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News: Updated Feb. 12

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Clinton Clinton won
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News from the Votemaster

Today we have the Potomac Primaries--Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. Obama is likely to win all three as Virginia has a good mix of college-educated whites (in the north) and blacks, Maryland has plenty of college-educated voters although not as many blacks as Virginia and D.C. has a majority black electorate. Solid wins in all three will probably put Obama ahead in delegate totals.

Obama also has a good shot at winning student-heavy Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and is very likely to win his birth state, Hawaii, the same day.

After these, the next big event is March 4, when Texas (with a large Latino population) and Ohio (with many older blue collar workers) vote. These are key Clinton groups and she could get back her momentum by big wins here. At that point it would be likely that the nomination will be fought out at the convention, starting with a food fight over seating the Florida and Michigan delegations. Of course the DNC desperately wants to avoid a credentials fight. One possible solution is to hold caucuses in Florida and Michigan June 10, which gives them the final word. These would be sanctioned by the party and both candidates could compete there and all the resulting delegates would be seated with no argument.

On the Republican side, John McCain and Mike Huckabee face off in Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. as well. The Virginia primary especially could show how deep the discontent with McCain is among conservatives. If they rally around Huckabee as the last McCain opponent standing, Huckabee still won't win the nomination, but it will demonstrate the depth of McCain's problem.

Here are today's polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Maryland ARG Feb. 9 37% 55% 50% 25% 11%
Maryland SurveyUSA Feb. 10 32% 55% 52% 26% 10%
Virginia ARG Feb. 9 38% 56% 54% 32% 5%
Virginia SurveyUSA Feb. 10 38% 60% 48% 37% 7%

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:


Clinton 1148 Obama 1121 Edwards 26   Needed: 2025
McCain 723 Romney 286 Huckabee 217 Paul 16 Needed: 1191

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com