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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Republican primaries and caucuses

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News: Updated Feb. 24

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News from the Votemaster

A number of people commented on the Obama smear posted here yesterday (click on "Previous report" above if you missed it). The idea of reprinting it verbatim was that this kind of smear only works in darkness, among the ignorant. For example, a teacher from a poor area of the South said that most of his students believe what is in the e-mail and their parents do too. These are people who are trying to keep their heads above water and do not read the NY Times online every day. The best way to fight this garbage is to expose it to the light of day and open people's eye's about what is going on under the surface. Lee Atwater built his entire career on this kind of tactic and then passed it on to his star pupil. If anyone thinks an Obama-McCain race will be clean and fought on the issues, he or she is very naive. It is only February. Polls show Obama beating McCain. If that is still true in September, some people will get desperate. Although McCain himself is an honorable person and probably would abhor such conduct, some of his supporters may care only about winning and don't care at all what they have to do to achieve it. As the Boy Scouts and Tom Lehrer would say: Be prepared.

The Next Hurrah has a scatterplot of Bush-Kerry on the x-axis and Obama-Clinton on the y-axis. From the scatterplot, you can see that Obama has done extremely well in states that Bush carried, often by large margins. This might mean the GOP might actually have to spend money to defend states like Idaho and North Dakota against Obama, states that would normally be freebies.

The NY Times has a story that the Clinton camp has become nostalgic and is beginning to think about what might have been. Well, it is not over yet. If Clinton wins big victories in Texas and Ohio, she's still in the game. But if she loses both of them, it is hard to see how she could continue. A split decision, Texas for Obama, Ohio for Clinton might keep her going until Pennsylvania at least.

Speaking of Pennsylvania, a new poll shows Clinton leading there.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Pennsylvania Muhlenberg Coll. Feb. 17 45% 31%      

The Senate and House committees have reported on fund raising through the end of January. Below are the numbers. The Senate Democrats, under the chairmanship of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have more than twice as much money on hand the the Republicans, under the chairmanship of Sen. John Ensign (R-NV). In the House it is even more extreme, with Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) having seven times as much cash on hand as Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK). This disparity could affect many races for the Senate and House. Here are the numbers.

Chamber Committee Total Raised Spent Net Jan. 31
Senate DSCC $59 million $29 million $30 million
Senate NRSC $35 million $22 million $13 million
House DCCC $71 million $37 million $34 million
House NRCC $53 million $48 million $4 million

On the other hand, the RNC is ahead of the DNC with $22 million in the bank vs. only $3 million for the DNC. For more on the money story, see RealClearPolitics, or Daily Kos.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources. They differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, some sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1266 1362 +96   967   254  
NY Times 1112 1117 +5 12 827 142 205 5
AP 1262 1351 +89 26 957 256 254 14
CNN 1250 1319 +69 26 918 286 217 16
ABC 1272 1369 +97 35 924 273 247 14
CBS 1265 1365 +100 26 859 166 205 10
MSNBC 1262 1323 +61   822 282 243 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com