All eyes are on Superduper Tuesday now.
Except Republicans in Maine, who are caucusing today.
Nationally, John McCain is the front runner on the Republican
side. He has the enormous advantage that most of the
Republican primaries are winner-take-all events, meaning
that he can get 35% of the votes (i.e., 2/3 of the voters
against him) and still get the nomination. The extreme
right wing of the Republican party is going all out to
attack him this week. Rush Limbaugh is going wild. James
Dobson reiterated his stand that he could never vote for
McCain. If it becomes McCain vs. Clinton or McCain vs. Obama,
crow will be served for dinner.
On the Democratic side, it is getting closer.
A new Gallup poll shows Obama within 4% of
Clinton (43% to 39%), with a fair number still undecided.
In California, the biggest trove of delegates to be chosen Tuesday,
Obama is within 3% (43% to 40%) according to the latest Rasmussen poll.
All the Democratic primaries are proportional, so it is possible
(even likely) that Clinton wins more delegates Tuesday, but not that
many more, causing the race to go on well into the Spring. This is
a nightmare scenario for the Democrats: McCain the uncontested nominee
raising money like crazy while Clinton and Obama are spitting at each other
for months. History shows that the first party to select their nominee
usually wins the general election, but this year is not typical.
Here are today's new polls:
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Alabama
Capital Survey
Jan. 30
35%
40%
34%
15%
27%
3%
Georgia
Insider Advantage
Jan. 30
36%
52%
35%
34%
24%
5%
Illinois
Rasmussen
Jan. 29
34%
26%
16%
10%
Massachusetts
SurveyUSA
Jan. 30
57%
33%
34%
57%
3%
3%
Minnesota
U. of Minnesota
Jan. 27
40%
33%
41%
17%
22%
5%
New Jersey
Rasmussen
Jan. 30
49%
37%
43%
29%
7%
6%
Oregon
Riley Research
Jan. 29
36%
28%
30%
21%
16%
3%
Tennessee
Insider Advantage
Jan. 30
59%
26%
33%
18%
25%
9%
Here is a summary of the January polls for the states voting on
Tuesday. The most recent poll is always used. If other polls were
taken with in a week of it, all of them are averaged together.
Democrats
State
Clinton
Obama
Date
Pollster
Alabama
35
40
Jan 30
Capital Survey
Arizona
41
26
Jan 24
Rocky+Arizo
California
47
36
Jan 29
Four polls
Colorado
32
34
Jan 23
Mason-Dixon
Connecticut
40
40
Jan 27
Rasmussen
Georgia
36
52
Jan 30
Insider Advantage
Massachusetts
50
35
Jan 30
Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota
40
33
Jan 27
U. of Minnesota
Missouri
44
28
Jan 24
Rasmu+Resea
New Jersey
49
37
Jan 30
Rasmussen
New York
51
26
Jan 26
Gallu+Zogby+Quinn
Oklahoma
44
19
Jan 27
SurveyUSA
Tennessee
59
26
Jan 30
Insider Advantage
Republicans
State
McCain
Romney
Date
Pollster
Alabama
34
15
Jan 30
Capital Survey
Arizona
41
21
Jan 24
Rocky+Arizo
California
34
25
Jan 29
Five polls
Colorado
24
43
Jan 23
Mason-Dixon
Connecticut
39
11
Jan 17
U. of Connecticut
Georgia
35
34
Jan 30
Insider Advantage
Illinois
34
26
Jan 29
Rasmussen
Massachusetts
34
57
Jan 30
SurveyUSA
Minnesota
41
17
Jan 27
U. of Minnesota
Missouri
29
20
Jan 24
Rasmu+Resea
New Jersey
43
29
Jan 30
Rasmussen
New York
32
12
Jan 26
Gallu+Zogby+Quinn
Oklahoma
37
19
Jan 27
SurveyUSA
Tennessee
33
18
Jan 30
Insider Advantage
The money numbers are starting to dribble in.
The DCCC has a net worth of $34 million to the NRCC's net worth of $3 million.
On the Senate side, the DSCC has $29 million vs. the NRSC's $12 million.
We might have more numbers tomorrow.
CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count:
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