Dec.28

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

2023 Elections, Part I: Domestic Elections

The end of the year is nearly upon us, and we have a mountain of material related to that fact. Today, let's take a look at the biggest domestic elections that will be held next year:

• Governor, Kentucky (May 16 primary, November 7 general): Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is eligible for another term, and has already announced his candidacy and filed the necessary paperwork. He has also said that he will stick with his current #2, Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman (D). Beshear has drawn two primary opponents, neither of them serious.
  
  As you may have heard, Kentucky is a pretty red state. And so, Republican candidates are champing at the bit for a chance to knock off Beshear. Already, 11 of them have thrown their hats into the ring. That list includes Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron, former ambassador to the U.N. Kelly Craft, Kentucky State Auditor Mike Harmon and Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles. The first problem for these folks is that even if they survive the sure-to-be-bruising primary, it will be difficult to recover, particularly since winning will likely require tacking far-right. The second problem is that Beshear is, by approval rating, the most popular Democratic governor in the country, with 59% approval vs. 35% disapproval.
  
  
• Governor, Louisiana (October 14 jungle-style general, November 18 runoff if needed): Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is term-limited, so all he can offer his party is a template for winning in red Louisiana (hint: you better be anti-choice, no matter what the national party says). The Democratic bench is not completely empty here, and the Party would be pretty happy if they could get the current mayor of New Orleans (LaToya Cantrell) or her immediate predecessor (Mitch Landrieu) to jump in. Both are said to be exploring possible runs. Failing that, it will probably be Louisiana Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson, Mayor Sharon Weston Broome of Baton Rouge or Luke Mixon, who is a Navy veteran and was a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022. Given that Louisiana is 35% Black, and that more than half of Louisiana Democrats are Black, it is worth noting that Cantrell, Wilson and Broome are all Black while Landrieu and Mixon are white.
  
  On the Republican side, Louisiana AG Jeff Landry is in, and many other prominent Republicans are considering a bid, including Sen. John Kennedy, Rep. Garret Graves, Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser, Louisiana State Treasurer John Schroder and Majority Leader of the Louisiana State Senate Sharon Hewitt. All of these folks—you may want to brace yourself for this—are white. If Kennedy jumps in, he would be the prohibitive favorite. But this is another one where a bruising primary could be bad news for the red team. Assuming nobody gets 50% on Oct. 14, the runoff will take place a little more than a month later, which doesn't leave much time to pivot.
  
  For what it's worth, Louisiana has something of a "throw the bums out" tradition. The last time that a governor handed power over to a member of his own party was 1988, when crooked governor Edwin Edwards was primaried by Buddy Roemer (who later switched to the Republican Party). The last time it happened without wonky externalities was 1972. Anyhow, if Louisiana voters hold to form, then the Democrats are in trouble. Bel Edwards, incidentally, is one of the least popular governors in the country, with 49% approval against 44% disapproval.
  
  
• Governor, Mississippi (August 8 primary, November 7 general): This will be the only 2023 gubernatorial election to feature a Republican incumbent. Maybe. Gov. Tate Reeves is eligible for another term, and in deep-red Mississippi, running for reelection would usually be automatic. However, the Governor is even more unpopular than John Bel Edwards, with just a 48% approval rating. That outpaces only Dan McKee (D-RI), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Doug Ducey (R-AZ) and Kate Brown (D-OR); all but McKee will be out of office within the next 2 weeks. And Mississippi, as you may have heard, has ongoing problems with the safety of its drinking water. High gas prices might make people angry, but it's nothing like being unable to get a glass of water or to take a proper shower. So, it's no surprise that Reeves has yet to commit to a second run. He's got until Feb. 1 to decide.
  
  Despite Mississippi's redness, the GOP bench is not deep, since the various federal officeholders have no interest in a job that is both low-power and comes with term limits. If Reeves stays out, or maybe even if he jumps in, the potential Republican contenders include Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives Philip Gunn, Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson, and Mississippi AG Lynn Fitch. It is too bad Gunn wasn't born 100 years ago; he's got the perfect name to be a hardboiled private detective.
  
  On the Democratic side, well, there aren't a whole lot of options. Mississippi Public Service Commissionner for the Northern District Brandon Presley has expressed interest, and then there's... well, that's about it. Since Ronald Reagan left office, Mississippi has sent a grand total of one Democrat to the governor's mansion (Ronnie Musgrove, who served 2000-04). There are no Democrats in statewide office right now, and the only Democratic member of the state's congressional delegation is Rep. Bennie Thompson, who is not likely, at the age of 74, to give up his position as one of the highest profile members of the House in order to tilt at windmills.
  
  The only way this election maybe gets interesting is if Bill Waller Jr., former Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court and son of former governor Bill Waller, runs as an independent, which he is considering. If the Democrats and the non-MAGA Republicans in the state unify behind Waller, he could well give Reeves (or any other Republican) a run for their money.
  
  
• State Legislature, Louisiana (October 14 jungle-style general, November 18 runoff if needed): The state Senate is 27 R, 12 D. The state House is 69 R, 34 D, 2 I. Those numbers are not going to change enough to matter.
  
  
• State Legislature, Mississippi (August 8 primary, November 7 general): The state Senate is 36 R, 16 D. The state House is 74 R, 45 D, and 2 I, with one vacancy. Those numbers are also not going to change enough to matter.
  
  
• State Legislature, New Jersey (June 6 primary, November 7 general): The state Senate is 24 D, 16 R. The state House is 46 D, 34 R. It is theoretically possible that the Republican Party could flip the upper chamber, as all 40 seats are up, but it's not likely. Note that New Jersey had no lieutenant governor from 1757 to 2010, and though that office has now been created, its holder does not break ties in the state Senate. So, if the GOP flips exactly four seats, the two parties will have to hammer out a power-sharing agreement.
  
  
• State Legislature, Virginia (June 20 primary, November 7 general): The state Senate is 21 D, 19 R. The House of Delegates is 52 R, 48 D. This is the one everyone will be watching, as every one of these seats is up, and both chambers could possibly flip. Democrats will work very hard to maintain (or win) control of at least one of the two, so as to frustrate the potential plans of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) when it comes to things like voter ID laws.
  
  
• Mayor, Chicago (February 28 general, April 4 runoff if needed): Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) is running for reelection, and in Chicago, they tend to reelect their mayors, over and over. But she's come under fire due to rising crime rates and allegations that she covered up police misconduct. So, she has drawn many challengers, including Rep. Chuy García, state Rep. Kam Buckner, Chicago City Councilwoman Sophia King, Chicago City Councilman Roderick Sawyer, Chief Executive Officer of Chicago Public Schools Paul Vallas and Cook County Board of Commissioners member Brandon Johnson. All of the serious contenders are Democrats and, excepting García and Vallas, all are Black. Thus far, the only non-Democrat to jump in is perennial candidate Willie Wilson, who is a member of... The Willie Wilson Party. No Republican came within a country mile of mounting a bid, and the deadline for filing paperwork has now passed. In the likely case that no candidate gets 50% of the vote on Feb. 28, then the top two finishers will face off in April.
  
  
• Mayor, Philadelphia (May 16 primary, November 7 general): Mayor Jim Kenney (D) is term-limited, but it's Philadelphia, so the only question is which Democrat will win the right to succeed him. Thus far, 10 members of the blue team have declared their candidacies, including five of the 12 members of the city council. There has been no polling, and nobody seems to have any idea which of the 10 candidates is a frontrunner. The only Republican to consider a run is councilmember David Oh, but he'd have to resign his council seat, which means that, barring a miracle, he'd be out of work on Nov. 8.
  
  
• Mayor, Houston (November 7 general, December 16 runoff if needed): The office is officially nonpartisan, but everyone knows. Mayor Sylvester Turner (D, er... "I") is term-limited, so he won't be on the ballot. While it's a red state, it's a blue city, so all of the serious candidates to replace him are Democrats; former Houston City Councillor Amanda Edwards, state Sen. John Whitmire and former vice chair of the Texas Democratic Party Chris Hollins. Edwards is considered the frontrunner. As with Chicago and Philadelphia, no Republican has filed, or even expressed serious interest.
  
  
• Mayor, San Antonio (May 6 general, June 4 runoff if needed): Like most other large cities, even in Texas, San Antonio is quite blue. In the gubernatorial election this year, every council district save one went for Beto O'Rourke. Mayor Ron Nirenberg is gunning for a fourth and final term, and he'll get it. He is officially an independent, but describes himself as a "progressive independent." In other words, he's more a Bernie Sanders-type independent than a Kyrsten Sinema-type independent.
  
  
• Mayor, Dallas (May 6 general, June 4 runoff if needed): Mayor Eric Johnson (officially I, but really D) is popular and has announced his reelection bid. Thus far, he has drawn no opponents. If someone wants to take a crack at him, they have until Feb. 17 to decide.

We won't have quite as many elections to write about as this year, though we'll still have a fair bit to cover. On Friday, we'll review the main foreign elections scheduled for 2023. (Z)