Dem 50
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Ties 1
GOP 49
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Where Things Stand

Arizona announced another 100,000 votes yesterday and, despite the fact that they came mostly from Maricopa County, they favored Republican Kari Lake by about 8 points (i.e., 54-46). Consequently, Lake's hopes of succeeding Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) are still alive.

That doesn't mean Lake's in good shape, though. With 93% of the vote reporting, Democrat Katie Hobbs has 50.5% of the vote (1,211,595 votes) and Lake has 49.5% (1,185,584). That's a gap of just over 26,000 votes. Of the estimated 89,000 or so votes outstanding, Lake would need 57,500 of them. That's more than 64%. At the end of the day Thursday, she needed 53%, at the end of the day Friday she needed 54%, and at the end of the day Saturday she needed 55.5%. In other words, although Lake had an unexpectedly good day on Sunday, she actually took a step back, as she's simply running out of votes with which she might make up the gap. We imagine this one will be called sometime today.

Moving on to the house, here's an update of the projections chart we've been running for the past few days:

Outlet Rep Seats Dem Seats Toss-ups 24-hour Net Change
AP 212 203 20 Republicans +1
The New York Times 212 204 19 Republicans +1
The Wall Street Journal 212 204 19 Republicans +1
Politico 212 203 20 Republicans +1
FiveThirtyEight 211 206 18 No change
CNN 212 204 19 Republicans +1
Fox 212 204 19 Republicans +1
ABC News 211 206 18 No change
CBS News 214 210 11 No change
NBC News 219 216 0 No change

Recall that NBC does include a "margin of error" qualifier. It is still ±4, as it was on Saturday.

Clearly, things didn't change much on Sunday. The +1 that some outlets added to the Republican total was Lori Chavez-DeRemer in OR-05. This race was pretty rough for the Democrats; incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader was knocked off in the primary by the more progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner, and now McLeod-Skinner has fallen to Chavez-DeRemer. The Representative-elect might want to make sure her first call is to a marriage counselor. By all indications, she's happily married to physician Shawn DeRemer. However, in a curious coincidence, every single person to occupy this seat since it was created in 1980 has been divorced. So, it's going to be on Chavez-DeRemer to break the curse.

Presumably a number of races greater than zero or one will be called today. Some states either don't count ballots or don't release results over the weekend. Further, there are several states where the deadline for receipt of ballots arrives tomorrow. So, most of the uncertainty about outstanding ballots will be resolved once today's mail is delivered. There will be another group of calls tomorrow, though control of the House might be up the in air for multiple days thereafter, due to how close it is, as well as the possibility of recounts. (Z)

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