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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Republican primaries and caucuses

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News: Updated Mar. 28

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
Clinton: won popular vote
Obama: most delegates
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News from the Votemaster

It is at least conceivable that the general election campaign might involve perhaps some discussion of the issues instead of being entirely a mudfest. The Democratic primary is issue-free because, to paraphrase the late Gov. George Wallace "there's not a dime's worth of difference between the candidates." In the general election that might be different because with the near collapse of the mortgage market, the economy is becoming one of the top issues (although Iraq has the potential to overtake it if things go south there). While Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have pretty much the same views on the economy, John McCain has a different view. In a nutshell, the Democrats believe the government should bail out individuals who made stupid (i.e., greedy) decisions about getting a mortgage they had no hope of ever repaying. In contrast, the Republican believes the government should bail out banks and brokers who made stupid (i.e., greedy) decisions about issuing mortgages to people who had no hope of ever repaying them. The NY Times has a story about these differences.

We have one new primary poll today. Obama has a large (15%) lead over Clinton in North Carolina. Although North Carolina does not have as many delegates as Pennsylvania (134 vs. 187), a big Obama victory here will almost cancel out a big Clinton victory in Pennsylvania.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
North Carolina Insider Advantage Mar. 26 34% 49%      

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June. Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters slightly different stories that they interpret differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1499 1621 +122   1334   278  
NY Times 1473 1623 +150 12 1162 142 232 5
AP 1498 1617 +119 18 1334 257 278 14
CNN 1485 1622 +137 26 1325 255 267 16
ABC 1493 1620 +127 32 1267 273 272 14
CBS 1491 1619 +128 26 1241 149 231 10
MSNBC 1506 1626 +120 26 1266 293 262 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2024, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster