Feb. 01

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Trump Jr.'s Mystery Calls Weren't to Trump Sr.

It is probable that high-ranking members of the Trump campaign conspired with the Russians to influence the 2016 election. It is very possible that Donald Trump himself was one of them. And the likeliest "smoking gun," one that would seemingly prove the President's complicity, was his son's phone records. Both before and after the infamous Trump Tower meeting with Natalia Veselnitskaya, Donald Trump Jr. made calls to two blocked phone numbers. Since Donald Sr. is known to use phones with blocked Caller ID, these calls looked very much like they could have been status reports. And if the then-candidate was being kept abreast of exactly what was happening, both before and after the fact, then it would be pretty ironclad evidence that he was a party to whatever took place.

According to new reporting from CNN, however, the phone calls were not to Don Sr., they were to two of Don Jr.'s business associates. CNN got this information from Senate staffers who have access to Don Jr.'s phone records, which have been subpoenaed. The outlet has not yet confirmed who the associates were, nor what was discussed. When it comes to the latter question, of course, only one or two or three people actually know the answer.

Undoubtedly, many Democrats are disappointed that this particular opportunity to catch Trump red-handed actually turns out to be a red herring. Of course, given the nature of the sourcing, not to mention the unanswered questions, it's not impossible that CNN turns out to be in error. It's also not impossible that Trump Sr. was at the other end of one of those calls, using a phone belonging to someone else, or registered in someone else's name. After all, former fixer Michael Cohen set up a shell corporation to hide the payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, and it's a much bigger task to set up a fake company than it is to set up a burner phone. Still, if the President is to be implicated in a crime, it looks like the proof is going to have to come from somewhere else. Fortunately for the authorities, they still have his Twitter account to work with. (Z)

Roger Stone Is in Deep Trouble (and, Very Possibly, So Are His Associates)

Not all of the Russiagate news on Thursday was favorable to Team Trump. The office of special counsel Robert Mueller began the process of advising the court and Stone's counsel about the evidence they've gathered against him, and it's substantial. According to court filings, it includes:

"[M]ultiple hard drives containing several terabytes of information consisting of, among other things, FBI case reports, search warrant applications and results (e.g., Apple iCloud accounts and email accounts), bank and financial records, and the contents of numerous physical devices (e.g., cellular phones, computers, and hard drives)."

It is widely rumored that Stone has a taste for certain kinds of...digital content, shall we say, that is very data-intensive. Still, even accounting for that, "several terabytes" is a lot. By way of comparison, the entirety of Wikipedia is 5.6 TB.

Earlier this week, CNN legal analyst Elie Honig observed that based solely on the known facts of the case, Stone appears to be guilty of numerous federal crimes that he has not yet been charged with, including several different flavors of conspiracy. Honig's view is that there are only two plausible explanations for why these charges have not been filed: (1) Mueller does not feel he has enough evidence, or (2) Other, currently unindicted, folks will be included in the additional charges, and Mueller is waiting until that time comes to add to Stone's list.

Since lack of evidence is apparently not a problem, it suggests that explanation #2 is the correct one. And given Mueller's tendency to start at the bottom of the ladder and work his way up, it could well be that conspiracy charges are coming against members of the Trump campaign who are higher up than Stone, and have not yet been charged. Since Mueller has already suggested he will follow Justice Dept. guidelines against indicting the President himself, and since Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn have already gone up the river, that leaves us with a fairly short list: The Trump children and children-in-law, and maybe Steve Bannon or Jeff Sessions. This is all speculation at this point, but fairly well-founded speculation. (Z)

Trump Is Clearly Preparing to Declare a National Emergency

The members of Congress who are trying to negotiate a compromise on wall funding have remained relatively quiet about their work (especially since they've met only a couple of times). Donald Trump, by contrast, has not. He's been active on Twitter, sending out his thoughts on the subject. For example, he posted another one of his pro-wall videos where he stands outside the White House and yells at the camera:

pic.twitter.com/6wK5He4pk5

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 31, 2019

Why he cannot do the recordings indoors and use his "inside voice" is not known. Before the video was tweeted, he also posted these messages, back-to-back:

Large sections of WALL have already been built with much more either under construction or ready to go. Renovation of existing WALLS is also a very big part of the plan to finally, after many decades, properly Secure Our Border. The Wall is getting done one way or the other!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 31, 2019

Lets just call them WALLS from now on and stop playing political games! A WALL is a WALL!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 31, 2019

Further, the President was also eager to share his opinion with anyone who would listen that the negotiations going on in Congress are not going to be successful. He said:

I don't think they're going to make a deal. I see what's happening. They're all saying, "Oh, let's do this but we're not giving one dime to the wall." That's okay, but if they're not going to give money for the wall, it's not going to work. And if it's not going to work, then the politicians are really wasting a lot of time.

These are not the words of a man who is going to be satisfied with some sort of "threading the needle" kind of solution, like appropriating money for drones and x-rays and calling that a "virtual wall." If his position really is "$5.7 billion in new wall money or bust," then his prediction that it won't work out is dead on, since Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said on Thursday that, "There's not going to be any wall money in the legislation."

If Trump is not going to accept whatever compromise comes out of the committee, and he's not going to drop this issue, that leaves him with two options. The first, of course, is to shut down the government again. It hardly needs to be said that doing so went badly for the President and the GOP the first time, and that it would surely go even worse for them a second time, especially since the second one would presumably be even more difficult to bring to an end than the first one was. Further, Trump would be at serious risk of a rebellion, and an embarrassing veto override.

That means there is just one option remaining: Declaring a national emergency. That course of action would be consistent with the poll that Trump had campaign manager Brad Parscale conduct, in which a slight majority of respondents expressed support for the wall, but a slight majority also opposed another government shutdown. Be that as it may, a "national emergency" would allow him to be on the majority side of both questions, as he sees it. No wall would be built, at least not anytime soon, but at least he could go back to the base and claim progress without having to shut down the government again.

There is also another question worth asking: If Trump is going to declare an emergency anyhow, why doesn't he just get to it? We can think of only one answer to this question. Presumably, one or more folks in Trump's orbit have persuaded him that waiting three weeks will give him some cover to claim "Hey, I tried other approaches, and only resorted to 'national emergency' when nothing else worked." However, Trump himself is notably impatient and almost completely unable to delay gratification. He often struggles to wait for a day or two when doing so would be advisable, so for him three weeks is an eternity. He simply cannot keep a lid on it for that long. In undermining the negotiations with his tweets and his ongoing commentary, however, it means he's also undermining his own political cover. But he either does not see things that way, or he just does not care. (Z)

Trump's Numbers in Michigan Are Not Good

Yesterday, we had an item about the states of the Midwest/Rust Belt, and whether the Democrats can retake the White House without winning at least one of the states there that Donald Trump won in 2016 (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio). The conclusion: It's doable, but the blue team would be left with virtually no margin of error.

It's still early, of course, but one new poll suggests the blue team might not have to worry too much. It's a WDIV/Detroit News poll done by Glengariff Group (a good polling house), and it's full of bad news for the President's standing among Michiganders. To wit:

It is those last two items that should be most worrisome for the President. It is pretty clear that his support is baked in at right around 42% of the Michigander vote, while a near-majority is already committed to voting against him, and a sizable minority is available to the blue team for the taking. Further, Trump isn't just losing to "generic Democrat," he's losing to every kind of Democrat the party might nominate, from progressive minority woman to old-school party-establishment white man. Given that the President won the Wolverine State by only 10,704 votes, he's obviously in a bad position.

If the Democratic candidate takes all of the EVs that Hillary Clinton won plus Michigan, then that would put them at 248, and would leave them with many paths to victory. Florida, with its newly arrived Puerto Ricans and its newly re-enfranchised felons would do it (277-161). Or, the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would do it (278-260). Or, the hard-hit-by-the-tariff duo of Iowa and Ohio would do it (272-266). Or, the once-red-but-probably-now-purple North Carolina and Arizona would do it (274-264). It's still very early, and it's just one poll, but the position of the eventual Democratic nominee—whoever they might be—is looking pretty strong. (Z)

Mick Mulvaney Has Big Plans...for Mick Mulvaney

In addition to still being the Director of OMB, Mick Mulvaney is "Acting" White House Chief of Staff. Nobody has explained exactly what that means, or how long he is supposed to be "acting," a state of affairs that is likely a byproduct of Mulvaney not really wanting the job, but Donald Trump being unable to find anyone else suitable to do it. In any event, Politico reported on Thursday that Mulvaney is already plotting his next move: He really wants to take over the Dept. of Commerce.

Commerce currently has a leader, of course, in the form of Wilbur Ross. It had already been reported, back in November, that Ross was on thin ice and that Mulvaney was angling to replace him. However, "Mick the Knife" has apparently renewed his efforts in the last week or two, which suggests that: (1) Ross is a short-timer, regardless of who succeeds him, and (2) Mulvaney does not want to go down in flames, as Reince Priebus/John Kelly did, and does not want to be a part of whatever Donald Trump is going to do on the wall-funding front. It's not impossible that Mulvaney could land the Commerce gig and still be Chief of Staff (after all, that would be the same number of posts he currently holds). However, Mulvaney presumably would try to avoid that setup. And even if Ross stays on, or if someone else takes over Commerce, it seems likely that Mulvaney is going to push soon for his time as chief of staff to come to an end. (Z)

Cain for Federal Reserve?

Speaking of appointments, there are two open seats on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and, after Nellie Liang withdrew from consideration, only one Trump nominee to fill them. In view of this, according to Bloomberg News, Donald Trump interviewed former Godfather's Pizza CEO and 2012 GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain as a possible nominee for the open seat.

Trump's thinking here is plain. Outside of the occasional Ben Carson, this administration is so white it could sneak across the Alaska-Canada border en masse. Cain would add a little diversity, such as it is. Further, Cain was chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's board of directors for several years. So, he must be qualified for a promotion, right?

Maybe not so much. The directors of the various local branches of the Fed are a glorified luncheon club that meets once a month to chat over finger sandwiches and to make recommendations that the actual bankers at the Fed largely ignore. Beyond that, Cain has had a number of accusations of sexual harassment and misconduct lodged against him. Oh, and he has no training in economics or economic policy.

There is also one other problem, at least from Trump's vantage point. Cain's stated views on economic policy, particularly on interest rates (he likes 'em high), are basically the polar opposite of the President's positions. For that reason alone, it's unlikely that Cain gets the nod. And if he does, then it's more evidence that Trump really does value appearances over substance. (Z)

Democratic Presidential Candidate of the Week: Cory Booker

He's about to jump in, so we are going to get this in just under the wire. But not by much. 15 minutes after we posted this profile, Booker chucked his hat in the already crowded ring.

Cory Booker

You can access the list of candidate profiles by clicking on the 2020 Dem candidates link in the menu to the left of the map. (Z)


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