Senate races 2022

Here is a compact table listing all of the Senate candidates.

The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the two independents as Democrats):

  • 14 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2022 and 36 seats are not up, for a total of 50 seats
  • 21 Republican seats are up for reelection in 2022 and 29 seats are not up, for a total of 50 seats

The map favors the Democrats. Every one of the 14 Democrats up for reelection is running in a state that Joe Biden won in 2020. In contrast, two of the GOP-held seats are in states that Biden won (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Also, there are currently six open seats (Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma special, and Pennsylvania), all of them occupied by Republicans at present. At least two more Republican-held seats (Iowa and Wisconsin) could yet become open-seat races.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones following.

Click on a picture for the candidate's webpage.
Click on a name for the candidate's entry in Wikipedia.
Click on a party (D) or (R) for the state party.

The indicates a race to watch.

All links open in a new window. Type CTRL-W in the window to close it (Command-W on a Mac).


Democratic-held seats

Arizona   

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Mark Kelly
Mark
Kelly

(D)
Blake Masters
Blake
Masters

(R)
In 2020, Mark Kelly won the right to finish off the term of the late John McCain. In 2022 he has to run for a full term on his own, and probably with a less favorable electorate. Still, he is wildly popular among Democrats (87-6 approval) and did win the general election in 2020. He's a Navy combat veteran in a state full of veterans, not to mention a former astronaut. The Republicans' best candidate, by far, is term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey. However, Ducey declined to run for the Senate because he knows Donald Trump would have campaigned against him. So the Republicans' first problem was finding a candidate. The obvious candidate was AG Mark Brnovich, who indeed filed, but Trump hates him because he didn't take Trump's wild claim of 35,000 fake votes in Pima County seriously. Billionaire Peter Thiel decided to help out by asking one of his very right-wing employees, Blake Masters, to run, with the promise of tens of millions of Thiel's dollars. Masters entered the primary and crushed Brnovich by 20 points, and also beat wealthy solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon by 10 points. So Trump's endorsement and Thiel's money is enough to squash a genuine conservative who has twice won statewide election in Arizona.

California

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Alex Padilla
Alex
Padilla

(D)
Mark Meuser
Mark
Meuser

(R)
Alex Padilla was appointed to the seat vacated by Kamala Harris when she was sworn in as vice president. Nevertheless, he has run for and won statewide election before. Most recently (2018), he ran for secretary of state in California and won by 22 points. He is also a Latino is a state full of Latinos. He will cruise to an easy victory. Lawyer Mark Meuser is wasting his time running.

Colorado

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Michael Bennet
Michael
Bennet

(D)
Joe O'Dea
Joe
O'Dea

(R)
Colorado is a light-blue state, but Bennet won narrow victories in 2010 and 2016. He got some bad luck when Lauren Boebert decided not to try for a promotion and an extreme right-wing candidate, Ron Hanks, lost the Republican primary to moderate Joe O'Dea. Bennet is still the favorite, but he will have to work hard to keep his job.

Connecticut

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Richard Blumenthal
Richard
Blumenthal

(D)
Leora Levy
Leora
Levy

(R)
Richard Blumenthal is a popular Democratic senator in a blue state. The Republicans don't have anyone serious to run against him. Leora Levy, a member of the RNC who previously served as Donald Trump's ambassador to Chile, won the Republican nomination. Trump has endorsed her. Silly Donald. That's going to knock his batting average down a few points.

Georgia   

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Raphael Warnock
Raphael
Warnock

(D)
Herschel Walker
Herschel
Walker

(R)
Raphael Warnock won a very close special election in 2020 to finish out the term to which Johnny Isakson was elected in 2016. After Isakson resigned from the Senate due to poor health, the governor appointed Kelly Loeffler to the seat. She is married to the guy who runs the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange and acted the part, greedy and aloof to the core. Stacey Abrams managed to register hundreds of thousands of new voters, many of them Black and Warnock narrowly beat Loeffler. The 2022 race will be a real barnburner as Warnock tries for a full term. Donald Trump has persuaded former football player Herschel Walker to run, and that cleared the field and made Walker the nominee. He's a weak candidate given that he lives in Texas, has no political experience, and has several skeletons in the closet, including spousal abuse and some dishonest business practices. Warnock is the slight favorite, though it is at least possible Walker will be saved by ballot shenanigans.

Hawaii

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Brian Schatz
Brian
Schatz

(D)
Bob McDermott
Bob
McDermott

(R)
Brian Schatz is a popular Democratic incumbent in a very blue state with no high-profile Republican opponent. He will cruise to an easy win, no matter who the GOP sacrificial lamb is. The lamb the Republicans chose is state Rep. Bob McDermott, a Marine Corps veteran. He has eight adult children. Add himself and his wife and he is sure to get at least 10 votes. That's not going to do the job though.

Illinois

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Tammy Duckworth
Tammy
Duckworth

(D)
Kathy Salvi
Kathy
Salvi

(R)
Tammy Duckworth is popular in this blue state and the Republicans nominated a lawyer, Kathy Salvi, whose only political experience was running for the House in 2006 and losing a Senare race. Now she can add running for the Senate and losing to her resume.

Maryland

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Chris Van_Hollen
Chris
Van Hollen

(D)
Chris Chaffee
Chris
Chaffee

(R)
Maryland is a blue state and the only Republican who might be able to beat Chris Van Hollen is Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD), but Hogan declined to run for the Senate. Ten totally unknown Republicans filed just for the hell of it and a guy named Chris Chaffee won. We are absolutely certain the next senator from Maryland will be Chris something, and something won't be "Chaffee."

Nevada   

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Catherine Cortez_Masto
Catherine
Cortez Masto

(D)
Adam Laxalt
Adam
Laxalt

(R)
Nevada is a swing state with a bluish tint. It will be a competitive race, no matter who the Republicans nominate against Catherine Cortez Masto, who is going for her second term. The most likely Republican is Adam Laxalt, the former Nevada attorney general and grandson of former governor Paul Laxalt. He would be a strong candidate, making this one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Masto is a Latina (in a state full of Latinos) but she doesn't speak Spanish, which many Latinos hold against her. This is a race to watch closely.

New Hampshire   

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Maggie Hassan
Maggie
Hassan

(D)
Don Bolduc
Don
Bolduc

(R)
Former governor and current senator Maggie Hassan is up for a second term in this swingy state. Gov. Chris Sununu would have made a powerful opponent, but he decided he wanted no part of the mess in D.C. and is running for another term as governor. The Republicans don't have any other strong candidates. The strongest one appears to be Afghanistan veteran Don Bolduc, who is Trumpy as can be, although he doesn't have an official endorsement from Trump (yet). Bolduc is leading the GOP primary, which is Sept. 13. For the time being, we will assume he will be the Republican nominee, although upsets are always possible.

New York

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Chuck Schumer
Chuck
Schumer

(D)
Joe Pinion
Joe
Pinion

(R)
Normally the Senate majority leader is a shoo-in for relection. Schumer's only real worry is not any Republican. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had decided to primary him, it would have been bloody, but she didn't. The Republican is a former television host, Joe Pinion. He is wasting his time running as Schumer will crush him.

Oregon

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Ron Wyden
Ron
Wyden

(D)
Jo_Rae Perkins
Jo Rae
Perkins

(R)
Ron Wyden is a popular progressive senator in a progressive state. He is an excellent fit for his state. It is doubtful that any serious Republican will challenge him. Perennial candidate Jo Rae Perkins ran for the GOP nomination and got it because nobody else wanted it. But Wyden will slaughter her in the general election.

Vermont

Challenger Challenger Notes           Polls
Peter Welch
Peter
Welch

(D)
Gerald Malloy
Gerald
Malloy

(R)
Pat Leahy is calling it quits after eight terms in the Senate. The logical heir to the seat is Vermont's sole representative, Peter Welch. Welch is 74, which is a bit elderly to start a Senate career though. But he is running and won the Democratic nomination easily. The only Republican in the state who has a chance of winning the seat is Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) and he declined to run. Gerald Malloy, a graduate of West Point and a career soldier won the GOP nomination. He has been endorsed by multiple gun and Christian groups. That's not going to fly in Vermont. Kinda dumb on the part of the Republicans because moderate Republicans, like Scott, actually can win in Vermont. Welch can spend the fall thinking about how to decorate his new office rather than bothering to campaign.

Washington

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Patty Murray
Patty
Murray

(D)
Tiffany Smiley
Tiffany
Smiley

(R)
Patty Murray likes to call herself a "little old lady in tennis shoes." Washingtonians love her. She will win her sixth term easily, no matter who the Republicans throw at her. They nominated nurse Tiffany Smiley. She smiles a lot, but she won't be smiling in the evening of Nov. 8.





Republican-held seats

Alabama

Challenger Challenger Notes           Polls
Katie Britt
Katie
Britt

(R)
Will Boyd
Will
Boyd

(D)
Richard Shelby, a former Democrat turned Republican, is 87 and decided to call it quits, so this race will be an open seat. Shelby is a traditional conservative and is not wild about what has happened to the Republican Party under Donald Trump. But even as a noncandidate, he will be a real factor in the race since he has millions of dollars in his campaign account. His chosen successor is his chief of staff, Katie Britt. Normally that might be enough to get her the nomination. But Rep. Mo Brooks tried to get a promotion and Donald Trump pushed him for all he is worth. Until he dropped him like a hot potato. Britt and Brooks ended up in a runoff and Trump waited until the last minute to endorse Britt, who is not Trumpy, over Brooks, who is very Trumpy. She won the runoff and will crush Will Boyd (D) in the general election.

Alaska

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Lisa Murkowski
Lisa
Murkowski

(R)
Candidate unknown
Candidate
unknown

(D)
Lisa Murkowski probably will win again, despite Donald Trump doing his utmost to defeat her. She is out of step with the Party of Trump and may not enjoy being an outcast in her own party. Complicating the race is the new top-four ranked choice voting system for the general election. Donald Trump has already endorsed Kelly Tshibaka for the Republican nomination, but she is barely known in Alaska. Democrats don't have a great candidate here in Pat Chesbro, but against Tshibaka, Chesbro might actually have a chance. So Chesbro has to hope that Tshibaka beats Murkowski in the first round, setting up a Tshibaka-Chesbro race in the second round.

Arkansas

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
John Boozman
John
Boozman

(R)
Natalie James
Natalie
James

(D)
John Boozman is a solid conservative in a very red state and the Democrats have no bench here at all. He had a minor threat in the Republican primary but overcame it easily. He will be reelected easily. His opponent is Natalie James, a minor official whose job is finding people to buy blighted properties in Little Rock and restore them. She has no chance at all.

Florida   

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Marco Rubio
Marco
Rubio

(R)
Val Demings
Val
Demings

(D)
This race could be interesting. Marco Rubio is not much of a campaigner and not a terribly good senator, but he is a Cuban-American from Miami, which counts for a lot. Rep. Val Demings is the favorite for the Democratic nomination, although she has to knock off kooky leftist Alan Grayson first in the primary. Law-and-order voters could be attracted to Demings, the former chief of police in Orlando. It is a race to watch; Rubio's built-in advantages make him the favorite at this point, but an upset is not out of the question.

Idaho

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Mike Crapo
Mike
Crapo

(R)
David Roth
David
Roth

(D)
Mike Crapo is a solid conservative in a solidly conservative state. The Democratic Party of Idaho is like the Loch Ness monster—rumored to exist, but actual evidence is scarce. They have not managed to get a senator elected since the 1970s, and that streak will continue in 2022. The Democrats did manage to find a candidate, David Roth, but he will be crushed, no matter what he does. Crapo will win his fifth term with ease.

Indiana

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Todd Young
Todd
Young

(R)
Thomas McDermott
Thomas
McDermott

(D)
Although Indiana is a red state, occasionally a Democrat is elected to the Senate from the Hoosier State. Evan Bayh did it in 2000 and 2006. Joe Donnelly did it in 2012. Still, Todd Young is the heavy favorite here, The only Indiana Democrat who might be able to beat him is Pete Buttigieg and he just got a new job. If Buttigieg wants to be a senator, running against Mike Braun in 2024 might be a better choice for him. The mayor of Hammond, IN, Thomas McDermott, is the Democratic candidate, but he is the longest of long shots.

Iowa

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Chuck Grassley
Chuck
Grassley

(R)
Michael Franken
Michael
Franken

(D)
Chuck Grassley has been a senator from Iowa since Methusaleh was in short pants. He's popular in the state, has few enemies, and is good at campaigning. In addition, he is good at bringing home the pork in a state full of pigs. The "full Grassley" (a campaign swing through each one of Iowa's 99 counties) is famous all over Iowa. Grassley wants an eighth term, and it is his for the taking. That is unhappy news for Democratic nominee former admiral Michael Franken. Grassley will be 95 by the time his seat next comes up, but Iowans don't seem to mind.

Kansas

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Jerry Moran
Jerry
Moran

(R)
Mark Holland
Mark
Holland

(D)
The last time the state's voters sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate, they also gave their electoral votes to an upstart governor from New York who promised a "New Deal" for Americans. In other words, Jerry Moran does not need to be worried about the Democrats, and as a proud member of the Tea Party Caucus, his right flank is also safe. There is no reason to believe that 2022 will end the GOP's winning streak. If Gov. Laura Kelly (D) had decided to challenge Moran, it could have been a serious race since she has won statewide election in Kansas, but she didn't. The Democrats nominated Rev. Mark Holland, a Methodist pastor. In November, he will get some first-hand experience with being crucified.

Kentucky

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Rand Paul
Rand
Paul

(R)
Charles Booker
Charles
Booker

(D)
Rand Paul is one of the two senators who is strongly disliked by both parties (Ted Cruz is the other). Democrats keep putting up strong candidates in Kentucky Senate races, but they always lose badly, even against Mitch McConnell who is perennially unpopular in his own state. The Democrats nominated Charles Booker, a state representative. This is one of those races where if Paul is photographed in bed with a live boy, a dead girl, and a goat, Booker might have an outside chance. But most likely, Paul will get his third term with ease. As an aside, although his father, Ron Paul, was a very libertarian (although technically a Republican) congressman from Texas, the senator is not named for dad's heroine, Ayn Rand. His full name is Randal Howard Paul.

Louisiana

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
John Kennedy
John
Kennedy

(R)
Candidate unknown
Candidate
unknown

(D)
Louisiana is a pretty red state but it does elect Democrats statewide from time to time. One of them is Gov. John Bel Edwards, who is in his second and last term now. If he had decided to challenge John Kennedy, this could have been a competitive race. But he didn't, so Kennedy will cruise to reelection.

Missouri   

Challenger Challenger Notes           Polls
Eric Schmitt
Eric
Schmitt

(R)
Trudy Valentine
Trudy
Valentine

(D)
For reasons best known to himself, Roy Blunt decided to retire. He could have won another two or three terms easily, but he apparently doesn't like the Senate any more. This created an open seat. Disgraced former governor Eric Greitens (R), who blackmailed a woman with nude photos he took of her against her will, tried to make a comeback. State Republicans panicked. Fortunately AG Eric Schmitt and Rep. Vicky Hartzler also entered the race and Schmitt won. The Democratic candidates were former Marine Lucas Kunce and Trudy Busch Valentine. Valentine is a heiress to the Anheuser-Busch beer fortune and won easily. Her campaign won't lack for money, but Missouri, which used to be a bellwether, has become a red state, so Schmitt is favored.

North Carolina   

Challenger Challenger Notes           Polls
Ted Budd
Ted
Budd

(R)
Cheri Beasley
Cheri
Beasley

(D)
This is going to be the most expensive race in the country, maybe the most expensive Senate race in all of U.S. history. Richard Burr is retiring due to an insider trading scandal. Former governor Pat "Bathroom bill" McCrory tried to make a comeback, just like Greitens in Missouri, only McCrory's problem is the anti-trans bathroom bill he signed, not his personal behavior. Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R), who went on to win his primary. On the Democratic side, former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley won easily. With an open seat in a state that is almost 50-50, expect tons on money to pour in from out of state. It will be quite a show for political junkies. The primary was originally March 8, 2022 but the state Supreme Court moved it to May in order to first hear two gerrymandering cases.

North Dakota

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
John Hoeven
John
Hoeven

(R)
Katrina Christiansen
Katrina
Christiansen

(D)
In contrast to Missouri and North Carolina, there is nothing to see here. Move on. John Hoeven will get his third term with 75% or more of the vote, just like in 2010 and 2016. For whatever reason, University of Jamestown engineering professor Katrina Christiansen filed for the Democratic nomination and got it. It won't do her any good though.

Ohio   

Challenger Challenger Notes           Polls
J.D. Vance
J.D.
Vance

(R)
Tim Ryan
Tim
Ryan

(D)
Rob Portman doesn't like what has happened to the Republican Party and is retiring. The race to succeed him could be interesting. The former swing state has become quite Republican in presidential races, but the other senator, Sherrod Brown, is a liberal Democrat. The Republican side was wild and wooly. Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance has a lock on the hillbilly vote. Also the billionaire vote as billionaires Peter Thiel and Robert Mercer are funding him. Interesting team. Hillbillyonaires? Donald Trump is backing Vance so he won the primary easily with Trump's support and Thiel's money. The Democratic nominee is Rep. Tim Ryan. Polling shows Vance will only a small lead over Ryan.

Oklahoma

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
James Lankford
James
Lankford

(R)
Madison Horn
Madison
Horn

(D)
Oklahoma is one of the reddest states in the nation. James Lankford won a special election in 2014 and a regular election in 2016 in a landslide. He'll win another regular election in a landslide in 2022. Madison Horn, a cybersecurity professional, is the Democratic nominee. It's not clear why she is bothering though. Maybe she wants some name recognition so she can run for town council somewhere in a couple of years.

Oklahoma-special-election

Challenger Challenger Notes           Polls
Markwayne Mullin
Markwayne
Mullin

(R)
Kendra Horn
Kendra
Horn

(D)
James Inhofe is retiring from the Senate on Jan. 2, 2023. There will be special election for his seat in November 2022. Rep. Markwayne Mullin won the GOP nomination and barring a miracle for his opponent, former U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn, he's going to get the upgrade.

Pennsylvania   

Challenger Challenger Notes           Polls
Mehmet Oz
Mehmet
Oz

(R)
John Fetterman
John
Fetterman

(D)
This is by far the Democrats' best pickup chance. Pat Toomey is retiring so there is an open seat in a blue state and the blue team has a deep bench here. To start with, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), a giant with a Harvard degree and the ambience of a Hells Angel is in. He is also very progressive. Rep. Conor Lamb (D) also jumped in. Lamb is a centrist who has a history of winning in red districts, but who does not have a history of winning statewide elections, since he's never run in one. Fetterman won the primary easily. Donald Trump endorsed Army veteran Sean Parnell but Parnell dropped out after his wife accused him of beating her and a judge awarded her custody of their children, suggesting that the judge believed her story. TV doctor Mehmet Oz, who lives in New Jersey, and who many doctors believe is a complete quack is running but the Republican establishment wants no part of him. NRSC chairman Rick Scott convinced wealthy hedge fund manager, David McCormick, who lives in Connecticut, to run. Donald Trump decided to endorse the quack, putting him at odds with the NRSC. Oz won the primary by 900 votes and McCormick, who never really wanted the job, conceded. Fetterman is running funny ads with famous people from New Jersey asking Oz to come home to emphasize that he lives in New Jersey.

South Carolina

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Tim Scott
Tim
Scott

(R)
Krystle Matthews
Krystle
Matthews

(D)
Tim Scott was appointed to the Senate by then-governor Nikki Haley after the resignation of Jim DeMint in 2013. Putting a Black man in the Senate was a bold move by Haley. She didn't know if he could win statewide in the 2014 special election in a state not known for being friendly to Black politicians. But he won very easily by 24 points. Of course, that was against a Black woman who had no political experience. In 2016 he beat a Black man by 24 points. However, the Democrats nominated another Black woman in 2022 so probably she will lose by 24 points like the first time. Maybe they should try a straight white Christian man sometime. Does (R) trump bigotry in South Carolina?

South Dakota

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
John Thune
John
Thune

(R)
Brian Bengs
Brian
Bengs

(D)
This is another one of those elections where we knew the results even before the Democrats picked a candidate: John Thune will win in a landslide. The Democrat is Navy veteran Brian Bengs, but he is wasting his time running.

Utah

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Mike Lee
Mike
Lee

(R)
Evan McMullin
Evan
McMullin

(I)
Utah Democrats basically conceded that there is no way a Democrat can get elected to the Senate from Utah so they went for Plan B. They are backing independent Evan McMullin in an effort to get rid of Mike Lee, who was part of the conspiracy to keep Donald Trump in office after he lost the election. Text messages show that Lee is right in the middle of the conspiracy, so getting rid of him and replacing him with another conservative, but one who was not trying to overturn the election seems like the best they can do.

Wisconsin   

Incumbent Challenger Notes           Polls
Ron Johnson
Ron
Johnson

(R)
Mandela Barnes
Mandela
Barnes

(D)
Before being elected to the Senate, Johnson said he would retire after two terms. The second term is almost over so now he had to either keep his promise or break it. Despite being extremely Trumpy in a swing state, the lure of power was too great and he decided to break his promise to the voters and run for reelection. The Democrats are ecstatic because they think running against him will be easier than winning an open seat. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI), state Treasurer Sarah Godlewksi (D) and a few unknown Democrats ran for the nomination. All of them except Barnes dropped out before the primary, so it will be Johnson vs. Barnes. The general election will feature a young Black progressive against an old white Trumpy conservative. Johnson got under 52% in both of his previous races, so this one is expected to be close.