Tipping-Point State

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Clinton, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and Hawaii and nothing else, she gets 7 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If he wins only Oklahoma and Wyoming, he gets 10 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Clinton have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Clinton's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Clinton Trump Lead Clinton EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
4%
89%
 3
 538
Hawaii
4
65%
28%
37%
 7
 535
Vermont
3
61%
33%
28%
 10
 531
Massachusetts
11
61%
34%
27%
 21
 528
California
55
61%
34%
27%
 76
 517
Maryland
10
61%
35%
26%
 86
 462
New York
29
59%
38%
21%
 115
 452
Washington
12
56%
38%
18%
 127
 423
Illinois
20
55%
39%
16%
 147
 411
Rhode Island
4
55%
40%
15%
 151
 391
New Jersey
14
55%
42%
13%
 165
 387
Connecticut
7
54%
42%
12%
 172
 373
Oregon
7
52%
41%
11%
 179
 366
Delaware
3
53%
42%
11%
 182
 359
New Mexico
5
48%
40%
8%
 187
 356
Virginia
13
50%
45%
5%
 200
 351
Colorado
9
48%
43%
5%
 209
 338
Maine
4
48%
45%
3%
 213
 329
Nevada
6
47%
45%
2%
 219
 325
New Hampshire
4
48%
47%
1%
 223
 319
Minnesota
10
47%
46%
1%
 233
 315
Wisconsin
10
46%
47%
1%
 243
 305
Pennsylvania
20
48%
49%
1%
 263
 295
Michigan
16
47%
48%
1%
     279
     275
Florida
29
48%
49%
1%
 308
 259
North Carolina
15
47%
51%
4%
 323
 230
Georgia
16
46%
51%
5%
 339
 215
Arizona
11
45%
50%
5%
 350
 199
Ohio
18
44%
52%
8%
 368
 188
Texas
38
43%
53%
10%
 406
 170
Iowa
6
42%
52%
10%
 412
 132
Alaska
3
38%
53%
15%
 415
 126
Utah
6
29%
45%
16%
 421
 123
South Carolina
9
40%
56%
16%
 430
 117
Mississippi
6
40%
58%
18%
 436
 108
Missouri
10
38%
57%
19%
 446
 102
Indiana
11
38%
57%
19%
 457
 92
Louisiana
8
38%
58%
20%
 465
 81
Kansas
6
36%
58%
22%
 471
 73
Montana
3
34%
58%
24%
 474
 67
Tennessee
11
35%
61%
26%
 485
 64
Arkansas
6
34%
60%
26%
 491
 53
Nebraska
5
33%
61%
28%
 496
 47
Alabama
9
35%
63%
28%
 505
 42
Idaho
4
29%
58%
29%
 509
 33
South Dakota
3
32%
62%
30%
 512
 29
Kentucky
8
33%
63%
30%
 520
 26
Oklahoma
7
29%
65%
36%
 527
 18
North Dakota
3
28%
64%
36%
 530
 11
West Virginia
5
27%
69%
42%
 535
 8
Wyoming
3
23%
70%
47%
 538
 3