Nov.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 48

Ties 3

GOP 49

What Will Trump Do?

In the days leading up to the election, there was a lot of news, meaning we didn't have time to properly consider all of it. What time and mental energy we had, we tended to spend on people who were actually on the ballot this year, particularly in elections that looked to be close. We gave far less attention to people like, say, Donald Trump, who were not running this year, and who may never hold office again. Consequently, while we did have an item on the former president's promise of "a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15," we didn't think all that much about it.

Now, however, we have thought it all the way through. And we're left with a question that we probably should have asked in the original item: What, exactly, was the point of that tease? By not actually making the announcement, he didn't get the attention, the love from the crowd and the fundraising boost he so craves. And, at the same time, he committed himself to... something, and just days before a giant X-factor, namely the elections, might change the calculus.

We tend to assume there was no method to the madness. Our guess is that Trump very badly wanted to announce, but that he was under enormous pressure not to do so from all sides. So, he went as far as he could without actually defying his advisers and the RNC. Characteristically, he neglected to account for the possibility of a bad, embarrassing night that might make a Nov. 15 announcement ill-timed.

Whatever the thought process was before the election, the fact is that Trump had a lousy day on Tuesday. And how, he's pointing fingers at nearly everyone. He's ripping into the members of his inner circle; blaming them for persuading him to support people like Mehmet Oz (R-NJ). He's also lashing out at the media. As per usual, there's one very obvious culprit he's not pointing the finger at. And it would be soooooooo easy, since Trump undoubtedly copious amounts of time looking into a mirror.

And now he's got this November 15 promise, and about 3 days left to figure out what to do. There would appear to be three options:

• Announce a presidential bid on November 15: This is the most likely option, we think. Trump has been itching to announce for months, and probably can't hold back much longer. He wants to goose his fundraising, which has slowed to a trickle, and he wants to push aside some of the "DeSantis Is on the Rise" headlines. This is the only way he might plausibly achieve those things.
  
  
• Announce a delay/say nothing on November 15: Trump's inner circle is urging him announce a postponement because they think the timing is bad for him. Other Republicans are urging him to announce a postponement because they don't want him to cost them the Georgia U.S. Senate race. If Trump does delay, or he "forgets" to say something, he'll look weak, since everyone will know why. He hates that. On the other hand, the RNC would keep paying his legal bills. He loves that. So, maybe that will carry the day.
  
  
• Announce something else on November 15: Trump could make some other "big" announcement on November 15. Maybe Trump-branded erectile dysfunction pills or that users can get red "verified" checkmarks on Truth Social for the bargain price of $5/month or something like that. To most, it would be obvious that the former president was just saving face. But the MAGA faithful would probably accept that this was the plan all along, and then would hustle to their local convenience store to get their supply of Trumpstenze.

Whatever is going to happen, we won't have to wait long to find out. (Z)