Apr. 19 absentee ballot for overseas voters

General Election Polls: Who Does Better Against McCain State by State?

 
Senate map with polls
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News: Updated Apr. 19


Both beat McCain ≥ 5%
McCain beats both ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by ≥ 5%
Obama > Clinton by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by < 5%
Clinton > Obama by ≥ 5%
 
In brown states, Obama does better than Clinton against McCain. In pink states Clinton does better.
Sometimes this means: does not lose as badly
But white centers are statistical ties.

Democratic primaries Republican primaries Obama vs. McCain Clinton vs. McCain


News from the Votemaster

We have a whole batch of new general election polls today. Here they are:

State Clinton McCain Start End Pollster
AL 34 60 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
CA 47 42 Apr 16 Apr 16 Rasmussen
CA 53 40 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
IA 42 48 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
IN 42 53 Apr 14 Apr 16 IPFW U.
KS 36 57 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
KY 46 48 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
MA 56 41 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
MN 47 46 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
MO 47 46 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
NM 46 49 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
NY 49 37 Apr 14 Apr 15 Quinnipiac U.
NY 55 39 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
OH 53 42 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
OR 47 46 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
VA 39 55 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
WA 48 45 Apr 14 Apr 16 SurveyUSA
WI 46 46 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
     
State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
AL 32 64 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
CA 50 43 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
CA 50 43 Apr 16 Apr 16 Rasmussen
IA 49 42 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
IN 44 51 Apr 14 Apr 16 IPFW U.
KS 37 54 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
KY 29 63 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
MA 48 46 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
MN 49 43 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
MO 42 50 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
NM 44 50 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
NY 47 39 Apr 14 Apr 15 Quinnipiac U.
NY 52 43 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
OH 45 47 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
OR 51 42 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
VA 44 52 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA
WA 53 40 Apr 14 Apr 16 SurveyUSA
WI 49 44 Apr 11 Apr 13 SurveyUSA

With Obama as the nominee, the electoral college at the moment is Obama 260 to McCain 254 with 24 ties. With Hillary Clinton as the nominee, it is Clinton 289 to McCain 239 with 10 ties. Thus for the moment, her argument that she is more electable is true. Her strength is that she wins Florida and Ohio although he offsets this by winning Michigan and Iowa, which she loses. Also, he puts Colorado and North Carolina in play. If Obama were to win Colorado and McCain were to win North Carolina, they would each have 269 electoral votes and the new House would choose the President. For the maps and details, click on the Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain links above.

Stu Rothenberg has come out with new ratings on House races. However, some of these are definitely arguable.. For example, he rates Nancy Boyda's seat (KS-02) as a tossup, despite an extremely bitter Republican primary between former congressman Jim Ryun and state treasurer Lynn Jenkins. Defeating an incumbent is hard enough without the opposition being bitterly divided.

A bill that would have reimbursed states for getting rid of their untrustworthy electronic voting machines and would have replace them with good old paper ballots got a majority of votes in the House but failed to get the necessary 2/3 for fast track adoption. As a result, many electronic voting machines will be used in November, with all the well-known problems of these machines, such as the inability to do recounts. For more on this, click here.

Here are the new primary polls today.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Indiana IPFW U. Apr. 16 45% 50%      
Pennsylvania Rasmussen Apr. 17 47% 44%      
Pennsylvania Zogby Apr. 16 45% 44%      
Pennsylvania Zogby Apr. 17 47% 43%      

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.

Delegates

Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1504 1645 +141   1334   278  
NY Times 1475 1636 +161 12 1162 142 232 5
AP 1504 1645 +141 18 1334 257 278 14
CNN 1498 1644 +146 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1502 1644 +142 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1498 1638 +140 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1508 1652 +144 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.



-- The Votemaster
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