Tipping-Point State

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week.) The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Obama, start at the top, so if he wins D.C. and Hawaii and nothing else, he gets 7 EVs. For Romney, read up from the bottom. If he wins only Oklahoma and Wyoming, he gets 10 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Obama have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Romney have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Obama's EVs in any row plus the Romney EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Obama Romney Lead Obama EVs Romney EVs
D.C.
3
88%
8%
80%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
62%
25%
37%
 6
 535
New York
29
61%
34%
27%
 35
 532
Hawaii
4
61%
34%
27%
 39
 503
Delaware
3
62%
37%
25%
 42
 499
Rhode Island
4
54%
33%
21%
 46
 496
Massachusetts
11
58%
38%
20%
 57
 492
Maryland
10
55%
36%
19%
 67
 481
Illinois
20
55%
36%
19%
 87
 471
California
55
55%
36%
19%
 142
 451
Connecticut
7
55%
42%
13%
 149
 396
New Jersey
14
53%
41%
12%
 163
 389
Washington
12
54%
43%
11%
 175
 375
Maine
4
52%
42%
10%
 179
 363
New Mexico
5
52%
43%
9%
 184
 359
Minnesota
10
52%
43%
9%
 194
 354
Oregon
7
50%
44%
6%
 201
 344
Michigan
16
51%
45%
6%
 217
 337
Pennsylvania
20
50%
46%
4%
 237
 321
Nevada
6
51%
47%
4%
 243
 301
Wisconsin
10
50%
47%
3%
 253
 295
Virginia
13
49%
46%
3%
 266
 285
Ohio
18
49%
46%
3%
     284
     272
New Hampshire
4
50%
47%
3%
 288
 254
Iowa
6
49%
46%
3%
 294
 250
Colorado
9
48%
47%
1%
 303
 244
North Carolina
15
49%
49%
0%
 318
 235
Florida
29
47%
49%
2%
 347
 220
South Carolina
9
40%
46%
6%
 356
 191
Arizona
11
46%
53%
7%
 367
 182
Montana
3
44%
52%
8%
 370
 171
Missouri
10
44%
52%
8%
 380
 168
South Dakota
3
42%
52%
10%
 383
 158
Georgia
16
43%
53%
10%
 399
 155
Indiana
11
42%
53%
11%
 410
 139
Mississippi
6
43%
56%
13%
 416
 128
Louisiana
8
37%
50%
13%
 424
 122
West Virginia
5
38%
52%
14%
 429
 114
Kentucky
8
39%
53%
14%
 437
 109
Kansas
6
42%
57%
15%
 443
 101
Texas
38
39%
55%
16%
 481
 95
North Dakota
3
39%
55%
16%
 484
 57
Nebraska
5
40%
56%
16%
 489
 54
Alabama
9
36%
54%
18%
 498
 49
Alaska
3
38%
62%
24%
 501
 40
Tennessee
11
34%
59%
25%
 512
 37
Oklahoma
7
33%
58%
25%
 519
 26
Arkansas
6
31%
58%
27%
 525
 19
Wyoming
3
33%
65%
32%
 528
 13
Idaho
4
27%
63%
36%
 532
 10
Utah
6
26%
70%
44%
 538
 6