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News: Updated Mar. 12

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News from the Votemaster

Barack Obama won a decisive victory over Hillary Clinton in the Mississippi primary yesterday, 61% to 37%, pretty much as predicted. He picked up 17 delegates to Clinton's 11. This result follows the now-established pattern of the other states of the deep South (Florida being a cross between a Southern state and the sixth borough of New York City). About half the primary voters were black and they went for Obama 90% to 10%. Clinton won the counties in the northeastern part of the state around Tupelo (Elvisland) and in the southeast. Obama swept the rest. The exit poll data hasn't been published yet.

With the new wins in Wyoming and Mississippi, Obama has basically erased the net gains Clinton made in Ohio and Texas. CNN has called the caucus finally. All in all, Obama got 5 more delegates out of Texas than Clinton.

John McCain beat Mike Huckabee handily (79% to 12%) in the Republican primary. This is a good sign for him as Mississippi has many evangelicals and they are apparently getting used to the idea of McCain as the Republican nominee.

Here are today's new polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
North Carolina SurveyUSA Mar. 10 41% 49%      
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Mar. 10 55% 36%      
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Polling Mar. 10 45% 31%      

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1484 1596 +112   1331   278  
NY Times 1403 1511 +108 12 1110 142 225 5
AP 1484 1596 +112 26 1331 257 278 14
CNN 1478 1608 +130 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1484 1600 +116 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1471 1591 +120 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1242 1394 +152 +26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster