke). If South Dakota governor Mike Rounds (R) declines to challenge
Johnson, Johnson will probably hold the seat, meaning that the only Democratic seat surely in play
is Landrieu's. Insiders are already talking about a Democratic pickup of 4-8 seats in
the Senate and if the wind is blowing the right way, 60 Democratic seats is imaginable.
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous
elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when
there is interesting news about the 2008 races.
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