State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Clinton 35% Trump 63% +28% Nov 30
Alaska Clinton 38% Trump 53% +15% Nov 30
Arizona Clinton 45% Trump 50% +5% Nov 30
Arkansas Clinton 34% Trump 60% +26% Nov 30
California Clinton 61% Trump 34% +27% Nov 30
Colorado Clinton 48% Trump 43% +5% Nov 30
Connecticut Clinton 54% Trump 42% +12% Nov 30
D.C. Clinton 93% Trump 4% +89% Nov 30
Delaware Clinton 53% Trump 42% +11% Nov 30
Florida Clinton 48% Trump 49% +1% Nov 30
Georgia Clinton 46% Trump 51% +5% Nov 30
Hawaii Clinton 65% Trump 28% +37% Nov 30
Idaho Clinton 29% Trump 58% +29% Nov 30
Illinois Clinton 55% Trump 39% +16% Nov 30
Indiana Clinton 38% Trump 57% +19% Nov 30
Iowa Clinton 42% Trump 52% +10% Nov 30
Kansas Clinton 36% Trump 58% +22% Nov 30
Kentucky Clinton 33% Trump 63% +30% Nov 30
Louisiana Clinton 38% Trump 58% +20% Nov 30
Maine Clinton 48% Trump 45% +3% Nov 30
Maryland Clinton 61% Trump 35% +26% Nov 30
Massachusetts Clinton 61% Trump 34% +27% Nov 30
Michigan Clinton 47% Trump 48% +1% Nov 30
Minnesota Clinton 47% Trump 46% +1% Nov 30
Mississippi Clinton 40% Trump 58% +18% Nov 30
Missouri Clinton 38% Trump 57% +19% Nov 30
Montana Clinton 34% Trump 58% +24% Nov 30
Nebraska Clinton 33% Trump 61% +28% Nov 30
Nevada Clinton 47% Trump 45% +2% Nov 30
New Hampshire Clinton 48% Trump 47% +1% Nov 30
New Jersey Clinton 55% Trump 42% +13% Nov 30
New Mexico Clinton 48% Trump 40% +8% Nov 30
New York Clinton 59% Trump 38% +21% Nov 30
North Carolina Clinton 47% Trump 51% +4% Nov 30
North Dakota Clinton 28% Trump 64% +36% Nov 30
Ohio Clinton 44% Trump 52% +8% Nov 30
Oklahoma Clinton 29% Trump 65% +36% Nov 30
Oregon Clinton 52% Trump 41% +11% Nov 30
Pennsylvania Clinton 48% Trump 49% +1% Nov 30
Rhode Island Clinton 55% Trump 40% +15% Nov 30
South Carolina Clinton 40% Trump 56% +16% Nov 30
South Dakota Clinton 32% Trump 62% +30% Nov 30
Tennessee Clinton 35% Trump 61% +26% Nov 30
Texas Clinton 43% Trump 53% +10% Nov 30
Utah Clinton 29% Trump 45% +16% Nov 30
Vermont Clinton 61% Trump 33% +28% Nov 30
Virginia Clinton 50% Trump 45% +5% Nov 30
Washington Clinton 56% Trump 38% +18% Nov 30
West Virginia Clinton 27% Trump 69% +42% Nov 30
Wisconsin Clinton 46% Trump 47% +1% Nov 30
Wyoming Clinton 23% Trump 70% +47% Nov 30


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Doug Jones 50% Candidate unknown 48% +2% Nov 04
Alaska Candidate unknown 45% Dan Sullivan 49% +4% Nov 04
Arizona Candidate unknown 41% Martha McSally 53% +12% Nov 04
Arkansas Candidate unknown 40% Tom Cotton 57% +17% Nov 04
Colorado Candidate unknown 45% Cory Gardner 50% +5% Nov 04
Delaware Chris Coons 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Nov 04
Georgia Candidate unknown 45% David Perdue 53% +8% Nov 04
Idaho Candidate unknown 34% Jim Risch 66% +32% Nov 04
Illinois Dick Durbin 53% Candidate unknown 43% +10% Nov 04
Iowa Candidate unknown 44% Joni Ernst 52% +8% Nov 04
Kansas Candidate unknown 43% Candidate unknown 52% +9% Nov 04
Kentucky Candidate unknown 41% Mitch McConnell 56% +15% Nov 04
Louisiana Candidate unknown 43% Bill Cassidy 57% +14% Nov 04
Maine Candidate unknown 32% Susan Collins 68% +36% Nov 04
Massachusetts Ed Markey 62% Candidate unknown 38% +24% Nov 04
Michigan Gary Peters 55% Candidate unknown 41% +14% Nov 04
Minnesota Tina Smith 53% Candidate unknown 43% +10% Nov 04
Mississippi Candidate unknown 39% Cindy Hyde-Smith 59% +20% Nov 04
Montana Candidate unknown 40% Steve Daines 58% +18% Nov 04
Nebraska Candidate unknown 31% Ben Sasse 65% +34% Nov 04
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 52% Candidate unknown 48% +4% Nov 04
New Jersey Cory Booker 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Nov 04
New Mexico Tom Udall 55% Candidate unknown 45% +10% Nov 04
North Carolina Candidate unknown 47% Thom Tillis 49% +2% Nov 04
Oklahoma Candidate unknown 29% Jim Inhofe 68% +39% Nov 04
Oregon Jeff Merkley 55% Candidate unknown 38% +17% Nov 04
Rhode Island Jack Reed 71% Candidate unknown 29% +42% Nov 04
South Carolina Candidate unknown 39% Lindsey Graham 55% +16% Nov 04
South Dakota Candidate unknown 29% Mike Rounds 51% +22% Nov 04
Tennessee Candidate unknown 32% Candidate unknown 62% +30% Nov 04
Texas Candidate unknown 34% John Cornyn 62% +28% Nov 04
Virginia Mark Warner 49% Candidate unknown 48% +1% Nov 04
West Virginia Candidate unknown 35% Shelley Moore Capito 62% +27% Nov 04
Wyoming Candidate unknown 18% Mike Enzi 72% +54% Nov 04