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News: Updated Mar. 11

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News from the Votemaster

If you are looking for the "Experience vs. Greatness" story, it is now happily living on the Data galore page, which is listed under the map every day.

Mississippi has a primary today. The odds favor Barack Obama as the state has many black Democrats.

The Democrats have a Senate candidate in Minnesota: comedian Al Franken. His primary opponent dropped out. Could a comedian be elected senator in a state that already elected a professional wrestler as governor? It could. He has been campaigning like crazy and raising tons of money, as well as cracking jokes about his opponent, Sen. Norm Coleman like: "I'm the only New York Jew in this race who actually grew up in Minnesota." (Coleman grew up in Brooklyn.)

Quite a few people have asked what would have happened if the Democrats had used a statewide winner-take-all rule. In other words, suppose the statewide winner got all the delegates. Where would be be now? Here is the answer. The calculation assumes Clinton won Nevada and Texas. She got more votes in Nevada but fewer delegates (by 1). She also won the popular vote in the Texas primary. The caucus results are still not in but preliminary tallies suggest Obama may end up with more delegates. If you want to award Texas to Obama, the arithmetic is pretty simple.

State Delegates Winner Clinton Obama
Alabama 60 Obama   60
Alaska 18 Obama   18
American Samoa 9 Clinton 9  
Arizona 67 Clinton 67  
Arkansas 47 Clinton 47  
California 440 Clinton 440  
Colorado 71 Obama   71
Connecticut 60 Obama   60
D.C. 38 Obama   38
Delaware 23 Obama   23
Democrats Abroad 11 Obama   11
Florida 0      
Georgia 103 Obama   103
Hawaii 29 Obama   29
Idaho 23 Obama   23
Illinois 185 Obama   185
Iowa 57 Obama   57
Kansas 41 Obama   41
Louisiana 66 Obama   66
Maine 34 Obama   34
Maryland 99 Obama   99
Massachusetts 121 Clinton 121  
Michigan 0      
Minnesota 88 Obama   88
Missouri 88 Obama   88
Nebraska 31 Obama   31
Nevada 33 Clinton 33  
New Hampshire 30 Clinton 30  
New Jersey 127 Clinton 127  
New Mexico 38 Clinton 38  
New York 281 Clinton 281  
North Dakota 21 Obama   21
Ohio 161 Clinton 161  
Oklahoma 47 Clinton 47  
Rhode Island 32 Clinton 32  
South Carolina 54 Obama   54
Tennessee 85 Clinton 85  
Texas 228 Clinton 228  
Utah 29 Obama   29
Vermont 23 Obama   23
Virgin Islands 9 Obama   9
Virginia 101 Obama   101
Washington 97 Obama   97
Wisconsin 92 Obama   92
Wyoming 18 Obama   18
Total     1746 1569

Hillary Clinton would have 1746 delegates to Barack Obama's 1569. The reason the Democrats don't have a winner-take-all rule is because they are Democrats. They don't consider it fair that the birthday boy or girl gets to eat the whole cake. You have to share it with your friends. Republicans have a different world model. You either win or you lose. If you win you get to take all the marbles home. If you lose, you get no marbles. Try harder next time. (Well, mostly, some GOP primaries are winner-take-all by congressional district or something else.) If the Democrats had employed winner take all but for only 80% of the delegates leaving 20% for the PLEOs, the score now would be Clinton 1397, Obama 1255. If you want the data in .csv format, here it is. Please DON'T ask what would happen if the Republicans did proportional representation by state senate district everywhere. If you want the popular vote data, it is on the NY Times Website.

Alan Abramowitz, a professor of politican science at Emory University has an interesting posting over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Abramowitz analyzed the 2006 exit polls and concluded that the defection of moderate to liberal Republicans cost the GOP their Senate and House majorities. These were voters who normally vote Republican but who were fed up with George Bush. Another ominous sign is the large number of Republicans who voted in the Democratic primaries this year (25% in Wisconsin), largely for Barack Obama and the tiny number of Democrats (2-3%) who voted in the Republican primaries. The message here is that Obama will pull Republicans away from McCain but McCain won't pull Democrats away from Obama. With Clinton, party loyalty becomes stronger.

Here are today's new polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Mississippi ARG Mar. 10 38% 54%      
Mississippi Insider Advantage Mar. 9 37% 54%      
Pennsylvania ARG Mar. 8 52% 41%      

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1473 1579 +106   1289   278  
NY Times 1399 1508 +109 12 1110 142 225 5
AP 1468 1578 +110 26 1289 257 278 14
CNN 1438 1553 +115 26 1289 255 267 16
ABC 1467 1578 +111 32 1231 273 272 14
CBS 1457 1574 +110 26 1205 149 231 10
MSNBC 1230 1379 +149 +26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster