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News: Updated Mar. 07

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
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News from the Votemaster

SurveyUSA polled 600 people in each of the 50 states to see who would win:
      a Clinton-McCain matchup
      a Obama-McCain Matchup

Obama wins a large number of red states, including North Dakota, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Clinton loses every state west of the Mississippi river except California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Arkansas. But she makes up for it by winning the biggie: Florida, which Obama loses. With Clinton in the race, every multihomed New York snowbird is going to go to Florida Nov. 1 and vote there. Both of them beat McCain; he by 22 electoral votes and she by 14 electoral votes. As an aside, this is where robopolling (which SurveyUSA and Rasmussen use) shows its strength. Interviewing 30,000 people using human callers would be quite a project. Telling the computer to make 150,000 random calls (or whatever it takes to get 30,000 people to answer the questions) is quite a bit easier. Here are the SurveyUSA maps.


The candidates are breaking records fundraising. Clinton raised $35 million in February, which is incredible. Nevertheless, Obama beat that, raising $55 million February. Together, they can buy all the TV time in the state of Wyoming until Saturday's caucuses. If you live in Wyoming, you can expect 24 hours of continuous political commercials today. Maybe turn off the TV and go outside to enjoy your beautiful state. Then go caucus Saturday.

Daily Kos has a detailed posting about the many flavors of superdelegates, from distinguished party leaders to add ons and the consequences thereof.

Probably the biggest issue for the Democrats is what to do about Michigan and Florida. There is talk about Michigan organizing a caucus sanctioned by the party. Hillary Clinton will strongly oppose this because Obama has won nearly all the caucuses so far. Ultimately, it is not her call though. The Michigan Democratic party has to organize it and pay for it and the DNC has to approve it. In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist (R) has suggested a new primary--paid for the by the DNC--knowing full well that a primary could cost $25 million, money the DNC does not have. This is clearly a nonstarter, but the solution for Florida is far from clear.

There is one new poll today, in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton is currently way ahead there.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Pennsylvania Rasmussen Mar. 5 52% 37%      

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1462 1569 +107   1282   277  
NY Times 1370 1459 +89 12 1110 142 225 5
AP 1462 1569 +107 26 1253 257 271 14
CNN 1424 1520 +96 26 1289 255 267 16
ABC 1457 1571 +114 32 1222 273 272 14
CBS 1452 1563 +111 26 1205 149 231 10
MSNBC 1227 1366 +139 +26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster