News from the Votemaster

Only 387 New Ballots Will be Counted in Minnesota

All Minnesota counties have now complied with the court order to supply absentee ballots that were previously rejected but which are legal under Minnesota law. There are 387 such ballots and the three-judge panel overseeing the election contest is expected to open and count them this week. Since Democrat Al Franken leads Republican Norm Coleman by 225 votes, Coleman would need 79% of these absentee ballots to move into the lead. As that is extremely unlikely, Coleman has already said he will appeal the case to the Minnesota Supreme Court.

Special Election to Fill Emanuel's Seat Today

The voters in IL-05 will go to the polls (well, a few of them), to elect a successor to Rahm Emanuel, now White House Chief of Staff. The Chicago district is heavily Democratic and everyone expects Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley (D) to handily defeat Rosanna Pulido (R), an anti-illegal-immigration activist.

Paterson's Approval at an All-Time Low

A new poll shows that only 22% of New Yorkers think he should be elected governor in 2010. In a primary against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the former governor's son would trounce Paterson 53% to 32% and then go on to defeat Rudy Giuliani by a 53% to 36% margin if Giuliani is the Republican nominee, something that is unlikely if Giuliani keeps seeing poll numbers like that.

Gillibrand Raised $2.3 million in the First Quarter

Some NY Democrats feel that Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is too conservative for their taste (especially on gun control) and are thinking of challenging her in a primary. However, they may have forgotten that she is a prodigious fund raiser. She intends to remind them of this. In the first quarter of 2009, she raked in $2.3 million already.

Mongiardo Raises $420,000 for Kentucky Senate Race

Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D-KY) has filed a report with the FEC stating that he raised $420,000 in the first quarter of 2009 for his campaign for the U.S. Senate. In 2004, he ran against Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) and nearly beat him and now he wants a rematch. Bunning has said his fundraising has been lousy. However, before Mongiardo can go after Bunning, he may have to win a primary, as several other Kentucky Democrats are thinking of running as well, including state Attorney General Jack Conway.

Analysis of 2008 Voting Turnout Available

Nine million more people voted in 2008 than in 2004, but since the voting-age population increased by 10 million, the turnout was about the same according to a new study from George Mason University. However turnout among various groups was not flat. Blacks, Latinos, and young people voted in greater numbers and whites voted in fewer numbers than in 2004 according to the report.

More Gubernatorial Races

Here are brief summaries of the gubernatorial races in the rest of the Midwest and the Great Plains.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Pawlenty (R)	(D)	Some people are talking about Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) as a possible presidential nominee in 2012. He hasn't discouraged that kind of talk, but he is not term limited and could run for a third term in 2010. In neither of his first two wins did he achieve even 50% of the vote, so a third run where he barely squeaks through may give Republicans some pause about him as a national candidate. Democrats know Pawlenty is vulnerable and many are lining up to challenge him. The mayors of Minneapolis and St. Paul may run in the Democratic primary along with the Speaker of the state House and maybe even former senator Mark Dayton. If Pawlenty decides to retire to focus on running for President full time, the gubernatorial race will become a free for all on both sides.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chet Culver (D)	(R)	Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) is a moderate Democrat in a moderately Democratic state. He is a good fit for the state and will be tough to beat when he runs for his second term in 2010. The most likely Republican candidates are Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey and state Auditor David Vaudt.

South Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Open seat. Were he not term limited, the popular governor, Mike Rounds, could easily win a third term, then a fourth one, and then a fifth one. Despite the Republican tilt of the state in presidential elections, one of the senators (Tim Johnson) and the only representative (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) are Democrats. In fact, Herseth Sandlin may be interested in becoming governor, a job her grandfather once held. If she runs, she'll probably win, too. If she doesn't run, there are half a dozen Republicans interested in the job and they will slug it out and whoever wins the Republican primary is likely to win the general election.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Heineman (R)	(D)	Then Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman (R-NE) inherited his job when Gov. Mike Johanns became Secretary of Agriculture but Heineman ran on his own in 2006 and won convincingly. He is expected to run in 2010 and win convincingly again. The Democrats are likely to nominate a state legislator such as Steve Lathrop or Tom White, but neither one has much of a chance.

Oklahoma

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) is term limited so this will be an open seat in the reddest state in the country (McCain got 66% of the vote here, vs. a 65% in Wyoming and a mere 63% in Utah). In fact, Oklahoma is the only state in which McCain carried every county. Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D-OK) is running as is Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D), but the Republicans have a flotilla of prospects, including Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK) and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), former representative J.C. Watts (R), and Oklahome City mayor Mick Cornett (R). Nevertheless, the situation is not hopeless for the Democrats as they currently control every single statewide office.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Rick Perry (R)	(D)	The fight to unseat Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), soon to be the longest serving governor in Texas history, is going to be a humdinger. Only he won't be battling a Democrat; he'll be battling a fellow Republican, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) in a bitter primary. Senate Republicans are pleading with her not to run as she would probably win and leave behind an open Senate seat that Houston mayor Bill White (D) might be able to win. No matter who the Republican candidate for governor is, he or she is very likely to win.