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News: Updated Feb. 01


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News from the Votemaster

All eyes are on Superduper Tuesday now. Except Republicans in Maine, who are caucusing today. Nationally, John McCain is the front runner on the Republican side. He has the enormous advantage that most of the Republican primaries are winner-take-all events, meaning that he can get 35% of the votes (i.e., 2/3 of the voters against him) and still get the nomination. The extreme right wing of the Republican party is going all out to attack him this week. Rush Limbaugh is going wild. James Dobson reiterated his stand that he could never vote for McCain. If it becomes McCain vs. Clinton or McCain vs. Obama, crow will be served for dinner.

On the Democratic side, it is getting closer. A new Gallup poll shows Obama within 4% of Clinton (43% to 39%), with a fair number still undecided. In California, the biggest trove of delegates to be chosen Tuesday, Obama is within 3% (43% to 40%) according to the latest Rasmussen poll. All the Democratic primaries are proportional, so it is possible (even likely) that Clinton wins more delegates Tuesday, but not that many more, causing the race to go on well into the Spring. This is a nightmare scenario for the Democrats: McCain the uncontested nominee raising money like crazy while Clinton and Obama are spitting at each other for months. History shows that the first party to select their nominee usually wins the general election, but this year is not typical.

Here are today's new polls:

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 30 35% 40%   34% 15% 27% 3%
Georgia Insider Advantage Jan. 30 36% 52%   35% 34% 24% 5%
Illinois Rasmussen Jan. 29   34% 26% 16% 10%
Massachusetts SurveyUSA Jan. 30 57% 33%   34% 57% 3% 3%
Minnesota U. of Minnesota Jan. 27 40% 33%   41% 17% 22% 5%
New Jersey Rasmussen Jan. 30 49% 37%   43% 29% 7% 6%
Oregon Riley Research Jan. 29 36% 28%   30% 21% 16% 3%
Tennessee Insider Advantage Jan. 30 59% 26%   33% 18% 25% 9%

Here is a summary of the January polls for the states voting on Tuesday. The most recent poll is always used. If other polls were taken with in a week of it, all of them are averaged together.

Democrats

State Clinton Obama Date Pollster
Alabama 35 40 Jan 30 Capital Survey
Arizona 41 26 Jan 24 Rocky+Arizo
California 47 36 Jan 29 Four polls
Colorado 32 34 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 40 40 Jan 27 Rasmussen
Georgia 36 52 Jan 30 Insider Advantage
Massachusetts 50 35 Jan 30 Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota 40 33 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 44 28 Jan 24 Rasmu+Resea
New Jersey 49 37 Jan 30 Rasmussen
New York 51 26 Jan 26 Gallu+Zogby+Quinn
Oklahoma 44 19 Jan 27 SurveyUSA
Tennessee 59 26 Jan 30 Insider Advantage


Republicans

State McCain Romney Date Pollster
Alabama 34 15 Jan 30 Capital Survey
Arizona 41 21 Jan 24 Rocky+Arizo
California 34 25 Jan 29 Five polls
Colorado 24 43 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 39 11 Jan 17 U. of Connecticut
Georgia 35 34 Jan 30 Insider Advantage
Illinois 34 26 Jan 29 Rasmussen
Massachusetts 34 57 Jan 30 SurveyUSA
Minnesota 41 17 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 29 20 Jan 24 Rasmu+Resea
New Jersey 43 29 Jan 30 Rasmussen
New York 32 12 Jan 26 Gallu+Zogby+Quinn
Oklahoma 37 19 Jan 27 SurveyUSA
Tennessee 33 18 Jan 30 Insider Advantage

The money numbers are starting to dribble in. The DCCC has a net worth of $34 million to the NRCC's net worth of $3 million. On the Senate side, the DSCC has $29 million vs. the NRSC's $12 million. We might have more numbers tomorrow.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:

Delegates

Clinton 230 Obama 152     Needed: 2025
McCain 97 Romney 74 Huckabee 29 Paul 6 Needed: 1191


-- The Votemaster
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