Wyoming Caucus March 8 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (38%)
Wisconsin Primary on February 19 1. Obama (58%) 2. Clinton (41%)
West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27%
West Virginia Primary on May 13 (total of 39 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 13: Clinton 55% Obama 27%
Washington Caucus on February 9 1. Obama (68%)
Virginia Primary on February 12 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (35%)
Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%)
Vermont Primary on March 4 1. Obama (60%) 2. Clinton (38%)
Utah Primary on February 5 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (39%)
Texas Hybrid on March 4 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (47%) Obama won caucuses &most delegates
Tennessee Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (41%)
South Dakota Primary on June 3 (total of 23 delegates) No polls have been published
South Carolina Primary on January 26 1. Barack Obama (55%) 2. Hillary Clinton (27%) 3. John Edwards (18%)
Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%)
Rhode Island Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (58%) 2. Obama (40%)
Pennsylvania Primary on April 22 (total of 187 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 24: Clinton 49% Obama 39% Mar 16: Clinton 53% Obama 41% Mar 16: Clinton 51% Obama 35%
Oregon Primary on May 20 (total of 65 delegates) Most recent polls: Jan 29: Clinton 36% Obama 28% Aug 15: Clinton 26% Obama 18%
Oklahoma Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (31%)
Ohio Primary on March 4 1. Clinton (55%) 2. Obama (44%)
North Dakota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%)
North Carolina Primary on May 6 (total of 134 delegates) Most recent polls: Mar 26: Clinton 34% Obama 49% Mar 10: Clinton 41% Obama 49% Mar 06: Clinton 40% Obama 47%
New York Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (57%) 2. Obama (40%)
New Mexico Caucus on February 5 1. Clinton (51%) 2. Obama (49%)
New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%)
New Jersey Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (54%) 2. Obama (44%)
New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%)
New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. Hillary Clinton (39%) 2. Barack Obama (36%) 3. John Edwards (17%)
Nevada Caucus on January 19 1. Hillary Clinton (51%) 2. Barack Obama (46%) 3. John Edwards (4%) Obama won most delegates
Nebraska Caucus on February 9 1. Obama 68% Clinton (32%)
Montana Primary on June 3 (total of 25 delegates) Most recent polls: Dec 19: Clinton 29% Obama 17%
Missouri Primary on February 5 1. Obama (49%) 2. Clinton (48%)
Mississippi Primary on March 11 1. Obama (61%) 2. Clinton (37%)
Minnesota Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%)
Michigan Primary on January 15 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (55%) 2. Uncommitted (40%) 3. Dennis Kucinich (4%)
Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%)
Massachusetts Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (56%) 2. Obama (41%)
Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%)
Maryland Primary on February 12 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (36%)
Maine Caucus on February 10 1. Obama (59%) 2. Clinton (40%)
Louisiana Primary on February 9 1. Obama (57%) 2. Clinton (36%)
Kentucky Primary on May 20 (total of 60 delegates) No polls have been published
Kansas Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (26%)
Iowa Caucus on January 3 1. Barack Obama (38%) 2. John Edwards (30%) 3. Hillary Clinton (29%)
Indiana Primary on May 6 total of 85 delegates No polls have been published
Indiana Primary on May 6 (total of 85 delegates) Most recent polls: Feb 18: Clinton 25% Obama 40%
Illinois Primary on February 5 1. Obama (64%) 2. Clinton (33%)
Idaho Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (80%) 2. Clinton (17%)
Hawaii Caucus on February 19 1. Obama (76%) 2. Clinton (24%)
Georgia Primary on February 5 1. Obama (66%) 2. Clinton (31%)
Florida Primary on January 29 No delegates chosen 1. Hillary Clinton (50%) 2. Barack Obama (33%) 3. John Edwards (14%)
Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%)
Delaware Primary on February 5 1. Obama (53%) 2. Clinton (42%)
D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%)
D.C. Primary on February 12 1. Obama (75%) 2. Clinton (24%)
Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%)
Connecticut Primary on February 5 1. Obama (51%) 2. Clinton (47%)
Colorado Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (67%) 2. Clinton (32%)
California Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (52%) 2. Obama (43%)
Arkansas Primary on February 5 1. Clinton (69%) 2. Obama (27%)
Arizona Primary on February 5 Clinton (51%) Obama (42%)
Alaska Caucus on February 5 1. Obama (74%) 2. Clinton (25%)
Alabama Primary on February 5 1. Obama (56%) 2. Clinton (42%)
It is at least conceivable that the general election campaign might
involve perhaps some discussion of the issues instead of being entirely
a mudfest. The Democratic primary is issue-free because, to paraphrase
the late Gov. George Wallace "there's not a dime's worth of difference
between the candidates."
In the general election that might be different because with the near
collapse of the mortgage market, the economy is becoming one of the
top issues (although Iraq has the potential to overtake it if things
go south there). While Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have pretty
much the same views on the economy, John McCain has a different view.
In a nutshell, the Democrats believe the government should bail out
individuals who made stupid (i.e., greedy) decisions about getting a
mortgage they had no hope of ever repaying.
In contrast, the Republican believes the government should bail out
banks and brokers who made stupid (i.e., greedy) decisions about
issuing mortgages to people who had no hope of ever repaying them.
The NY Times has a
story
about these differences.
We have one new primary poll today. Obama has a large (15%) lead over
Clinton in North Carolina. Although North Carolina does not have as
many delegates as Pennsylvania (134 vs. 187), a big Obama victory here
will almost cancel out a big Clinton victory in Pennsylvania.
Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers
(Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote).
The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have
been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention so there is some
guesswork involved. Furthermore, some of the unpledged delegates are elected at state conventions in May or June.
Finally, the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) sometimes waver and may tell different reporters
slightly different stories that they interpret differently.
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