Dem
51
GOP
49
On account of reapportionment, Montana now has two representatives, Matt Rosendale (R) and Ryan Zinke (R). Neither of them likes the job. Both want to be a senator. Montana does have two senators, but only one of them, Jon Tester (D-MT), is up in 2024 and the other one, Steve Daines (R-MT), is a Republican. Expect the shootout at the O.K. Corral to move to Montana next year.
The same pattern will play out in Ohio and West Virginia as ambitious Republicans are eyeing the opportunity to take on an incumbent Democratic senator in a very red state. It won't be as easy as it looks on paper, though. Tester, as well as Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Joe Manchin (D-WV), won in 2012 and in 2018 as well. They are all battle-tested veterans with a history of winning elections in red states. In Montana, for example, Rosendale ran against Tester in 2018 and lost. Zinke resigned as secretary of the interior in a scandal. Tester knows that very well and might just bring it up if needed. One thing working against Tester, however, is that the incoming chairman of the NRSC is none other than Daines, who will surely be willing to shovel large amounts of money into the Montana race, no matter whom the GOP candidate is.
While Montana is a red state—Donald Trump won it in 2020 by 16 points—West Virginia is a much redder state, as Trump won that one by 39 points. On paper, that looks even more promising for Republicans to knock off incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) is already in, but West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey (R) has already said he is not afraid of Mooney. Of course, Manchin beat Morrisey in 2018 and nothing has really changed since then, so Morrisey probably really wouldn't even be the favorite if he tries again. Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), a coal billionaire, is also kicking the tires about a run. The other West Virginia senator, Shelley Moore Capito (R), said she expects Mooney to have company in the race. It could easily be a three-way or four-way race.
Across the border in Ohio, plenty of folks want to replace Brown. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) is probably the best known, but state Sen. Matt Dolan (R) and businessman Bernie Moreno are likely to throw their hats in the ring as well. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) has gone to the trouble of telling folks not to forget him. It could get crowded.
Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) has announced a run for governor, so that will be an open seat in 2024. Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) is almost certainly in. So is Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN). AG Todd Rokita (R) is likely to run either for governor or senator, but hasn't decided which would be easier. Same is true for Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN), who is retiring. Jennifer-Ruth Green (R), who lost a House race in 2022, might jump in as well. So it is likely to be a very crowded primary. (V)