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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Republican primaries and caucuses

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News: Updated Apr. 15

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
Clinton: won popular vote
Obama: most delegates
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News from the Votemaster

As discussed in the March 31 posting here the Pennsylvania primary is by congressional district, of which there are 19. Here is the map again.


Today, CQ Politics looks at the details of each CD and how the delegates might be split. Here is a summary of their analysis.

CD Location Clinton Obama
1 Philly 3 4
2 West Philly 2 7
3 NW PA (Erie) 3 2
4 West (Pittsburgh suburbs) 3 2
5 North (State College) 2 2
6 Southeast 3 3
7 Philly suburbs 4 3
8 Northern Philly suburbs 4 3
9 Altoona area 2 1
10 Northeast 2 2
11 Scranton area 3 2
12 Johnstown area 3 2
13 East 4 3
14 Pittsburgh 3 4
15 Allentown area 3 2
16 Southeast 2 2
17 Harrisburg area 2 2
18 Pittsburg suburbs 3 2
19 Gettysburg area 2 2
  Total 53 50

Thus it could happen that Hillary Clinton gets 55% of the vote and net a total of three pledged delegates. Fortunately for her, there are also 35 at-large delegates that split in proportion to the popular vote and also 20 PLEOs (mayors and local officials who have to campaign for a delegate slot). If she gets 55% of the popular vote, she would get a net of three at-large delegates and a net of two PLEOs. Thus if CQ Politics has it right on the districts and also if Clinton gets 55% of the popular vote, she will probably gain a net of under 10 delegates from the primary election and Obama will probably win most of that back in North Carolina two weeks later. After that, there are no big states left so the delegate totals will not change much until the superdelegates go public.

Clinton is running a new ad directly attacking Obama for his comments on Pennsylvanians. In her earlier "3 A.M." ad she implied she would be a better leader in a moment of crisis. The President is commander-in-chief and alluding to your strengths and your opponent's weaknesses for that role is clearly legitimate. The message was: "I will be a better commander-in-chief." However, the new ad is a direct, frontal, personal, bet-the-farm, attack on Obama. It is an attempt to keep this issue going as long as possible. The fight is really about which word do you use to describe middle-aged white blue-collar workers who lost their job in the steel industry and are never likely to get as good a job again. Are they "bitter"? "Angry"? "Despondent?" Why does the specific word even matter? Why aren't the candidates falling all over themselves explaining how they are going to fix the situation? Obama, for example, has emphasized rebuilding crumbling infrastructure. Clinton has talked a lot about her health care plan and Pittsburgh has a booming health care industry. She could talk about how covering more people would create jobs in the health care sector. This ad will be very controversial. Check out the ad here.

The downside of this kind of politics, though, is that it makes all politicians be afraid of saying anything spontaneous any time to any group. It is far safer to read from a very carefully worded vague script that says nothing and offends no one.

We have some new polls today. Here they are.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Indiana SurveyUSA Apr. 13 55% 39%      
Pennsylvania ARG Apr. 13 57% 37%      
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Polling Apr. 10 40% 37%      

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1503 1639 +136   1334   278  
NY Times 1475 1632 +157 12 1162 142 232 5
AP 1503 1639 +136 18 1334 257 278 14
CNN 1488 1631 +143 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1499 1639 +140 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1495 1634 +139 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1511 1647 +136 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com