Here are today's polls. The ARG poll in Texas seems way off. If it is a typo,
it is ARG's typo. Either this is a statistical fluke or they have a problem with
their model for likely voters. All the pollsters try to guess who will vote in
the primaries and they ask several questions to try to estimate the likelihood
that an interviewee will actually vote. These screens are hard to get right.
It is possible that in Texas, with its large Mexican population, there were
language or other issues here. The other pollsters put Clinton in the lead in
Texas.
There has been a lot of talk about the PLEOs deciding the Democratic
nomination. (The media usually call them superdelegates, but none of them
are on YouTube leaping tall buildings in a single bound or moving faster
than a speeding bullet.) Some are regular folks who are active in politics
while others are elected public officials. CQ Politics has a
list
of these people, who collectively may choose the Democratic nominee and potentially
the next President.
None of them are bound to vote for a specific candidate and even if they
announce their support for a candidate, they are free to change their minds.
In fact, some already have. Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), an icon of the civil
rights movement, previousl endorsed Hillary Clinton but has now said he
will vote for Barack Obama at the convention. The PLEOs who are members of
Congress may have to choose between voting the way their district or state
voted, voting for the strongest candidate against John McCain, or voting
for the person they think would make the best President. Those PLEOs who
are members of the DNC have even less guidance. They could vote the way
their state voted, but they can also make a case for looking after the party's
national interest.
While Barack Obama and John McCain make strong appeals to members of the
other party and to independents, partisanship is not dead. Far from it.
In Maryland on Tuesday, two incumbent members of the House, one Democrat and one Republican, were defeated
in primaries for not being partisan enough.
In MD-01, moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest was defeated by a right-wing state senator,
Andy Harris, who was supported by the antitax Club for Growth. The club ran a large number
of ads attacking Gilchrest for not supporting tax cuts more vigorously.
In MD-04, Albert Wynn, a moderate Democrat was defeated by a progressive community
organizer, Donna Edwards who campaigned that he was too cosy with corporate interests.
She was backed by the SEIU, Emily's List, and other progressive groups. Thus while many
voters think there is too much partisanship in Congress, representatives who are not
partisan enough can face primary challenges financed by outside groups. These losses
are going to be well noted by other moderate members of Congress.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources.
They differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, some
sources try to count the PLEOs (Part Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote
at the convention.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
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