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News: Updated Mar. 16

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
Clinton: won popular vote
Obama: most delegates
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News from the Votemaster

The multistage Iowa caucuses advanced another step yesterday and Barack Obama picked up 52% of the delegates compared to 32% for Hillary Clinton. The rest stuck with John Edwards, even though he has dropped out of the race. A story about yesterday's county caucuses can be found here. The mostly like result of yesterday's caucuses is that Obama will get a net gain of seven Iowa delegates.

Stuff is also going on in Texas under the radar. The Clinton camp is demanding that all the signatures of people who came to the Texas caucus be verified before being finalized in two weeks. This could be the first step before a lawsuit. Whatever the legal merits of the case are (1) Texas has been operating like this for decades and Bill Clinton did fine under these rules in 1992 and didn't complain and (2) suing your own party over procedural matters makes you look like a sore loser, which in politics is not a good thing.

In California, the delegate totals from the Feb. 5 primary were revised. Obama picked by 5 delegates and Clinton got two more.

The NY Times has a good story on Vice Presidents today. Bottom line: they matter. About 1/3 of them have gone on to become President. Given John McCain's age and repeated bouts with malignant melanoma, his choice will undergo special scrutiny. With a woman or black man heading the Democratic ticket, that person's choice for #2 will undoubtedly be seen as indicating something important about how #1 would govern.

No new polls today. The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. None of the news outlets have reflected the Iowa and California results in their totals yet.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1497 1603 +106   1334   278  
NY Times 1446 1569 +123 12 1152 142 225 5
AP 1497 1603 +106 26 1334 257 278 14
CNN 1480 1611 +131 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1486 1603 +117 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1476 1610 +134 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1251 1400 +149 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster