News from the Votemaster

Senators' Approval Ratings Polled     Permalink

Public Policy Polling has asked people in a number of states what they think of their senator. Here are the numbers.

RFK's Son to Run for Obama's Senate Seat     Permalink

Roland Burris' net -45% approval/disapproval rating may or may not stop him from running for a full term in 2010, but if does, he will discover that he has quite a bit of company in the Democratic primary. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is already in and Bobby Kennedy's son, Chris Kennedy, is now poised to enter as well. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) is mulling a run and Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan might jump in, too, although it is more likely she will run for governor. Kennedy has never run for public office before, but the Kennedy name is still revered by many Democrats. Caroline Kennedy wasn't appointed to Hillary Clinton's vacant Senate seat in New York, but that has everything to do with the somewhat mercurial nature of Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) and a behind-the-scenes campaign by the state's formiddable senior senator, Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who strongly championed now-senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). A Kennedy-Giannoulias battle would be a fight of epic proportions, but Burris would be left in the dust were he foolish enough to try. The $845 he raised in the first quarter of 2009 won't go very far in expensive Illinois.

How Emanuel Got Israel to Drop Out of Senate Primary     Permalink

City Hall News describes at length why Rep. Steve Israel decided not to challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in a primary. Basically, President Obama's Chief-of-Staff, Rahm Emanuel told him that the President would put everything he's got into seeing him defeated, including personally campaigning in New York City with Gillibrand in tow. Israel got the message. So far no other challengers have announced. The two Carolyns (McCarthy and Maloney) may be pondering the message. (Thanks to Political wire for pointing out the story,) An aide to Israel has semi-denied the story, but the incident fits very well into Emanuel's known past behavior (like the time he repeatedly slammed a meat cleaver into a table when discussing an opponent).

So what's going here? Clearly Emanuel (and Obama and DSCC chairman Bob Menendez) want to save their pennies for Senate races in New Hampshire, Kentucky, Missouri, and Ohio, where they will be trying to flip Republican seats. Having Democrats fighting Democrats seems counterproductive to them. Their reasoning: Gillibrand is now a senator, so, flawed as she may be, let her keep her seat. This whole event exposes two coountervailing views of politics and politicians: the ideological model and the partisan model. Some people are so passionately attached to one or more causes that they want their politicians to be equally fervent and any sign of deviation from being a true believer is fatal. People who subscribe to the partisan model don't care what their politicians truly believe as long as they vote the way their party tells them to. In Gillibrand's case, ideological liberals see her as fatally flawed because she is clearly not a lifelong liberal who has marched and protested for the proper causes. People in the second category say that when she represented the rural voters of NY-20 she voted in Congress the way they wanted her to vote (e.g., against gun control) and now in the Senate she will vote the way the majority of people in the state want her to vote. That's the job of a senator. Ideological liberals won't let her (future) voting record get her off the hook because she is not a true believer. Although Israel no doubt has some personal ambition, he is clearly ideologically way to the left of Gillibrand and that certainly played a role in his now-aborted decision to try to take her down.

Another person who brings out the ideological vs. partisan divide is Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Specter). What he truly and deeply cares about is Arlen Specter. Ideologically oriented Democrats want a primary challenge from a "real" Democrat, possibly Rep. Joe Sestak. Partisan Democrats say that if now votes the way majority leader Harry Reid wants him to vote, that's good enough. They don't care about his inner feelings, just his votes. This perpetual war between ideology and partisanship is part of what makes politics fascinating.

Coleman Preparing Case for the Supreme Court     Permalink

The Minnesota Supreme Court now has briefs from both Norm Coleman (R) and Al Franken (D). The lawyers will present their cases before the court on June 1. Then the court will render a verdict, probably within a week or two. In fact, it is hard to imagine that the justices will learn anything on June 1 that they don't already know. In case he loses, Norm Coleman is ready to take his case to the U.S. Supreme Court. It is very unlikely Franken will lose outright. Courts really, really, really, don't like to overturn elections. His worst-case scenario is that the Minnesota high court sends the case back to the lower court for a do-over using different rules. Coleman's argument is fundamentally that different rules applied to different counties and that's not fair. Of course, different counties have different voting equipment, which may not be fair either, but that's how it is.

Coburn to Announce Plans June 1     Permalink

Sen. Tom Coburn has said that he will announce whether he plans to run for reelection in 2010 on June 1. Republicans are praying that he will. If he runs, he is a shoo-in. If he retires, Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK), is likely to enter the race and would be the early favorite. Despite its Republican leanings, Oklahomans like Henry and have elected him governor twice. He remains popular and has universal name recognition in the state. Furthermore, he would argue that his youth (he's 45) is a plus since it takes 20 years to achieve real power in the Senate, and he would still be young enough then to serve two or three more terms. If Coburn runs, Henry probably won't challenge him so Coburn will be safe.

Republicans Dominance in the South Masks Problems Elsewhere     Permalink

Ron Brownstein has an interesting piece about the Republican's "Southern Strategy." By conforming to the conservative ideology popular among white Southern men, the Republicans are rapidly becoming a small minority everywhere else. Since 1992, the South has provided Republicans with nearly 60% of its electoral votes or more--despite the region holding only 30% of the total electoral votes. In the past five elections, Republicans have won an average of only 21% of the electoral votes outside the South. In reality, the Republicans are rapidly becoming a regional party--much like the Democrats were from 1896 to 1931, when Southerners voted Democratic because they still hated Lincoln for freeing the slaves.