Republican Presidential Candidates

Below is the December 2015 list of 2016 Republican presidential candidates in roughly the order of most likely to be nominated to least likely. The strengths and weaknesses of each one in the primaries are listed. Note that what is a strength in the primaries may be a weakness in the general election and vice versa. For example, Jeb Bush's wife is a Mexican-American, which may hurt him in the primaries but help him in the general election.

Candidate Advantages in Primaries Disadvantages in Primaries
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
  • American-dream type biography
  • Can get votes from all wings of the party
  • Young and telegenic, sort of like Jack Kennedy
  • Very charismatic and likable
  • From the mother of all swing states
  • Sounds presidential when delivering talking points
  • Has misrepresented elements of that biography
  • First-term senator
  • Something of a lightweight on policy
  • Supported Senate immigration bill before he opposed it
  • Doesn't do well when going off-script
  • Personal finances raise a lot of questions
  • Seems more suited to the second slot on the ticket
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • Called Mitch McConnell a liar
  • Tea party darling
  • Young, fiery, and very conservative
  • Surprisingly good at fund raising
  • Excellent speaker and debater
  • Well organized in Super Tuesday states
  • Deploying his outspoken father Rafael to great effect
  • Republican establishment hates him
  • First-term senator
  • For a first-term senator, has an awful lof of enemies
  • Even has more enemies than most six-term senators
  • Masterminded the 2013 government shutdown
  • Too much of a firebrand for some voters
  • Too establishment for some outsider voters
  • Too outsider for some establishment voters
  • Are evangelical voters enough to take the nomination?
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
  • Loved by "poke-'em-in-the-eye" voters
  • Has been atop the polls for months
  • Actually created thousands of jobs
  • Can't be bribed, could self-fund
  • Says things no one else dares to say
  • Not a politician
  • Brilliant self-promoter
  • The most famous Republican candidate
  • Would be crushed by Clinton
  • Establishment will do anything to stop him
  • Used to be fairly liberal
  • Not exactly sure where the Middle East is
  • Demeaned John McCain's war record
  • Lots of sexist, racist, and Islamophobic remarks
  • His hair gets more attention than Hillary's
  • The most infamous Republican candidate
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush
  • Establishment loves him
  • Executive experience galore
  • Huge, battle-tested field operation
  • From the mother of all swing states
  • SuperPAC has more money than Uncle Scrooge
  • Grassroots hates him
  • Weak campaigner, keeps inserting foot in mouth
  • Has to defend his unpopular brother
  • Wrong positions on immigration & Common Core
  • Married to a Latina
  • Barbara Bush: "We've had enough Bushes"
  • Will Jeb fix it? Not so far.
John Kasich
John Kasich
  • Could be establishment fallback if others stumble
  • Twice elected in swing state of Ohio
  • From the Midwest, which could help in Iowa
  • Serious candidate, which could help in New Hampshire
  • Would win some Democrats in general election
  • Not well known
  • Running on competence, not ideology
  • Said St. Peter likes poor people
  • Supported Medicaid expansion, Common Core in Ohio
  • Has performed poorly in debates
Chris Christie
Chris Christie
  • Aggressive character
  • Ran the RGA well; popular with governors
  • Won election twice in a blue state
  • #4 with establishment after Bush, Rubio and Kasich
  • Endorsed by New Hampshire Union Leader
  • Polling badly in home state
  • Hugged Obama
  • Has only recently "discovered" he's ultraconservative
  • Last fat President was William Howard Taft; but White House bathtub is bigger now
  • Lambasted by Newark, NJ Star-Ledger
  • Demoted from main stage at last GOP debate
  • We'll cross that bridge when we come to it—if it is open
Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiorina
  • Ran a Fortune 500 company
  • Can attack Clinton without being called sexist
  • Took on liberal icon Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • Self-made multimillionaire
  • Could self fund in the primaries for a while
  • Good knowledge of the issues and good debater
  • Not a politician
  • Was fired from a Fortune 500 Company
  • Got $20 million severance when fired
  • Was crushed by Barbara Boxer in 2010
  • No political experience
  • Barebones political operation
  • Not raising enough money
Ben Carson
Ben Carson
  • Devoted following
  • Was polling very well for a while
  • A more polite version of Donald Trump
  • Not a politician
  • Married to the same woman for 40 years
  • Allows racist voters to say they are not racist
  • Willing to question orthodoxy...
  • Prone to gaffes
  • His numbers are trending downward
  • He's black in a nearly all white party
  • Never held public office
  • Not a dynamic speaker or debater
  • Not politically savvy
  • To some people, he comes over as kooky
  • Very weak on foreign policy
  • Does he want to be president or just sell books?
Rand Paul
Rand Paul
  • Could bring in new Republican voters
  • Inherits his father's zealots
  • Dislikes Big Government spying on people
  • Does not tailor his views to pander to voters
  • Doesn't like wars
  • Doesn't support "Israel good, Arabs bad" policy
  • More of a libertarian than a conservative
  • Was cheered at UC Berkeley
  • Establishment is lukewarm on him
  • First-term senator
Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee
  • Good sense of humor and very likable
  • Ordained Baptist minister
  • Southerner in a party whose base is the South
  • Well known due to 2008 run and Fox show
  • Economic populist
  • As Arkansas governor raised taxes repeatedly
  • Very poor fundraiser
  • Unpopular outside the South
  • Did badly in 2008 against a much weaker field
  • Appeals only to evangelicals, who largely favor Cruz and Carson over him
Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum
  • Been around the track before
  • Won Iowa caucuses in 2012
  • Very strong social conservative
  • Comes from a big blue state
  • Didn't win in a much weaker 2012 field
  • One-trick pony: only social conservatism
  • Tends to lecture people and not likable
  • Voters in that big blue state tossed him overboard
  • Running out of money
Lindsey Graham
Lindsey Graham
  • Knowledgeable on foreign policy
  • Retired Air Force colonel
  • Kind of folksy
  • From the South
  • Base hates him
  • Lifelong bachelor in family values party
  • Short and dresses like a used-car salesman
George Pataki
George Pataki
  • Was elected governor of a blue state three times
  • George Who?
  • Not allowed into the Republican debates without a ticket
Jim Gilmore
Jim Gilmore
  • Nobody hates him
  • Nobody ever heard of him
  • Lost 2008 Senate race to Mark Warner by 31 points
  • British bookies give the ineligible Arnold Schwarzenegger better odds
  • Also not allowed into the Republican debates without a ticket