Wyoming Caucus March 8 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (38%)
Wisconsin Primary on February 19 1. Obama (58%) 2. Clinton (41%)
West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27%
West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27%
Washington Caucus on February 9 1. Obama (68%)
Virginia Primary on February 12 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (35%)
Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%)
Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%)
Utah Primary on February 5 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (39%)
Texas Hybrid on March 4 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (47%) Obama won caucuses &most delegates
Tennessee Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (41%)
South Dakota Primary on June 3 (total of 23 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 03: Clinton 34% Obama 46%
South Carolina Primary on January 26 1. Barack Obama (55%) 2. Hillary Clinton (27%) 3. John Edwards (18%)
Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%)
Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%)
Pennsylvania Primary on April 22 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (45%)
Oregon Primary on May 20 (total of 65 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 06: Clinton 42% Obama 52% Jan 29: Clinton 36% Obama 28% Aug 15: Clinton 26% Obama 18%
Oklahoma Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (31%)
Ohio Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (44%)
North Dakota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%)
North Carolina Primary on May 6 (total of 134 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 28: Clinton 44% Obama 49% Apr 28: Clinton 37% Obama 51% Apr 27: Clinton 42% Obama 52%
New York Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (57%) 2. Obama (40%)
New Mexico Caucus on February 5 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (49%)
New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%)
New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%)
New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%)
New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%)
Nevada Caucus on January 19 1. Hillary Clinton (51%) 2. Barack Obama (46%) 3. John Edwards (4%)
Nebraska Caucus on February 9 1. Obama 68% Clinton (32%)
Montana Primary on June 3 (total of 25 delegates) Most recent polls: Dec 19: Clinton 29% Obama 17%
Missouri Primary on February 5 1. Obama (49%) 2. Clinton (48%)
Mississippi Primary on March 11 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%)
Minnesota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%)
Michigan Primary on January 15 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (55%) 2. Uncommitted (40%) 3. Dennis Kucinich (4%)
Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%)
Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%)
Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%)
Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%)
Maine Caucus on February 10 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (40%)
Louisiana Primary on February 9 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (36%)
Kentucky Primary on May 20 (total of 60 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 28: Clinton 63% Obama 27% Apr 14: Clinton 62% Obama 26% Mar 30: Clinton 58% Obama 29%
Kansas Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (26%)
Iowa Caucus on January 3 1. Barack Obama (38%) 2. John Edwards (30%) 3. Hillary Clinton (29%)
Indiana Primary on May 6 (total of 85 delegates) Most recent polls: Apr 27: Clinton 52% Obama 43% Apr 24: Clinton 47% Obama 48% Apr 24: Clinton 45% Obama 47%
Illinois Primary on February 5 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (33%)
Idaho Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (80%) 2. Clinton (17%)
Hawaii Caucus on February 19 1. Obama (76%) 2. Clinton (24%)
Georgia Primary on February 5 1. Obama (66%) 2. Clinton (31%)
Florida Primary on January 29 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (50%) 2. Barack Obama (33%) 3. John Edwards (14%)
Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%)
Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%)
D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%)
D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%)
Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%)
Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%)
Colorado Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%)
California Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (52%) 2. Obama (43%)
Arkansas Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (69%) 2. Obama (27%)
Arizona Primary on February 5 Clinton (51%) Obama (42%)
Alaska Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (25%)
Alabama Primary on February 5 1. Obama (56%) 2. Clinton (42%)
Four Michigan Democrats have launched a new
proposal
for seating the Michigan delegates.
One of them is Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), who is almost single-handedly responsible for the problem in the first place
since it was he who championed the idea of violating DNC rules and having Michigan vote on January 15. The
group says Clinton wants to accept the election results, which favor her 73 to 55 and Obama wants to split it
64 to 64, so let's compromise at 69 for Clinton and 59 for Obama. It is not clear if the DNC will buy this though.
Many DNC members are very angry with Michigan for knowingly violating party rules.
Conservative NY Times columnist David Brooks had a
column
yesterday about how segmented America has become.
In the 1950s, 80% of television viewers, rich and poor alike, watched Milton Berle on Tuesday nights.
Millions of others read general-interest magazines like Look and Life. A rich man's
son and a poor man's son might play on the same basketball team. That's all gone now. Everything is
highly segmented with people looking for TV shows, magazines, sports teams, (and certainly blogs) for people
like them. So with this election. Barack Obama poured millions into advertising in Pennsylvania, but the
upscale college educated voters went for him and the downscale blue-collar women went for Hillary Clinton, the
same as they would have had he not advertised. John Edwards said we have two Americas. Brooks cites Stuart
Rothenberg's claim that we have two Democratic Parties, and each one has its own candidate and is not
likely to budge until hammered into submission.
We have four new primary polls today. A
Howey-Guage
poll shows Indiana to be a statistical
tie, different from yesterday's SurveyUSA poll putting Clinton ahead by 9%. The difference
in these polls is often how hard the pollster pushes the undecideds to make a choice.
Also noteworthy is the fact Democrats are split evenly 47% to 47% so three other groups may
ultimately determine the winner here and possibly the nominee. First, independents are allowed
to vote in the Democratic primary, and in previous states they have gone strongly for Obama.
Second, there what are called "Obamacans," Republicans deeply disturbed by what the party of
Eisenhower, Goldwater, and Reagan has become and think a big loss in November may help the party
get back to its fundamental principles. Finally, we have the Limbacans, Republicans who support
McCain and at the incessant urging of Rush Limbaugh are going to vote for Hillary Clinton because
they perceive her to be the weaker candidate in November. This is an interesting group because
Democrats are debating endlessly about which of their candidates is stronger, but Republicans
have no doubt: Obama is the one they fear. They don't want the election to become a
contest between young and old (like 1960).
In Kentucky, Clinton is headed for one of her biggest victories of the campaign and in
North Carolina Obama continues to lead.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Indiana
Howey-Gauge
Apr. 24
45%
47%
Kentucky
SurveyUSA
Apr. 28
63%
27%
North Carolina
Rasmussen
Apr. 28
37%
51%
North Carolina
SurveyUSA
Apr. 28
44%
49%
One general election poll, and there McCain beats either Democrat handily (19% against either one) in Alabama.
The April 25
posting had a table showing how
liberal interest groups rated members of the House. Today we have a similar table with ratings from
consevative groups.
The eight groups used in this study are:
ACU - American Conservative Union ATR - Americans for Tax Reform CWA - Concerned Women for America Club4 - Club for Growth Eagle - Eagle Forum FRC - Family Research Council RTL - Right to Life TVC - Traditional Values Coalition
The ratings are for 2007 where available, otherwise for 2006.
Actually, only the Eagle Forum had 2007 data, so all the others are 2006.
The data are available for download in
.csv format
so you can slice and dice the data as you wish.
The liberal group ratings are also available in
.csv format so you can combine them in Excel and play with
the data as you wish.
The two tables for the Senate as well as the two House tables are on the Data galore page under the menu
so you can find them easily in the future.
This list shows the same thing the other three have shown: how polarized Congress is.
Only five Democrats score above 60% in the eyes of conservatives, and four of these are from Republican
districts in the South. Correspondingly, only four Republicans are below 40%, and one of these (Wayne Gilchrest) was
already defeated by a primary challenger from the right,
another one, Chris Shays, is the last surviving Republican in New England who probably won't survive this year,
yet another (Mike Castle) is from the highly Democratic state of Delaware, and the last (Mark Kirk) is from IL-10, which has a
PVI of D+4.
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some
guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June.
Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters
slightly different stories that they interpret differently.