Aug. 16 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 275   McCain 250   Ties 13
Senate Dem 56   GOP 43   Ties 1
House Dem 242   GOP 193  

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This day in 2004

strong Dem Strong Dem (165)
weak Dem Weak Dem (85)
barely Dem Barely Dem (25)
tied Exactly tied (13)
barely GOP Barely GOP (85)
weak GOP Weak GOP (34)
strong GOP Strong GOP (131)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: ME NC RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): IN IA NM GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Party Leaders Want More Specifics From Obama Many Will Still Cast Vote for Clinton
Quote of the Day Obama Crushes McCain in July Fundraising
Affiliations of Cable News Watchers The 49 State Strategy?

News from the Votemaster

More Historical Data on the Electoral Votes

The Excel spreadsheet with the electoral votes 1900 to 2004 has been updated to include all people who got electoral votes from faithless electors. Thanks to John Viescas for helping.

John McCain's Divorce Led to a Lawsuit

It will be interesting to learn whether the subject of adultery comes up at John McCain's appearance at Rick Warren's Saddlebrook megachurch today. However, his divorce from his first wife is in the news for other reasons. It now seems that McCain's mother sued her former daughter-in-law to recover property that McCain's first wife refused to return. McCain says the divorce was amicable, but as a rule, in amicable divorces, the families don't sue each other. McCain says he doesn't remember the suit, but court records have surfaced detailing it. In this case, with his age a major issue, saying he doesn't remember his mother suing his ex-wife may do more damage than simply saying "divorces are no fun and my ex refused to return my mother's property." Democratic 527 groups could say: "Nobody forgets your mother suing your ex--unless your mind is going." This could be yet another example of the coverup being worse than the event being covered up.

Hillary Clinton's name will definitely be placed in nomination at the Democratic National Convention, something her supporters fervently want. A Rasmussen poll shows that 48% of Democrats think this will help party unity and 28% disagree. The issue is how the PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) Democrats--nearly all activist women--will behave after the convention, especially if Obama does not select Clinton as Veep. If they feel they have had their moment and it is now time to get behind Obama, the party will go into the general election unified. Otherwise, internal battles will be distracting. On the Republican side, while many evangelicals clearly prefer former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee to McCain, most of them seemed to have accepted that McCain is the nominee this time.

Today's Polls

A few days ago we had a SurveyUSA poll showing John McCain leading Barack Obama by only 4 points in North Carolina. Now we have a Rasmussen poll confirming that. Rasmussen puts McCain ahead 46% to 42%, technically a statistical tie. But combined with the SurveyUSA poll, it is probably true that McCain is slightly ahead in the Tar Heel state. If Obama is able to turn out the black vote very strongly and get the professionals in the Research Triangle area to vote in very large numbers, this race might become quite competitive. For now, McCain is favored to take North Carolina, though. In Maine, Obama is way ahead, as he has been all year.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Maine 49% 36% Aug 12 Aug 12 Rasmussen
North Carolina 42% 46% Aug 13 Aug 13 Rasmussen

More bad news for the Republicans in Alaska. First, a poll shows Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), the longest-serving Republican senator in history, down by double digits against his young challenger, Mark Begich (D), Mayor of Anchorage. Second, in Stevens' upcoming trial, prosecutors are going to enter evidence that Stevens got an interest-free loan to finance a Florida real estate deal on which he made $100,000. He didn't mention this on his Senate financial disclosure form, which is a felony. Woe is Uncle Ted. Unless Stevens drops out of the race after the primary and allows the Alaska Republican Party to pick a new candidate, it looks like there will be a changing of the guard. However, not all Senate news is bad for the GOP. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has increased her lead over Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME), who already represents half the state but seems to be having trouble convincing the other half to hire him.

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
Alaska Mark Begich 56% Ted Stevens* 39% Aug 09 Aug 12 Ivan Moore Research
Maine Tom Allen 38% Susan Collins* 53% Aug 12 Aug 12 Rasmussen

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-- The Votemaster