Dem 51
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GOP 49
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McCarthy's Got Troubles

Can you remember the last time Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) had a serious disagreement? We can't. Surely those two were not always on the same page, because how could they be? But whenever they disagreed, they clearly managed to keep that behind closed doors and to eventually work it out, so that the larger world was none the wiser.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) isn't even speaker yet (and may never be), and he's already feuding with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). McConnell has been at this for a very long time, and sees shutting the government down as a loser for the GOP. So, he has made clear, in private, that he would like to work out a deal to keep everything funded. McCarthy went on Fox to openly and loudly criticize that plan. The Kentuckian is used to dealing with these kinds of disputes behind closed doors, and not on primetime cable TV, and was reportedly blindsided by the whole thing. They say a picture is worth 1,000 words; take a look at this one of McConnell and McCarthy from yesterday:

Kevin McCarthy addresses reporters, while McConnell is
walking away with a nasty scowl on his face

You don't need a body language expert to know that McConnell is not a happy fellow.

This is not the first time the two minority leaders have not been on the same page, and it's not likely to be the last time. Ultimately, the primary concern of Pelosi and Schumer, and of McConnell, is their political party as a whole. McCarthy's primary concern is his own power, which he can only hope to maintain by kowtowing to the fringy elements of the GOP. And so, he and his counterpart on the other side of the building will often fail to see eye-to-eye, and certainly won't have as successful a partnership as Pelosi and Schumer.

And speaking of kowtowing to the fringy elements, it's becoming clear what the price will be if McCarthy wants enough votes to become speaker. This has been hinted at for months, but it is now out in the open that what the MAGA folks want is the adoption of a very liberal (no pun intended) "motion to vacate" rule. For a long time, once a speaker was in place, it was pretty much smooth sailing. Then, about 8 years ago, some tea party-types discovered that the rules allowed a single member to bring a motion to boot the speaker from their position. Shortly thereafter, John Boehner became victim of this "insight."

When the Democrats gained control of the House, they changed the rule. At the moment, a motion to vacate can only be brought by a party leader (i.e., the House Minority and Majority Leaders), and even then it requires a majority vote of that leader's caucus. That means, as a practical matter, that it takes 90+ votes for a motion to vacate, and to trigger a new election for speaker. The MAGA crew wants that number to be reset back to one, which would mean that Damocles' sword would be constantly hanging over McCarthy's head. He is apparently going to counter with an offer to set the number needed for a motion to vacate at 20 or 30, which is far less than 90+ but far more than one. If the MAGA members insist on their position, then McCarthy will probably give in, because he wants the speakership so bad he can taste it. But then he'd be bent even further over the MAGA barrel, which in turn would make his relationship with Mitch McConnell even more tenuous. Why does McCarthy want this job, again? (Z)



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