Unfortunately, we can't determine which party is likely to win this one because it is a jungle primary. There are five serious candidates:
- Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA)
- Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA)
- Raphael Warnock (D) pastor of Martin Luther King's church
- Matt Lieberman (D) a liberal Democrat who is definitely not like his father, Joe Lieberman
- Ed Tarver (D) a Black former state senator
There are also 23 not-so-serious candidates. The jungle primary is Nov. 3. The runoff between the top two finishers is on Jan. 6, 2021. It is entirely possible that Loeffler and Collins will be the top two, in which case a Republican will win the seat, even if we don't know which one until January. If Warnock makes it to the top two, the runoff will be partisan.
Here is the most recent polling:
- Loeffler 26%
- Collins 17%
- Warnock 17%
- Lieberman 13%
- Tarver 3%
Tarver, like Warnock, is Black. If he were to pull out and support Warnock, that would increase the chances of Warnock making it into the top two, but it is up to him. Lieberman seems unlikely to withdraw, although if Biden were to offer him a cabinet position in return, maybe he would.