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News: Updated Feb. 16

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
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News from the Votemaster

Here are today's polls. The ARG poll in Texas seems way off. If it is a typo, it is ARG's typo. Either this is a statistical fluke or they have a problem with their model for likely voters. All the pollsters try to guess who will vote in the primaries and they ask several questions to try to estimate the likelihood that an interviewee will actually vote. These screens are hard to get right. It is possible that in Texas, with its large Mexican population, there were language or other issues here. The other pollsters put Clinton in the lead in Texas.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Texas ARG Feb. 14 42% 48% 42% 36% 11%
Texas Insider Advantage Feb. 14 48% 41%      
Texas Pub. Opin. Strat./Hamilton Feb. 14     45% 41% 6%
Texas Rasmussen Feb. 14 54% 38% 45% 37% 7%
Wisconsin Research 2000 Feb. 14 42% 47% 48% 32% 7%

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

There has been a lot of talk about the PLEOs deciding the Democratic nomination. (The media usually call them superdelegates, but none of them are on YouTube leaping tall buildings in a single bound or moving faster than a speeding bullet.) Some are regular folks who are active in politics while others are elected public officials. CQ Politics has a list of these people, who collectively may choose the Democratic nominee and potentially the next President. None of them are bound to vote for a specific candidate and even if they announce their support for a candidate, they are free to change their minds. In fact, some already have. Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), an icon of the civil rights movement, previousl endorsed Hillary Clinton but has now said he will vote for Barack Obama at the convention. The PLEOs who are members of Congress may have to choose between voting the way their district or state voted, voting for the strongest candidate against John McCain, or voting for the person they think would make the best President. Those PLEOs who are members of the DNC have even less guidance. They could vote the way their state voted, but they can also make a case for looking after the party's national interest.

While Barack Obama and John McCain make strong appeals to members of the other party and to independents, partisanship is not dead. Far from it. In Maryland on Tuesday, two incumbent members of the House, one Democrat and one Republican, were defeated in primaries for not being partisan enough. In MD-01, moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest was defeated by a right-wing state senator, Andy Harris, who was supported by the antitax Club for Growth. The club ran a large number of ads attacking Gilchrest for not supporting tax cuts more vigorously. In MD-04, Albert Wynn, a moderate Democrat was defeated by a progressive community organizer, Donna Edwards who campaigned that he was too cosy with corporate interests. She was backed by the SEIU, Emily's List, and other progressive groups. Thus while many voters think there is too much partisanship in Congress, representatives who are not partisan enough can face primary challenges financed by outside groups. These losses are going to be well noted by other moderate members of Congress.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources. They differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, some sources try to count the PLEOs (Part Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
NY Times 892 934 12 808 139 198 5
AP 1220 1275 26 843 280 242 14
CNN 1213 1262 26 830 286 217 16
ABC 1224 1297 35 823 286 242 14
CBS 1208 1284 26 815 166 199 10

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com