Dec.07

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

McCarthy Has a Challenger...

As we've noted, Kevin McCarthy has never impressed us with his political skills. And of the four caucuses in Congress, his is far and away the most unruly. So, even if he's willing to kiss the ring (and anything else that needs to be kissed) in order to keep Donald Trump happy, it might not be enough. There has been much talk among the MAGA fanatics about denying McCarthy the speakership. You can't beat someone with nobody, of course, but the MAGA crew now has an actual candidate, as Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has put himself forward as a challenger.

You never know what the MAGA members are thinking, or if they are thinking at all. We can tell you, to a certainty, that Biggs is never, ever going to be elected as speaker. We assume that even he knows that. So, what's the goal here? Well, we can think of a few possibilities:

• It's For Show: The people who are electing the MAGA members to Congress pretty much hate anyone who is to the left of Genghis Khan. Such people are all filthy liberals and need to be destroyed, in their view. So, it could be that Biggs & Co. need to demonstrate that, if it was up to them, McCarthy would be tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail.
  
  
• It's For Closure: The MAGA types, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) in particular, have never struck us as having much control of their emotions. Undoubtedly, they are disappointed in the midterm results. They can't blame the main culprits for that, namely themselves and their Dear Leader. So, perhaps this is just venting; the Congressional version of a temper tantrum.
  
  
• It's For a Non-McCarthy Speaker: While it's not going to be Biggs, the MAGA members might have persuaded themselves that if they can frustrate McCarthy's aspirations, they might get someone more right-wing than he is. Which is really saying something, because the Minority Leader is very right-wing.
  
  
• It's For Leverage: This seems the likeliest possibility. McCarthy would give just about anything to be Speaker. Not his spine or his testicles, of course, since he doesn't have those things. But plum committee assignments? Definitely. An agreement to launch 20 investigations into Hunter Biden's laptop, as opposed to just 10? Certainly. Prime office space in the Rayburn office building? No problem. Needless to say, the bigger the threat seems to be, the more concessions that might be extracted.

The Speaker elections will take place in early January, and so we're not likely to find out exactly what's going on until then. Although, as long as we're on this subject, we get a lot of questions about this situation. And though we've answered the big ones a couple of times each, it's probably useful to review. So, here are few notes to keep in mind:

• McCarthy remains the favorite to become speaker. He's much closer to the promised land than anyone else is. Even if he can't herd the MAGA members, and they hold firm after dozens (or hundreds) of votes, he's not necessarily dead in the water. It is unlikely that House Democrats would be willing to vote for him directly. However, the House can vote to change the rules, and to choose a speaker based on a plurality of votes cast, rather than an outright majority. It's been done twice before, and it could be done again. In exchange for certain concessions (which may or may not be made public), the Democrats might vote to suspend the normal rules, which would resolve the situation without putting them in the position of supporting McCarthy directly.
  
  
• If it's not McCarthy, then the next likeliest possibility is a moderate Republican, backed by a coalition of Republicans and Democrats. If this did come to pass, then our guess is that the person would come from the Problem Solvers Caucus, which literally exists to promote bipartisan cooperation. There are roughly two dozen Republicans who are members of the Caucus.
  
  
• It is not likely to be someone to the right of McCarthy. The other Republicans don't want the headache of 2 years' worth of leadership from a potential loose cannon. Nor do they want to start the next 2 years by catering to the demands of the MAGA crew. That would set a... problematic precedent.
  
  
• There is zero chance that it will be Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY). The Democrats might go for that, although maybe not the progressives, since Cheney is still a conservative Republican. And the Republicans would never go for it; she's just too toxic for many Republican voters.
  
  
• There is less than zero chance that it will be Donald Trump. The majority of House Republicans won't say it openly, but they would be thrilled to be rid of Trump. So, they are certainly not going to hand him one of the two or three biggest platforms the U.S. system of government has to offer. And that's before we consider the fact that they don't want to spend every day answering reporters' questions about the latest outlandish thing Trump said/did.

Anyhow, politics watchers have about a month to ponder the situation, and to stock up on popcorn. (Z)