Note: If you didn't check the site
and have the time, you might want to. There was a fair amount of news over the weekend.
Researchers Find Reverse Bradley Effect in Primaries
The Bradley effect--a black politician doing well in the polls but badly in the actual election--has been much discussed
but there is little data on how it would work this year. Now a team of researchers from the University of Washington
has analyzed the data from the 32 Democratic primaries this year and come to a
The effect existed in California, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, but a reverse effect existed in
12 other states, largely in the Southeast. Obama did better in the elections there than in the polls leading up to them.
Researchers speculate that some people may tend to give pollsters the "socially correct" answer
and in the Southeast, supporting the white person is socially correct. But this is just one study.
Don't take it too seriously.
McCain in Trouble with Latinos
McCain's relationship with the Latino community has been poisoned by the anti-immigrant Tancredo wing of the
Republican party, but also by McCain himself. When he coauthored the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, which would
have provided a path to citizenship for 12 million illegal immigrants, many of them Latinos, he was cheered by the Latino
community. For a while it looked like he could have gotten more than the 40% of the Latino vote that Bush got in 2004.
But when he rejected his own bill and said he would veto it if Congress passed it, the Latinos
bailed on him. Four key swing states--Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico--have large Latino populations
and he has developed a profound weakness
there that is
probably too late to repair. Earlier this year when McCain was forced to make a choice--between the Tancredos and the
Latinos--he chose the Tancredos and he has now discovered that you reap what you sow.
Politifact Debunks Obama-Ayers Connection
The McCain campaign and the RNC are still using ads (e.g.,
like this one
that link Obama and 1960s radical William Ayers.
Now Polifact has examined
the ads closely and concluded that the claim that Obama and Ayers ran a radical education
foundation together is a "pants-on-fire" lie.
While it is true that Obama was the nominal head of the foundation in question, Ayers never had a paid
position on the foundation's staff, never was on the board, and never had a vote on anything.
His connection to Obama was attending some board meetings that were open to the public, and this 20 years after his
radical days, by which time he had reformed enough to get a Ph.D. in education from Columbia University
and was able to win Chicago's "Citizen of the Year" award in 1997 for his work for nonprofit organizations. In short,
while Ayers was a despicable person in his youth, the McCain campaign's relentless
on the close relationship
between Obama and Ayers is very misleading. They weren't close at all.
The Man Behind the "Obama Is a Muslim" Campaign Is Exposed"
E-mails have been circulating this year saying that Obama is a Muslim or is not a U.S. citizen, and
similar things that are not true. Polls show that 10-15% of the population believe them. Ever wonder how these
things get started? They are not seeded by spores from meteorites that landed on the earth 50 million
years ago. They are very intentional, carefully crafted campaigns and one of the people responsible, Andy Martin,
appeared on Fox News last week. The NY Times has a
on Martin. He has run for public office numerous times (once so he could "exterminate Jew power")
and lost them all and has filed so many frivolous lawsuits that
a federal judge once forbade him from filing any more without advance permission.
Opening Shot in the Battle for the Soul of the Republican Party
If John McCain wins the presidency, he will probably have enough power to force recalcitrant Republicans
to grudgingly follow him on most issues. However, House Republicans are already beginning to at least consider
how they would regroup under an Obama presidency. About 110 of the 199 are members of the Republican Study
Committee, which thinks the party should get back to its conservative roots. Although many of them held their
noses and voted for the Patriot Act and No Child Left Behind, in principle they oppose these laws, both of
which vastly expanded the role of the federal government. Most of them voted against the Wall St. bailout act
until so much pork was thrown in that they smelled the bacon and couldn't resist.
The bailout bill might later prove to be the
in the war for the soul of the Republican Party.
Chaos Expected on Election Day
Many observers expect chaos on election day, ranging from electronic voting
machines that don't work to poorly trained poll workers to insufficient paper
ballots. About nine million people will vote with equipment that the poll workers
have never seen before. It could be a multistate disaster.
Lou Dobbs has a
Obama Leads on Intrade 353 to 185
This morning's state-by-state Intrade.com map
shows Obama with 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.
This is not far off from our score of 346 to 181 with Missouri tied.
Bettors think Obama will sweep all the Kerry states
plus Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The only swing state colored
red is Missouri. Here is the Intrade map.
Obama Continues to Lead in the National Polls
Here is today's batch of national polls. Obama has an average lead nationally of 8%.
- Diageo tracking (Obama +8)
- Gallup Tracking (Obama +7)
- Rasmussen tracking (Obama +6)
- Research 2000 tracking (Obama +13)
- Washington Post/ABC (Obama +10)
- Zogby (Obama +4)
We have three presidential polls today.
One of them is either astounding or wrong.
Minnesota State University Moorhead ran a
in North Dakota and found Barack Obama
ahead of John McCain 45% to 43%. Now that is just a statistical tie, but a statistical
tie in a state Bush won by 27 points in 2004 and 28 points in 2000 is not good news for
McCain. He really doesn't have the time, energy, and resources to fight for states like
North Dakota. Maybe this is just a fluke though. Nevada is also a near tie, but that is expected.
|| Oct 09
|| Oct 09
| North Dakota
|| Oct 06
|| Oct 08
|| Minnesota State U. Moorhead
|| Oct 08
|| Oct 09
We also have two House polls, both in hotly contested races in Nevada and both showing the incumbent Republican
with a big lead.
|| Jill Derby
|| Dean Heller*
|| Oct 08
|| Oct 09
|| Dina Titus
|| Jon Porter*
|| Oct 08
|| Oct 09
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